The Silver Tsunami & Real Estate

I think a realistic concern... especially here in Florida where building abounds... I suspect that supply will be huge and demand will crater in 30 years based on demographics.
 
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Tekward said:
It looks like a real estate correction will be coming as Baby Boomers "exit home ownership." 21 million homes over the next 20 years:
Click to expand...
Boomers won’t all act or ultimately die at once, so I’d expect a long downward price appreciation trend more than a “correction” or something abrupt like the 2008-09 RE meltdown - which RE prices fully recovered from years ago. Prices will respond to excess supply as always, but it’ll be a persistent trend versus a correction. And it’s not like the impact of Boomers on the economy hasn’t been fully discussed, shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone who can fog a mirror.
 
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Yeah, perhaps crater was a poor word to use, but it will a long, steady and very significant decline in demand.
 
pb4uski said:
Yeah, perhaps crater was a poor word to use, but it will a long, steady and very significant decline in demand.
Click to expand...
I was questioning the use of “correction” and “tsunami” as overstating for dramatic effect. I agree it will be as you describe.
 
Winemaker said:
This was predicted by Forbes magazine, prior to 2008. I'm trying to find the link.....
Click to expand...
And they said the same thing would happen as Boomers downsized into smaller homes as they retired, which technically began in 2011. So far so good it seems.

The impact of Boomers on the economy and sectors is one of the most predictable events to plan for, gradual not a tsunami. Unlike recessions, inflation, returns, growth, climate, black swans, geopolitics, asteroids...
 
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I don't worry about it. There never has been and likely never will be a shortage of people who would love to move into my neighborhood.
 
Nothing occurs in a vacuum.

At the same time as the Boomers are "exiting home ownership" and eventually this orb, the largest demographic cohort group ever (numbering over 75 million in the U.S.), the Millenials (aka Echo Boomers, born ~1981 - ~1996) will be doing whatever their generation decides to do as far as real estate. They've got to live somewhere, whether it's in walkable cities, or beachfront huts, or in their grandma's old house.

omni
 
Boomers are also supposed to be selling off all their stocks about now causing the market to go into a long term Bear Market. I guess we’re not selling as fast as we should. Bad Boomers for making these experts look foolish.
 
Figure if the population is still growing someone will need a house. I never went for the McMansion so I'm not worried.
A deadly flu pandemic however could crater prices.
 
omni550 said:
Nothing occurs in a vacuum.

At the same time as the Boomers are "exiting home ownership" and eventually this orb, the largest demographic cohort group ever (numbering over 75 million in the U.S.), the Millenials (aka Echo Boomers, born ~1981 - ~1996) will be doing whatever their generation decides to do as far as real estate. They've got to live somewhere, whether it's in walkable cities, or beachfront huts, or in their grandma's old house.

omni
Click to expand...

Keep in mind that the beach will be located a little farther inland for the Millenials and their children. Especially in Florida. Rising water probably won't affect the supply of moderate price houses inland, but those fancy high rises might have some issues. And it will be hotter also, for them.

some speculation from the link:
What We’ll See

-Millennial generation Floridians, by this period in their senior years [2050-2075-, will be living in a Florida much changed from that of their youth.
-In Pinellas, as sea-level rise reaches three to four feet, major chunks of the barrier islands will be lost.
-In central Florida, Lake Monroe, far inland, swells to absorb connected lakes.
You’ll need a kayak to get to the door of Cedar Key City Hall.
-Kennedy Space Center and the commercial rocket industry grow increasingly isolated by rising water.
-Fort Lauderdale indeed becomes America’s Venice, with water at residential doorsteps, U.S. 1 under water and downtown awash at three feet and gone at four. The corporate descendant of Flagler’s railroad will need to span long stretches of Broward water — imitating his ill-fated original Overseas Railroad in the Keys — to remain operational.
-At three feet, Miami Beach is gone but for a spine close to the Atlantic. Brickell has standing water, and the Miami River widens up through central Miami-Dade. Water penetration from the former Everglades consumes western urbanized Miami-Dade.
-In the Keys, at 24 inches of rise, nuisance floods occur 672 times per year — nearly every daily high tide.

https://www.floridatrend.com/article/23305/sea-level-rise-and-florida-2050--2075
 
Midpack said:
I was questioning the use of “correction” and “tsunami” as overstating for dramatic effect. I agree it will be as you describe.
Click to expand...

Besides 'tsunami', someone else mentioned 'crater'. It reminded me of the proverbial meteor strike that would definitely affect home values.
 
Don't matter.
The USSR nukes blew us up in the 50s, hide under your desk.
Air pollution is so bad we can't leave the house since the 60s.
We all died of skin cancer in the 70s from the ozone layer vanishing.
Anyway, it's all owned by the Japanese who bought all of America in the 80s.

(I believe in human caused warming, but don't think we have the wisdom or knowledge to model what the real effects will be. So let's burn a bit less coal and oil even if it's just for breathable air.)
timo2 said:
Keep in mind that the beach will be located a little farther inland for the Millenials and their children. Especially in Florida. Rising water probably won't affect the supply of moderate price houses inland, but those fancy high rises might have some issues. And it will be hotter also, for them.

some speculation from the link:
What We’ll See

-Millennial generation Floridians, by this period in their senior years [2050-2075-, will be living in a Florida much changed from that of their youth.
-In Pinellas, as sea-level rise reaches three to four feet, major chunks of the barrier islands will be lost.
-In central Florida, Lake Monroe, far inland, swells to absorb connected lakes.
You’ll need a kayak to get to the door of Cedar Key City Hall.
-Kennedy Space Center and the commercial rocket industry grow increasingly isolated by rising water.
-Fort Lauderdale indeed becomes America’s Venice, with water at residential doorsteps, U.S. 1 under water and downtown awash at three feet and gone at four. The corporate descendant of Flagler’s railroad will need to span long stretches of Broward water — imitating his ill-fated original Overseas Railroad in the Keys — to remain operational.
-At three feet, Miami Beach is gone but for a spine close to the Atlantic. Brickell has standing water, and the Miami River widens up through central Miami-Dade. Water penetration from the former Everglades consumes western urbanized Miami-Dade.
-In the Keys, at 24 inches of rise, nuisance floods occur 672 times per year — nearly every daily high tide.

https://www.floridatrend.com/article/23305/sea-level-rise-and-florida-2050--2075
Click to expand...
 
GravitySucks said:
Don't matter.
The USSR nukes blew us up in the 50s, hide under your desk.
Air pollution is so bad we can't leave the house since the 60s.
We all died of skin cancer in the 70s from the ozone layer vanishing.
Anyway, it's all owned by the Japanese who bought all of America in the 80s.

(I believe in human caused warming, but don't think we have the wisdom or knowledge to model what the real effects will be. So let's burn a bit less coal and oil even if it's just for breathable air.)
Click to expand...

You forgot acid rain. Once foresters reported that forest fires create "basic" or "non acidic" wood ash that naturally buffers the "always acid" rain, that disaster was avoided.
 
Does this mean the flow of people to retire in Florida will finally reverse? :)

So, on the one hand, people are building in riskier areas (flood, fire, tornado) with longer commutes becasue land and new housing is so expensive, but on the other hand we are seeing the beginning of a major collapse due to an excess of housing. Something doesn’t compute.

The population continues to grow and the amount of land does not. Demand for housing will continue to grow IMO. Some folks with retirement plans built around their current home value may have to rethink their calculations, but everyone else will be fine. These are markets, and markets adjust to price.
 
Anyone remember the terrible threat of a chilling Earth caused by "nuclear warming"? And I distinctly recall reading that the early 1960's were supposedly bringing in a new "Little Ice Age."

In fact, one of my earliest toddler memories is of my dad and older brother shoveling snow off the roof of our one story house in NJ.
 
timo2 said:
some speculation from the link:
What We’ll See
[…]

https://www.floridatrend.com/article/23305/sea-level-rise-and-florida-2050--2075
Click to expand...

The article references 2 to 6 feet sea level rise in the next 55 years. That is 11 to 33 mm/yr. Couldn’t find a source for his estimates. One researcher I checked against estimates recent rise at 3 mm/yr, though another estimates around 1.5 mm/yr.
Sources:
https://sealevel.nasa.gov/understanding-sea-level/by-the-numbers

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/09/06/historical-european-sea-level-records/
 
Amethyst said:
Anyone remember the terrible threat of a chilling Earth caused by "nuclear warming"? And I distinctly recall reading that the early 1960's were supposedly bringing in a new "Little Ice Age."

In fact, one of my earliest toddler memories is of my dad and older brother shoveling snow off the roof of our one story house in NJ.
Click to expand...

When the steel mills were closing in the late '70's, a lot of coal mines shut down in SW PA and southern WV, forcing huge layoffs. When the theory of "The Little Ice Age" came out, there was much optimism when the plans came out to build a rail line to the Arctic area with trains of coal or soot. This coal/soot was to be disbursed over the ice mass in order to attract the sun's rays and warm the growing ice mass and melt it. I kid you not, but by that time we were now gonna die of aerosols because of the hole in the ozone layer.
 
Amethyst said:
Anyone remember the terrible threat of a chilling Earth caused by "nuclear warming"? And I distinctly recall reading that the early 1960's were supposedly bringing in a new "Little Ice Age."
Click to expand...

Sure! I've been reading/hearing about "this or that" environmental apocalypse for literally fifty years, maybe more. Which is why whatever "crisis that is about to befall us and our children" of the day doesn't trouble me a bit. New York City was supposed to have been under either water or ice (I forget which) 20 years ago. And while I'll admit to not having been there recently I suspect that if either had happened there would have been a note or two in the local paper about it. It wouldn't have mattered anyway, since we were all going to starve to death or something before then.

Here's an article about it and documents many of the sources for those who insist on links for such things:

https://www.breitbart.com/environme...rts-are-0-41-with-their-doomsday-predictions/
 
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