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Old 06-13-2020, 05:10 PM   #101
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Yeah the Conference Board announced last week that the recession officially started in February, well before any of the lockdowns.
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Old 06-13-2020, 05:13 PM   #102
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I have to disagree that the economy was soaring before the shutdown. The yield curve inverted last summer (not a positive sign) and more importantly, manufacturing data was showing a slow down.

"Manufacturing activity continued to lag in November amid a decline in inventories and new orders, according to the latest ISM Manufacturing reading released Monday.
The reading came in at 48.1 vs. an expectation of 49.4 and the previous month’s reading of 48.3.

Though the level is usually reported as a simple number, it actually denotes the percentage of manufacturers planning to expand operations. A reading below 50 represents contraction; November was the fourth straight month below the expansion level."

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/02/ism-...mber-2019.html



I saw help wanted signs up all around Portland, the problem was no one could afford to take the jobs because they weren't paying living wages.
What were they living on that made a $15 hr job look unaffordable?
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Old 06-13-2020, 05:16 PM   #103
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Yeah the Conference Board announced last week that the recession officially started in February, well before any of the lockdowns.
Wow, seriously? The NBER usually takes a year to determine/announce when a recession started.

Apparently so: https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/08/econo...ber/index.html
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Old 06-13-2020, 05:18 PM   #104
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Sorry, it was the NBER, not the Conference Board.

https://www.freep.com/story/money/20...nd/5320859002/
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Old 06-13-2020, 05:20 PM   #105
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...
I saw help wanted signs up all around Portland, the problem was no one could afford to take the jobs because they weren't paying living wages.
Nice narrative, but it looks to me like unemployment in Portland was 3% before Covid. ~5% is usually considered full employment.

https://www.deptofnumbers.com/unempl...egon/portland/
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Old 06-13-2020, 05:20 PM   #106
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What were they living on that made a $15 hr job look unaffordable?
Minimum wage in Portland Metro is rising to $12.50 an hour beginning next month. You seem to be pulling "facts" out of the air throughout your posts.

https://hr.oregonstate.edu/employees...imum-wage-rate
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Old 06-13-2020, 05:24 PM   #107
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Wow, seriously? The NBER usually takes a year to announcing when a recession started.

Apparently so: https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/08/econo...ber/index.html
A little misleading. The economy peaked in Feb, but the pandemic has pushed it into negative territory since. I'm sensing a little desperation to rewrite history.
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Old 06-13-2020, 05:25 PM   #108
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Nice narrative, but it looks to me like unemployment in Portland was 3% before Covid. ~5% is usually considered full employment.

https://www.deptofnumbers.com/unempl...egon/portland/
It would be pretty tough to live in Portland on less than $24,000 per year.
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Old 06-13-2020, 05:28 PM   #109
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Minimum wage in Portland Metro is rising to $12.50 an hour beginning next month. You seem to be pulling "facts" out of the air throughout your posts.

https://hr.oregonstate.edu/employees...imum-wage-rate
Sorry, Portland is a little behind Seattle. I will ask again what all of these executives in waiting are living on if the available jobs are so beneath them?
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Old 06-13-2020, 05:41 PM   #110
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What was the thread topic again?
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Old 06-13-2020, 05:56 PM   #111
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A little misleading. The economy peaked in Feb, but the pandemic has pushed it into negative territory since. I'm sensing a little desperation to rewrite history.
Recessions start at a peak.
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Old 06-13-2020, 06:25 PM   #112
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Recessions start at a peak.
We had a shock to the economy from the pandemic. If you are claiming that a recession was imminent in early February without the pandemic, you are rewriting history. More likely that the US economy would have continued to improve on the heels of the phase one China trade agreement (without a global pandemic).
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Old 06-13-2020, 06:45 PM   #113
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I didn’t make any claim. NBER announced that as the peak of the prior business cycle which is how they denote the beginning of a recession.
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Old 06-13-2020, 07:08 PM   #114
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I didn’t make any claim. NBER announced that as the peak of the prior business cycle which is how they denote the beginning of a recession.
That is interesting and I do not dispute that a recession could be defined in that way.

The context of my comments, however, was in regards to the state of the US economy prior to the effects of the pandemic. I contend that the economy was doing well and likely would have done even better. A recession certainly would not have occurred over the past few months were it not for the pandemic. Others have suggested that the economy was faltering with or without the pandemic.
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Old 06-13-2020, 07:27 PM   #115
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NBER is the body that determines US business cycles which include recessions and they have their methodology. So it is officially defined that way. https://www.nber.org/cycles/jan08bcdc_memo.html
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Old 06-13-2020, 07:42 PM   #116
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I agree, the stock market is not the economy.
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Old 06-13-2020, 09:26 PM   #117
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I did not come up with the 9% number, the Fed did. My point is that very few were predicting 9% at the end of the year just three weeks ago when we were supposed to hit 20% unemployment.

I think unemployment will be even lower than 9% by the end of the year, but going from 20% to 9% in six months is significant to most people.
You misunderstood my point. I wasn't quibbling with the idea that unemployment might decline to 9% by years end.... that seems plausible.

We did hit close to 20% unemployment in April after the misclassification errors are adjusted for... 19.4% IIRC..., and if unemployment declines to 9% by year end that will be good, but the economy will still be in the crapper, as will stocks.
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Old 06-13-2020, 09:49 PM   #118
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Last quarter of 2019 also was lower than expected so the economy was trending down.
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Old 06-13-2020, 11:22 PM   #119
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I agree, the stock market is not the economy.
Are you sure you really want to stay on topic
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Old 06-14-2020, 02:57 AM   #120
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Are you sure you really want to stay on topic
Will double down.... The stock market is not the economy. Jobs data, income data, spending, inflation, GDP and consumer confidence are better indicators of economy.

As of now, unemployment/jobs data is at its worst in a generation, household income is notably lower than before COVID as many also took paycuts, overall retail sales down, consumer confidence not great despite $600 extra on unemployment that will go away soon. The state of these may return to Feb levels or may not through next year... or 10+ years. No one knows. The longer it takes for recovery, the higher the chances of a secondary downward snowball effect. There's also global dependency to factor.
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