When I wrote my "Hi, I am" post just 2 long, long, long months ago, my portfolio was down just a little - maybe 2% or so. I had been closing in on FIRE, which could have been a few months away. Now my portfolio is down much more: 15% or so. Of course, most of you share this pain, or worse.
I just ran some numbers to calculate how long I would have to work to make up for this drop. I don't mean saving enough to compensate (that's almost impossible at this point in my life), but a combination of savings, better pension numbers and a few less years of withdrawal. It came to 3 years of extra work (and rising) to maintain the same spending levels.
I do have substantial cash-equivalent savings that could sustain me for a decade or two. In 3 years the markets may substantially recover, but of course we could be in for a longer, harder road too.
It's futile to think about what might have been, but I do feel a bit of irony that I had recently moved from an almost absurdly defensive position (due to pre-tenure uncertainties) to a much more balanced position, right on the eve of this brutal market. My rationale for doing so was the newly-enhanced security of my job. Now the latter is quite welcome.
I had the ability to take risk, I had the willingness to do so, but I lacked the obvious need to do so. I don't suppose the third is a deal-breaker, and one could argue that I wasn't in a position to withstand 30-40 years of inflation without being in the game. But my old ways had worked for me. Alas, they would have continued to work very well for me for an extra 6-12 months!
I could still retire early, but a few more years seems in the cards at the moment. I had been struggling to come to this conclusion anyway, and so maybe this difficult period will make that choice a bit easier. It did seem a bit absurd to toss aside the privileges of tenure so soon after winning that battle. And who knows, everything could turn around soon, too!
Cheers.
I just ran some numbers to calculate how long I would have to work to make up for this drop. I don't mean saving enough to compensate (that's almost impossible at this point in my life), but a combination of savings, better pension numbers and a few less years of withdrawal. It came to 3 years of extra work (and rising) to maintain the same spending levels.
I do have substantial cash-equivalent savings that could sustain me for a decade or two. In 3 years the markets may substantially recover, but of course we could be in for a longer, harder road too.
It's futile to think about what might have been, but I do feel a bit of irony that I had recently moved from an almost absurdly defensive position (due to pre-tenure uncertainties) to a much more balanced position, right on the eve of this brutal market. My rationale for doing so was the newly-enhanced security of my job. Now the latter is quite welcome.
I had the ability to take risk, I had the willingness to do so, but I lacked the obvious need to do so. I don't suppose the third is a deal-breaker, and one could argue that I wasn't in a position to withstand 30-40 years of inflation without being in the game. But my old ways had worked for me. Alas, they would have continued to work very well for me for an extra 6-12 months!
I could still retire early, but a few more years seems in the cards at the moment. I had been struggling to come to this conclusion anyway, and so maybe this difficult period will make that choice a bit easier. It did seem a bit absurd to toss aside the privileges of tenure so soon after winning that battle. And who knows, everything could turn around soon, too!
Cheers.
The DOW is now back to July 2003 levels...
Sorry Grep, it looks like you (and I) just delayed ER by a few more months today...
