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Old 11-26-2019, 10:59 AM   #61
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One thing I'm noticing in my area, is a large amount of new development devoted to 55 and over communities. They're nice, big houses that look like they're great for entertaining, and they have small lots, so there's not much maintenance.
We have friends who moved from a 3000+ sqft house in NJ to a 3000+ sqft house here in a 55+ community north of Denver.
They downsized their real estate taxes from $36K to $3.5K.
But, they finished the basement of the new house and now have a 4000+ sqft house. But, they 2 people living in it, so I guess they need the space for the 8 months a year they are here.
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Old 11-26-2019, 11:43 AM   #62
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We downsized to a 1,976 sq.ft. single level brick home in a 55+ community when DW retired (about 5 years ago). We love the place and neighbors. Plus, our home-related expenses dropped significantly. And, the yard work is done by the HOA contractors.
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Old 11-29-2019, 12:09 PM   #63
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Seems like everybody wants to move closer in to the city, so I can see 55+ communities purpose-built out in the middle of nowhere declining in population.
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Old 11-29-2019, 04:19 PM   #64
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Sure! I've been reading/hearing about "this or that" environmental apocalypse for literally fifty years, maybe more. Which is why whatever "crisis that is about to befall us and our children" of the day doesn't trouble me a bit. New York City was supposed to have been under either water or ice (I forget which) 20 years ago. And while I'll admit to not having been there recently I suspect that if either had happened there would have been a note or two in the local paper about it. It wouldn't have mattered anyway, since we were all going to starve to death or something before then.

Here's an article about it and documents many of the sources for those who insist on links for such things:

https://www.breitbart.com/environmen...y-predictions/
I've been trying to get a handle on the 'OK Boomer' thing (since I'm a boomer), and from what I understand, FWIW, your post would qualify for an 'OK Boomer' response from some random millennial. If my understanding is correct
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Old 11-29-2019, 04:35 PM   #65
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Nothing occurs in a vacuum.

At the same time as the Boomers are "exiting home ownership" and eventually this orb, the largest demographic cohort group ever (numbering over 75 million in the U.S.), the Millenials (aka Echo Boomers, born ~1981 - ~1996) will be doing whatever their generation decides to do as far as real estate. They've got to live somewhere, whether it's in walkable cities, or beachfront huts, or in their grandma's old house.
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Hell, I offered our Hawaii house to all three kids, & all three grandkids, & not a one of them is interested in inheriting it! Go figure.
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Old 11-29-2019, 04:51 PM   #66
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I think it depends on the house. I bought a lace that has plenty of room but is valued below the median for the area. So there should be no problem reselling it.
But people who are buying near the top end with many similar homes nearby may find themselves waiting longer for a buyer.
Because of job uncertainty (and no pension plan to build loyalty), many younger families think it risky to buy. If they rent, they can move on without problem. Plus families are smaller so no 4-5 BR houses really needed, property taxes are climbing, AND fewer people who can buy also. So the current houses will not appreciate as quickly.
That being said, I believe a home should be considered a purchase but not an investment and you should only buy what you need.
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Old 11-29-2019, 06:50 PM   #67
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Hell, I offered our Hawaii house to all three kids, & all three grandkids, & not a one of them is interested in inheriting it! Go figure.
Why type of housing do they live in now? Did they offer any reasons why they aren't interested in your place?

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Old 11-29-2019, 07:01 PM   #68
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Hell, I offered our Hawaii house to all three kids, & all three grandkids, & not a one of them is interested in inheriting it! Go figure.
I'll be glad to inherit it. :-D

Actually, if they don't live in HI, it's probably a smart move. Maintaining it from a distance would be very difficult.
I am assuming it has appreciated more than 250K since you bought it. So the best thing would be just to hang onto it and then after you die, have your executor sell the house and split the money (not sure if taxes on the sale would be due) or pass the title to the one who is the most financially astute (cost basis reset) and then they can sell it as his part of the inheriitance.
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Old 11-29-2019, 07:03 PM   #69
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Don't forget peak oil and the deepwater horizon killed everything in the gulf.
As a Florida resident living only a few miles from the beach I can firmly state the beaches are the same place they were decades ago. I think I will just wait and see how these latest world ending catastrophes work out before I panic.
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Old 11-29-2019, 07:37 PM   #70
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Don't forget peak oil and the deepwater horizon killed everything in the gulf.
As a Florida resident living only a few miles from the beach I can firmly state the beaches are the same place they were decades ago. I think I will just wait and see how these latest world ending catastrophes work out before I panic.
We (U.S.) haven't reached peak oil yet.

And what does your post have to do with the topic of the thread?
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Will you be shorting houses?
Old 11-29-2019, 08:08 PM   #71
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Will you be shorting houses?

In 1972 I bought a nice new condo in southern California for $17,990. My father said I was crazy to pay so much for what he considered an apartment. I sold it a year and a half later for $32,500. Then bought and sold it two more times that decade making money each time. Recently it sold for $450,000 and its almost 50 years old.

Now part of this was the area becoming more sought after. Traditional appreciation. But a lot of it was that our government has been playing funny business with our money in those decades. Gas was 35 cents then too. Our monetary system added a zero and moved the comma when nobody was looking. I don’t see that stopping anytime soon.

Supply and demand is only one part of the equation. My lifelong career was in real estate appraisal. The only two things I know for sure is that you can’t time the stock market, and you can predict when future real estate crashes will happen. I won’t be shorting houses anytime soon.
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Old 11-29-2019, 08:37 PM   #72
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As usual the most important variable for baby boomers selling their houses is location, location, location.
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Old 11-30-2019, 12:11 AM   #73
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Originally Posted by aja8888 View Post
We (U.S.) haven't reached peak oil yet.

And what does your post have to do with the topic of the thread?
Simply more predicted disasters that never came to pass. I believe this kind of thing was mentioned in prior posts.
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Old 11-30-2019, 02:07 AM   #74
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All will depend where you live. I think 55+ communities and areas like southern Florida and other retirement havens will see it. Growing areas with businesses not so much. Housing starts may slow as well.
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Old 11-30-2019, 05:11 AM   #75
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Well 7 bedrooms is a bit much! But the usual logic is that if you can afford it, then the assumption is that the greater appreciation will mean more for the kids, while you enjoy whatever it is. I agree that 55+ dedicated communities are seen a lot of build and price increase fueled by current demand, much like the CCRCs are for the leading boomer wave. Then there will be a glut, and they will be repurposed at lower prices.

We upsized from out last home, but that was mainly because we felt cramped going from 4000sqft to 2000sqft, and wasn’t as happy with the city location & floor plan (as we had counted on) and felt downsized too much, without the actual gains in lower taxes and utilities we thought would be there, even after “modernizing” it. And we got tired of time wasting yard work and road and community noise. We stayed there for 12 years, and thankfully the appreciation of that locale was good (paid 385 sold for 600). For retirement, so far, 3000sqft 2 miles away in the county feels much better, and a new build 3 story townhouse is far quieter & has taxes, utilites plus HOA that is much less what we were paying and the stairs are exercise when we want, but there is a residential elevator for when we need it. 2 large and 2 small bedrooms with one on the ground floor for my mancave, and DW finally got the walk-in clothes closet and grand comfy bath she always wanted. The 2 car garage is a bit cramped (only 21x21), ut still workable. The place is built out and there is a waiting list for people wanting to buy. $50k appreciation in one year. (Of course it’s only real if you sell).

So for many, like us, the choice of housing was to both make money and save money, so that when se did retire, we would get what we wanted. The problem is, what you think you want and then decide you need as you age, change (having a “fun” yard & garden, both veggie & flowers was near top of the list. Not so any more. DW is saying (again) this is the last home. I am more realistic and think possible, but not likely. But I’m enjoying all the extra free time I have in the meantime.
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Old 11-30-2019, 07:58 AM   #76
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LOL! Breitbart. 'Nuf said.
But the rest of the media is so much more reliable
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Hmmmm.....
Old 11-30-2019, 08:05 AM   #77
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Hmmmm.....

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Yes, the 20-some million Florida residents on the coasts will move “a little farther inland.” No problemo! Ocala is nice and now it will become one of the world’s largest megalopolises. But will the insurance industry continue to insure houses in Florida after the coastal cities become fishing reefs? No problem! We tax payers pick up the tab for flood insurance and FEMA, so keep on truckin’ down I-95 to the Sunshine State, everyone.[emoji12]

Why is Florida and its hurricanes the default for picking on people who somehow are bilking insurance companies by selfishly living there? Why do you never hear people complaining about insuring those tornado-prone states like Nebraska, or people who selfishly live in fire-prone states like CA?
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Old 11-30-2019, 08:17 AM   #78
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The article references 2 to 6 feet sea level rise in the next 55 years. That is 11 to 33 mm/yr. Couldn’t find a source for his estimates. One researcher I checked against estimates recent rise at 3 mm/yr, though another estimates around 1.5 mm/yr.
Sources:
https://sealevel.nasa.gov/understand...by-the-numbers

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/09/...level-records/
Yup...there's still plenty of time for those afraid of 3mm a year (1 inch in 8 years) of sea level rise to sell now and get out before it's too late.
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Old 11-30-2019, 08:49 AM   #79
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Originally Posted by Markola View Post
Yes, the 20-some million Florida residents on the coasts will move “a little farther inland.” No problemo! Ocala is nice and now it will become one of the world’s largest megalopolises. But will the insurance industry continue to insure houses in Florida after the coastal cities become fishing reefs? No problem! We tax payers pick up the tab for flood insurance and FEMA, so keep on truckin’ down I-95 to the Sunshine State, everyone.[emoji12]
Why is Florida and its hurricanes the default for picking on people who somehow are bilking insurance companies by selfishly living there? Why do you never hear people complaining about insuring those tornado-prone states like Nebraska, or people who selfishly live in fire-prone states like CA?

Flooding is different than other types of disasters because the Federal Government funds the National Flood Insurance Program, which mostly covers houses in Florida and Texas. This program currently owes about $25B to the treasury, i.e. to other U.S. tax payers, and it's likely to need even more funding in the future. There's no similar publicly funded national insurance program for damage from wildfires, tornadoes or earthquakes.
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Old 11-30-2019, 08:57 AM   #80
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Flooding is different than other types of disasters because the Federal Government funds the National Flood Insurance Program, which mostly covers houses in Florida and Texas. This program currently owes about $25B to the treasury, i.e. to other U.S. tax payers, and it's likely to need even more funding in the future. There's no similar publicly funded national insurance program for damage from wildfires, tornadoes or earthquakes.
FEMA or SBA Assistance May Be Available for Tornado Survivors without Flood Insurance

https://www.fema.gov/news-release/20...-without-flood


DuckDuckGo (not Google) comes through in a few seconds.
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