The Silver Tsunami & Real Estate

It looks like a real estate correction will be coming as Baby Boomers "exit home ownership." 21 million homes over the next 20 years:
In a market with 6 million houses a year turning over because of routine churn, this is a significant, but not market-changing number. There are also millions of houses built in the first generation after WWII, often small and of cheap construction, that will have their date with a bulldozer over the same period.
 
My DD is 30 and very worried about the environment. We recycle, etc here in the Seattle area. I quietly told her I had been alive for almost 60 years and many "expert" articles etc have been written over these 60 years regarding our environment. Some came true but most of them have not come to pass. Be responsible with our earth, but don't overthink it.

Of course, her having a master's she knows all regarding this topic and me with my 60 years (almost in February) have learned nothing.

I dropped it. But the earth does take care of itself.
 
The WSJ article pointed to “retirement” communities that have been built such as Sun City and The Villages that some believe won’t have enough old people to replace those that die off. It also pointed to some that are changing to accommodate a younger demographic. Sure there will be some winners and some losers like there are with the changes in malls going on right now. Change happens, sometimes good and sometimes not, but I can’t see this as a serious issue that won’t be solved. For us, we live in a neighborhood with many age groups and nationalities so plenty of demand today, and I hope into future.
 
Remember it? I was in charge of ensuring 150 developers and 72 projects could "prove" they were Y2K-proof (basically, that any date fields had space for a whole date). I remember putting up project whiteboards with gold stars and Superman stickers for each project that passed Y2K muster. Yes, I was that corny of a boss (but the developers seemed to like it, or maybe I was ironic enough that they knew the nonsense was for my bosses and not them) :D

:LOL: Yea and remember that Y2K hoax?
 
:LOL: Yea and remember that Y2K hoax?

As someone who was working overnight 12/31/1999, I really don't consider it a hoax. Everyone I knew in IT worked long hours for at least the year leading up to it, and that's why there weren't any disasters. I'm not saying jets would be falling out of the sky, but businesses at least would have had some serious issues if nothing had been done ahead of time. I personally consider the whole Y2K situation to be pretty much the only nation/world-wide example of forethought and proactive planning I've ever seen.
 
I suspect that anyone smart enough to FIRE would already have taken this into account. :cool:
 
I remember a billboard in my home town from the mid-seventies. It showed a picture of the earth superimposed on an analog fuel gauge. The needle was at the quarter-tank mark. The other half of the billboard contained this big text: NOW WHAT?

We must have pulled over and topped off sometime in the past 45 years. :D
 
As someone who was working overnight 12/31/1999, I really don't consider it a hoax. Everyone I knew in IT worked long hours for at least the year leading up to it, and that's why there weren't any disasters. I'm not saying jets would be falling out of the sky, but businesses at least would have had some serious issues if nothing had been done ahead of time. I personally consider the whole Y2K situation to be pretty much the only nation/world-wide example of forethought and proactive planning I've ever seen.
Megacorp worked on it for over a decade. It was an awesome project, or the pieces I was on were. It was very good for my career. As many things that were impossible, somehow got done between midnight and six AM. [emoji41]

I spent the same night in the office, at one time we were checking the phones because they weren't ringing.
 
Regarding predictions, there is always this old saying: 'Alarmists are always correct,. But you just have to know which one is the correct one'
 
Regarding predictions, there is always this old saying: 'Alarmists are always correct,. But you just have to know which one is the correct one'

Here is one you can trust. There will be changes in everything... all in good time.
 
Megacorp worked on it for over a decade. It was an awesome project, or the pieces I was on were. It was very good for my career. As many things that were impossible, somehow got done between midnight and six AM. [emoji41]

I spent the same night in the office, at one time we were checking the phones because they weren't ringing.

I was in charge of large team working on Y2K for Megacorp. We did such a good job, that afterwards, the company sent my me (and my wife) to Hawaii for a few days as a reward. So, I loved Y2K.
 
I still have my Y2K preparedness tool, a double pronged 4' weenie roaster.

All the power plants were supposed to shut down at midnight, no heat no lights, etc... The tool is dtill pristine, never had to use it. Hnaging by by woodburner, just in case.
 
I remember driving from the Phoenix East Valley to the Bay Area very early on the morning of January 1, 2000. Coming up on the Palo Verde nuclear plant off I-10, I craned my neck to see if anything was amiss. No roadblocks, no flashing lights, no sirens. Just the steam from the plant. Probably some relieved operators inside the plant that morning.

I had just closed on a brand new house out in Gilbert and was out there arranging for blinds and landscaping. Cute little cottage, around 1,200 square feet. Redoing the flooring and baseboards now (20 years later) to freshen up the look for the millennial tenants that will likely live there. The last set just bought a house a couple of miles away, a millennial couple with one or two young children. Seems like there is plenty of demand for nice rentals and houses to buy among that age group.
 
The Silver Tsunami & Real Estate

Keep in mind that the beach will be located a little farther inland for the Millenials and their children. Especially in Florida. Rising water probably won't affect the supply of moderate price houses inland, but those fancy high rises might have some issues. And it will be hotter also, for them.



some speculation from the link:

What We’ll See



-Millennial generation Floridians, by this period in their senior years [2050-2075-, will be living in a Florida much changed from that of their youth.

-In Pinellas, as sea-level rise reaches three to four feet, major chunks of the barrier islands will be lost.

-In central Florida, Lake Monroe, far inland, swells to absorb connected lakes.

You’ll need a kayak to get to the door of Cedar Key City Hall.

-Kennedy Space Center and the commercial rocket industry grow increasingly isolated by rising water.

-Fort Lauderdale indeed becomes America’s Venice, with water at residential doorsteps, U.S. 1 under water and downtown awash at three feet and gone at four. The corporate descendant of Flagler’s railroad will need to span long stretches of Broward water — imitating his ill-fated original Overseas Railroad in the Keys — to remain operational.

-At three feet, Miami Beach is gone but for a spine close to the Atlantic. Brickell has standing water, and the Miami River widens up through central Miami-Dade. Water penetration from the former Everglades consumes western urbanized Miami-Dade.

-In the Keys, at 24 inches of rise, nuisance floods occur 672 times per year — nearly every daily high tide.



https://www.floridatrend.com/article/23305/sea-level-rise-and-florida-2050--2075


Yes, the 20-some million Florida residents on the coasts will move “a little farther inland.” No problemo! Ocala is nice and now it will become one of the world’s largest megalopolises. But will the insurance industry continue to insure houses in Florida after the coastal cities become fishing reefs? No problem! We tax payers pick up the tab for flood insurance and FEMA, so keep on truckin’ down I-95 to the Sunshine State, everyone.[emoji12]
 
:LOL: Yea and remember that Y2K hoax?
Not a complete hoax. At the time I worked for a large communications company which had customers still operating systems from the early 60s.

I was one of the folks tasked with meeting with the head of emergency communications for one of the largest cities in the U.S. and telling them that at midnight, Dec. 31, 1999 their 911 system was going to stop working.

That was an interesting meeting! :D
 
Y2K was such a boon to COBOL and FORTRAN programmers that I knew a few who came out of retirement, briefly.
 
The Silver Tsunami & Real Estate

GrayHare said:
Y2K was such a boon to COBOL and FORTRAN programmers that I knew a few who came out of retirement, briefly.



I came close to leaving teaching for a Y2K job that was about 2.5 x more money. But I realized I would be tossed under the bus as soon as the issues were fixed. And lose at least two years of pension earnings at least. More if I could not find new teaching job quickly.
 
My DD is 30 and very worried about the environment. We recycle, etc here in the Seattle area. I quietly told her I had been alive for almost 60 years and many "expert" articles etc have been written over these 60 years regarding our environment. Some came true but most of them have not come to pass. Be responsible with our earth, but don't overthink it.

Of course, her having a master's she knows all regarding this topic and me with my 60 years (almost in February) have learned nothing.

I dropped it. But the earth does take care of itself.


Reminds me of an often repeated quote. "Past performance is no guarantee of future results."
Just because the earth will take care of itself does not mean we will survive more extreme environmental changes (polluted water, acid rain, temperature extremes, polluted air, etc.) And if/when any climate changes like shifting temperatures and rainfall are extreme enough to impact crops there will be a challenge to grow sufficient food. The earth will remain even if we and many other organisms die off. It will just be a different place without us.


Cheers!
 
I came close to leaving teaching for a Y2K job that was about 2.5 x more money. But I realized I would be tossed under the bus as soon as the issues were fixed. And lose at least two years of pension earnings at least. More if I could not find new teaching job quickly.


I could have written that same experience. The choice of staying in academia was a life style choice not a financial decision. Our frugal living and investment decisions were sound enough to insure a stable retirement while our working years were spent in a career path I enjoyed.


Cheers!
 
It looks like a real estate correction will be coming as Baby Boomers "exit home ownership." 21 million homes over the next 20 years:

best news I've heard all day (but it's still early) - my RE taxes have increased 25% in the last 4 years
 
Um, millennials are the "largest generation" so how does that math work? https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/03/01/millennials-overtake-baby-boomers/

Our millennial niece and her husband are in the process of buying a $900K home from some old lady who just died a few months ago.

Y2K was such a boon to COBOL and FORTRAN programmers that I knew a few who came out of retirement, briefly.

+1 DW made an absolute, obscene fortune; of course she had to work till 2AM New Year's Eve of that year but she was able to RE permanently right after that solely on what she had made in the previous year. It was like 20 times her usual annual income.
 
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