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Old 06-13-2020, 10:16 AM   #61
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Sorry I'm confused, are you trying to make the case that "most" of those who lost their jobs in the shutdown have now returned to full employment?

Or simply that most of the workforce is working...which is very very different.
I am referring to the total US workforce. Why limit a discussion about the strength of the American economy (relative to the stock market gains) to weeks-old, temporary unemployment numbers? I think the stock market reflects the big picture going forward.
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Old 06-13-2020, 10:25 AM   #62
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I am referring to the total US workforce. Why limit a discussion about the strength of the American economy (relative to the stock market gains) to weeks-old, temporary unemployment numbers? I think the stock market reflects the big picture going forward.
I don't think anyone is trying to limit the discussion, but to brush aside lifetime record unemployment data as a non factor seems to be a tad optimistic IMO.

Most of the (still) unemployed might be that way for a while. A lot of small businesses aren't reopening. Those that are have scaled back in a lot of places, or are phasing in reopening.
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Old 06-13-2020, 10:40 AM   #63
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If you’re going to post charts copied from another source you need to provide attribution.
I put that one together based on BLS data and wide range of economist comments from different schools of analysis, hence broad spectrum. Have updated that post noting that.
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Old 06-13-2020, 10:46 AM   #64
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I don't think anyone is trying to limit the discussion, but to brush aside lifetime record unemployment data as a non factor seems to be a tad optimistic IMO.

Most of the (still) unemployed might be that way for a while. A lot of small businesses aren't reopening. Those that are have scaled back in a lot of places, or are phasing in reopening.
Time will tell. The last employment report supports what I am saying and so does the stock market. This is not a typical recession and it will not recover like a typical recession. So far, a "V" shaped recovery is still in the works for the economy and the employment numbers just as we have seen in the markets.

Few predicted the last employment numbers. Employment models that may have been reliable during past recessions are failing, now. I think predictions of a long, slow recovery will also fail going forward. Why would anyone think these models are credible after the last report?

Not that I am a fan of putting our kids in debt, but trillions of $ have been pumped into the economy and much of it has still not been utilized. There is bipartisan talk of a big infrastructure stimulus, as well. We have low inflation and low borrowing costs. Banks are strong and the administration is cutting regulations and barriers to business. A vaccine is only months away and our hospitals are ready for any second wave that may arise. If I were a betting man, I would say our economic upside is beating the downside by a large margin.
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Old 06-13-2020, 10:50 AM   #65
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Source? Unemployment is ~20%ish, and reportedly 2/3 of people on unemployment compensation are making more than when they were working.
And many will no longer have a job and benefits will soon be gone.
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Old 06-13-2020, 11:03 AM   #66
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Most are back to work. We are a country of 300+ million. Even the strip mall type businesses are now reopening. Dozens of states have been largely open for a month, now. Shut downs will not be used, again, unless hospitals become overwhelmed and that is not happening. We have learned to live with the virus and the risks.

The stock market is a leading indicator and the employment numbers are a lagging indicator. Consumer confidence is not particularly useful during times of confusion and unrest, so it is a worthless indicator, right now.

Anecdotally, where I live (Washington state), traffic is back to normal and shopping trips are met with the pre-corona crowds. We are technically still in shut-down mode, but businesses are restarting, anyway.

There are several big cities that are still hurting due to the lack of tourism, restaurants and poor leadership, but the American economy is much wider and deeper than those enclaves.

Just a prediction, not a claim to certainty, but the market should trade side-ways with smaller moves up and down until the vaccine is announced towards the end of the year.
I've tried to understand your statement, "most are back to work." I'm also confused by your mention of 300+ million. The labor force is much smaller than that number.
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Old 06-13-2020, 11:08 AM   #67
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I've tried to understand your statement, "most are back to work." I'm also confused by your mention of 300+ million. The labor force is much smaller than that number.
"Most" is more than 50 percent, so most of the total labor force is back to work and more are joining them daily.
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Old 06-13-2020, 11:08 AM   #68
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Time will tell. The last employment report supports what I am saying and so does the stock market. This is not a typical recession and it will not recover like a typical recession. So far, a "V" shaped recovery is still in the works for the economy and the employment numbers just as we have seen in the markets.

Few predicted the last employment numbers. Employment models that may have been reliable during past recessions are failing, now. I think predictions of a long, slow recovery will also fail going forward. Why would anyone think these models are credible after the last report?

Not that I am a fan of putting our kids in debt, but trillions of $ have been pumped into the economy and much of it has still not been utilized. There is bipartisan talk of a big infrastructure stimulus, as well. We have low inflation and low borrowing costs. Banks are strong and the administration is cutting regulations and barriers to business. A vaccine is only months away and our hospitals are ready for any second wave that may arise. If I were a betting man, I would say our economic upside is beating the downside by a large margin.
I am glad to know a vaccine is months away. How many months is months 4? 6? 12? 18? How effective will any vaccine be? Like the flu shot? Hospitals are ready? SOME hospitals are ready. I have been hearing about an infrastructure bill for almost 4 years since our esteemed occupant of the WH promised it as a foundation piece of his campaign. Probably one of the few things that could actually get through the mess in DC but for reasons that are truly baffling, nothing as usual.
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Old 06-13-2020, 11:12 AM   #69
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I put that one together based on BLS data and wide range of economist comments from different schools of analysis, hence broad spectrum. Have updated that post noting that.
Thank you,
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Old 06-13-2020, 11:16 AM   #70
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I am glad to know a vaccine is months away. How many months is months 4? 6? 12? 18? How effective will any vaccine be? Like the flu shot? Hospitals are ready? SOME hospitals are ready. I have been hearing about an infrastructure bill for almost 4 years since our esteemed occupant of the WH promised it as a foundation piece of his campaign. Probably one of the few things that could actually get through the mess in DC but for reasons that are truly baffling, nothing as usual.
Well, at least we can agree that there is lots of stimulus money out there and that we have low inflation and borrowing costs. Progress.
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Old 06-13-2020, 11:52 AM   #71
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Well, at least we can agree that there is lots of stimulus money out there and that we have low inflation and borrowing costs. Progress.
Yes to a point. The problem is the thousands of small businesses that are not getting the money.
The other problem is that I find it totally reprehensible that the WH will not release info to congress exactly where that 500 million went. Who got what? The congress has no right to know? We have no right to know?
When they withhold info it is because they do not want you to know.
With all the jobs lost, I simply cannot imagine why there is not a HUGE,HUGE, national infrastructure bill. Not some token bill. A country changing bill.
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Old 06-13-2020, 12:07 PM   #72
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"Most" is more than 50 percent, so most of the total labor force is back to work and more are joining them daily.
Are you suggesting that more than 50% of people who lost their jobs in the last few months are now back to work? If so, I call BS.

That would mean an unemployment rate of 11% rather than 16% (peaked at 19% in April vs 3% low),
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Old 06-13-2020, 12:09 PM   #73
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If you are talking about the 500 (really 800) billion for PPP, it went to banks to be loaned out to small businesses. All of the recipients should be identifiable. Tough to keep that secret even if nefarious politicians wanted to.
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Old 06-13-2020, 12:11 PM   #74
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.... With all the jobs lost, I simply cannot imagine why there is not a HUGE,HUGE, national infrastructure bill. Not some token bill. A country changing bill.
+1. If we're going to spend that much money via more deficit spending then let's at least end up with something to show for it like new roads and bridges rather than pissing it away.

Agree with why this hasn't already happened being a mystery... it seems all sides are ostensibly in favor if it... or at least so they say.
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Old 06-13-2020, 12:12 PM   #75
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Are you suggesting that more than 50% of people who lost their jobs in the last few months are now back to work? If so, I call BS.

That would mean an unemployment rate of 11% rather than 16% (peaked at 19% in April vs 3% low),
No. I am referring to the total labor force, as stated. I am also referring to the total economy and total stock market.
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Old 06-13-2020, 12:16 PM   #76
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Right, but saying "most of the labor force is working" is true all the time. Even at the highest unemployment in May, that meant 1 in 7 workers were unemployed.

So saying "well 6 out of 7 are working!" isn't good news. When it becomes 19 out of 20 again, it's good.

And remember, high unemployment means low raises. It reverses the recent trend of rising incomes. Low/no bonuses. Fewer options for those still working to jump around and find new/better jobs. etc. etc.
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Old 06-13-2020, 12:20 PM   #77
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I've tried to understand your statement, "most are back to work." I'm also confused by your mention of 300+ million. The labor force is much smaller than that number.
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"Most" is more than 50 percent, so most of the total labor force is back to work and more are joining them daily.
How about this measurement? People not in the labor force who want a job.

https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2020/9-...n-may-2020.htm
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Old 06-13-2020, 12:29 PM   #78
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How about this measurement? People not in the labor force who want a job.

https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2020/9-...n-may-2020.htm
Backward looking and a poor predictor of future unemployment (or those wanting to work). This was made clear by the past employment report. The stock market is forward looking and it is telling us that the economy is motoring through a temporary set-back.
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Old 06-13-2020, 12:31 PM   #79
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If you are talking about the 500 (really 800) billion for PPP, it went to banks to be loaned out to small businesses. All of the recipients should be identifiable. Tough to keep that secret even if nefarious politicians wanted to.
Sorry, meant 500 billion and they refuse to disclose where the money went. They say it is confidential which is complete b.s.
If it is so tough to keep it a secret, wondering why nobody can get the data.
In basic usage “most” people do not use most as meaning over 50 pct.
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Old 06-13-2020, 12:33 PM   #80
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I am referring to the total US workforce. Why limit a discussion about the strength of the American economy (relative to the stock market gains) to weeks-old, temporary unemployment numbers? I think the stock market reflects the big picture going forward.
Perhaps you are just a very optimistic person, or reading between the lines are drinking some current Admin kool aid.
Powell stated the unemployment rate could be between 9-10% by year end. Is that a V shaped recovery?
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