The US economy will never recover (AARP article)

[NW-Bound]

... I have to think there will be many bodies to dispose of when this is over.

I don't think that the above is a problem if we dispose of the bodies as they drop.

Do not let them pile up, like what I read in Bolivia where decomposed dead bodies are laid out in the street for days.

 

[Telly]

FYI .. I copied the thread title as printed in the Aug/Sept print issue of AARP magazine, page 28. I wish I was getting paid for page clicks!

Uh, yeeaahh... but the titles ahead of it that set the whole context of the article were left out!

The next time I'm out driving, I'll head up a ONE WAY street the wrong way, ignoring the DO NOT ENTER signs. If I get pulled over (that's IF I survive!), I'll tell the officer that I was just obeying the signs, that said "WAY" and "ENTER"

 

[dixonge]

FYI ... My thread title is the same as what's printed in the Aug/Sept 2020 issue of AARP magazine, page 28. I agree it's positive on the US economy.

The print version may differ, but from what I can see it looks like you very selectively copied for this thread title. That's why everyone is miffed...

 

[gerntz]

Not much worrying here either. My concern is that it takes too long for things to be re-normalized, and I will be too old to travel. This bums me out.

Now that's a real & primary concern.

 

[gerntz]

The economy will recover. How many bodies will be left to be buried is another question. So far, given the way our elected leaders at all levels have bungled handling lock-down and now the re-opening, I have to think there will be many bodies to dispose of when this is over.

When people say this, I wonder what they think should have been done & where we'd be now if we had done whatever they think. But I never hear that, just complaints of what did happen.

 

[VFK57]

Until we have an approved by FDA massive vaccination, the economy and the Market will rely on the Feds actions. The longer this pandemic continue, the bigger scar it will leave because a major part of our economy is Service and when do you think it is going to recover? With a swollen Nation Debt and very high Feds balance sheet, the Feds also have limitations on what they could do.

 

[HI Bill]

Now that's a real & primary concern.

+1. With the airlines giving senior pilots and crew early retirement options, with restaurants closing, with theaters closing, with travel severely dimenished, with retail changing....even if we had vaccine available to everyone next year, and even if 70% take it, COVID will still be around and being spread by the 30% of US residents who won't take it, as well as many of the other countries' citizens who won't or can't afford to take it. I think this will have have a lasting economic impact through 2030 at least. Many jobs will take a long time to be recovered, if they ever do. It may take several years for the airlines to retrain and hire new pilots, as demand returns to normal, and it may take Boeing and Airbus years to catch up with replacement planes. I can't see any way around significant airfare increases to pay the added costs.

I'm hoping we see a vaccine next year, and that life can mostly go back to normal. It will take many individuals months to years to dig themselves out of the debt they are incurring now.

 

[Big_Hitter]

Now that's a real & primary concern.

amen - DW got her passport and everything right before I FIRED too

other than that, retiring right before a pandemic wasn't that bad LOL

 

[ikonomore]

....even if we had vaccine available to everyone next year, and even if 70% take it, COVID will still be around and being spread by the 30% of US residents who won't take it, as well as many of the other countries' citizens who won't or can't afford to take it. .

I read recently if 30% to 60% of US resident take the vaccine, that will be enough to stop the spread.

 

[teejayevans]

Normally the flu vaccine become available in September I wonder if they’ll bother?

 

[audreyh1]

Normally the flu vaccine become available in September I wonder if they’ll bother?

I see it advertised already. It’s available now.

 

[rk911]

Normally the flu vaccine become available in September I wonder if they’ll bother?

our local pharmacies and grocery stores have been advertising it's availability for the past few weeks.

 

[frayne]

"The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.” Often attributed to John Kenneth Galbraith but apparently actually from Ezra Solomon, a member of the Council of Economic Advisors during the Nixon administration.

Thanks, I've got a new tag line.

 

[sakowitzm]

"Regular" flu shot definitely available. Got mine last week.

 

[Chuckanut]

When people say this, I wonder what they think should have been done & where we'd be now if we had done whatever they think. But I never hear that, just complaints of what did happen.

I don't want to get far off topic but here are two examples:

Suppose you are a carpenter. In my state, if you were working on adding a room to Ms. Smith's house, you suddenly found yourself out of a job for a few months during the shutdown. OTOH, if you were working on remodeling a state office building, you could continue to work. Somehow, corona virus would avoid the people working on government buildings, but target people working on private structures. Who knew?

Another bungle, One Third of a Billion Dollars in the state's unemployment fund was paid to scammers in other countries. It's gone for good. Alas, the high unemployment rate is still with us.

Closer to the topic, we are seeing more furloughs become permanent layoffs. Unemployment is still over 10%. And that is before these new layoffs take place. Not so good.

I do think the economy will spring back once a vaccine and/or easy home treatment for CV is found. But, the damage is done, and it will take a few years just to fix that.

 

[cbo111]

I suspect many large companies have determined they simply do not need all these employees and can operate efficiently with fewer. The pending Boeing layoffs are telling. I know firsthand from working decades in the defense industry, there exists a chunk of employees that do very little productive work aside from attending meetings. And these are highly compensated employees. Companies like Boeing may well come out the other side of covid as more productive and efficient.

 

[MichaelB]

“What should have been done” is an endless, no-win debate where rhetoric prevails and it’s impossible to prove the likelihood of a different outcome.

 

[LRDave]

I saw today that Pinterest canceled a 490,000 sf lease deal in the SF Bay Area, citing the work-from-home movement. Cost 'em $89M to back out of the lease. I see this as a harbinger of many similar announcements in the coming years.

 

[audreyh1]

I don’t see how commercial/business real estate is going to come out of this looking rosy.

 

[Beststash]

I suspect many large companies have determined they simply do not need all these employees and can operate efficiently with fewer. ...... I know firsthand from working decades in the defense industry, there exists a chunk of employees that do very little productive work aside from attending meetings. And these are highly compensated employees.

I saw the same thing where I worked but also saw that middle managers knew their jobs were directly affected by headcount and therefore perpetuated the present structure until there was change at the executive levels that forced the issue.

I personally think that middle managers are mostly expendable---I know I was (I had an admin asst that could do/did most of my work (paper) and it was painfully obvious for quite a while before I left.

It will be interesting to see the effects of this latest crisis.

 

[Chuckanut]

REI built a beautiful new headquarters building in a park like setting. They will not move in. It's up for sale.

Less than 10 miles away, Google just bought part of a new development that is expected to hold 300 new Googlites in a few years.

Go figure.

 

[Time2]

FYI .. I copied the thread title as printed in the Aug/Sept print issue of AARP magazine, page 28.

Well, not quite, you left some out.
Here's what it said.

"IF YOU ARE WORRIED THAT,
The US ecomony will never recover...

...know that the 1918 influenza epidemic "left no discernable mark on the aggregate US economy"
The articles title is,
How about a little
GOOD NEWS?

 

[foxfirev5]

I don’t see how commercial/business real estate is going to come out of this looking rosy.

Yes. Big time. And I also wonder what else I'm missing. The big picture isn't too rosy.

 

[Stonewalker]

I'm always skeptical when I see words like "never" or "always" being used. Exceptions occur in many situations.

This being an exception, of course.

I love all y'all. I read a lot of the posts and everyone is fabulous, if sometimes cranky. Just like me.

 

[NoiseBoy]

Not much worrying here either. My concern is that it takes too long for things to be re-normalized, and I will be too old to travel. This bums me out.

Ditto. Every year I get a little more creaky so I was planning on a lot of international travel early in retirement. That looks so unlikely now that, when I go out to walk, I try to think of different ideas for what ER might look like for me.