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The US economy will never recover (AARP article)
08-24-2020, 04:16 PM
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#1
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 881
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The US economy will never recover (AARP article)
Quoting from the Sept 2020 issue article: "...the 1918 influenza epidemic 'left almost no discernable mark on the US economy'...'mostly modest and temporary', report coauthors Frydman and Benmelech, professors at Northwestern University's School of Management.... While conditions are different today, the coauthors point out that a global pandemic doesn't inevitably lead to a grave economic recession or depression."
Believe it?
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08-24-2020, 04:22 PM
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#2
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Administrator
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Chicagoland
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Is there an online version of this article to read it?
Edit - here’s the article https://www.aarp.org/money/investing...y-worries.html
The thread title is misleading. The article is an optimistic view of recovery. The title of the piece is “ Could You Be Worrying Too Much About Financial Security Due to the Pandemic?”, the short answer by the author is “no”, and a longer answer looks at different aspects of economic and financial impact and recovery. A bit light but not a bad article.
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08-24-2020, 04:26 PM
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#3
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: City
Posts: 10,337
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Quote:
Originally Posted by racy
... Believe it?
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"The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.” Often attributed to John Kenneth Galbraith but apparently actually from Ezra Solomon, a member of the Council of Economic Advisors during the Nixon administration.
Show me a ten-year track record of the authors' economic forecasts and the actual results. Then I'll believe.
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08-24-2020, 04:29 PM
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#4
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 13,202
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Your headline implies the economy won't recover, but your first post implies it will. Please don't get cute with thread titles. You're not being paid for page clicks, are you? If you are, let me know so I can add you to my ignore list.
And yes, giving a link to the source would be helpful, if it exists.
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08-24-2020, 04:31 PM
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#5
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Administrator
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Chicagoland
Posts: 40,586
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OldShooter
"The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.” Often attributed to John Kenneth Galbraith but apparently actually from Ezra Solomon, a member of the Council of Economic Advisors during the Nixon administration.
Show me a ten-year track record of the authors' economic forecasts and the actual results. Then I'll believe.
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The article is not about economic forecasting and there are no forecasts. You must have looked at a different article.
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08-24-2020, 04:39 PM
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#6
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: St. Charles
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Never slow down, never grow old!
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08-24-2020, 04:52 PM
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#7
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: Texas
Posts: 10,864
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Quote:
Originally Posted by racy
Quoting from the Sept 2020 issue article: "...the 1918 influenza epidemic 'left almost no discernable mark on the US economy'...'mostly modest and temporary', report coauthors Frydman and Benmelech, professors at Northwestern University's School of Management.... While conditions are different today, the coauthors point out that a global pandemic doesn't inevitably lead to a grave economic recession or depression."
Believe it?
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I personally believe in ten years the CV outbreak of toady will be little more than a blip on the financial radar screens... Lot's of other things could (and a few probably will) be far more devastating for longer periods of time.
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20's "something" mind, trapped in a 70's "something" body
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08-24-2020, 04:59 PM
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#8
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MichaelB
The article is not about economic forecasting and there are no forecasts. ...
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I dunno. Looks to me like inductive arguments that various things are likely to get better.
" Look to the past and you can see that societies and economies recover from traumas such as these. The following facts can put today’s hard financial times into historical perspective — and maybe even put you at ease."
That's forecasting.
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08-24-2020, 05:04 PM
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#9
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: Toronto
Posts: 3,320
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RunningBum
Your headline implies the economy won't recover, but your first post implies it will. Please don't get cute with thread titles. You're not being paid for page clicks, are you? If you are, let me know so I can add you to my ignore list.
And yes, giving a link to the source would be helpful, if it exists.
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+1
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08-24-2020, 05:27 PM
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#10
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
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When I read something attributed to AARP, that tells people they "shouldn't worry so much, things have been bad before," I immediately think, "Wait, your readers are Old people. Don't you think they know that by now? And if they don't, do you think they are likely to start learning at this late date?"
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08-24-2020, 06:50 PM
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#11
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2018
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Posts: 2,702
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'never' is a very, very long time. the current divisiveness in our body politic is of concern but i am bullish on America.
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Rich
Ham Radio, Sport Pilot, RVer
FIRE: 8/11/2005, age 55y,1d
Dispatcher, then shift supv, then administrator for a regional 9-1-1 call center
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08-24-2020, 07:11 PM
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#12
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
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I have not read the article yet, but I can say that the world has always recovered. This is not the first pandemic, and the world has also recovered from disastrous World Wars.
The question is how long it will take. Even if it takes only a couple of years, how well can individuals survive the economic hardship until they see the proverbial light at the end of the tunnel? This is highly dependent on each specific situation. Millions did not survive the World Wars, for example. I think most retirees, particularly posters here, will do fine.
From what I have read on the Web, some poor countries are hit quite badly. Here in the US, with the government giving out money freely, things do not look so dire, so far that is.
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"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
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08-24-2020, 07:14 PM
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#13
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The thread title reminds me of the thread that Amethyst recently started.
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Patience is the art of concealing your impatience.
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08-24-2020, 07:14 PM
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#14
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
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I'm not worried at all. "What me worry?" That's the wife's domain, not mine.
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08-24-2020, 07:21 PM
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#15
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
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Not much worrying here either. My concern is that it takes too long for things to be re-normalized, and I will be too old to travel. This bums me out.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
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08-25-2020, 01:48 AM
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#16
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
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I've mentioned before that my mother survived the 1918 pandemic. It colored her life even more than the Great Depression AND WWII. It's difficult to say how much that pandemic affected America (and the world.) I can tell you, it DID affect my mother for the remainder of her life. She never fully recovered physically or mentally. YMMV
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Ko'olau's Law -
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08-25-2020, 03:52 AM
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#17
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Aug 2018
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I'm always skeptical when I see words like "never" or "always" being used. Exceptions occur in many situations.
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08-25-2020, 04:07 AM
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#18
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
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A thread that tests our ability to comprehend...
The thread title and the actual content of the article are completely at odds. From the article introduction:
Quote:
But there’s reason for optimism. Look to the past and you can see that societies and economies recover from traumas such as these. The following facts can put today’s hard financial times into historical perspective — and maybe even put you at ease.
https://www.aarp.org/money/investing...y-worries.html
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But I did click on this thread, so it is obvious I'm drawn to the negative. The evidence against me is over-whelming.
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08-25-2020, 05:20 AM
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#19
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
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Quote:
Originally Posted by target2019
A thread that tests our ability to comprehend...
The thread title and the actual content of the article are completely at odds. From the article introduction:
But I did click on this thread, so it is obvious I'm drawn to the negative. The evidence against me is over-whelming.
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Unless it was simple skepticism and you clicked to see how anyone could make such a claim. And then you quickly determined that they hadn’t!
That was me.
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Retired since summer 1999.
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08-25-2020, 05:21 AM
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#20
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pb4uski
The thread title reminds me of the thread that Amethyst recently started.
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LOL. I even though about tossing out a pejorative but Amethyst has raised my consciousness (that's actually true).
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