The US economy will never recover (AARP article)

[racy]

Quoting from the Sept 2020 issue article: "...the 1918 influenza epidemic 'left almost no discernable mark on the US economy'...'mostly modest and temporary', report coauthors Frydman and Benmelech, professors at Northwestern University's School of Management.... While conditions are different today, the coauthors point out that a global pandemic doesn't inevitably lead to a grave economic recession or depression."
Believe it?

 

[MichaelB]

Is there an online version of this article to read it?

Edit - here’s the article https://www.aarp.org/money/investing/info-2020/facts-ease-financial-insecurity-worries.html

The thread title is misleading. The article is an optimistic view of recovery. The title of the piece is “ Could You Be Worrying Too Much About Financial Security Due to the Pandemic?”, the short answer by the author is “no”, and a longer answer looks at different aspects of economic and financial impact and recovery. A bit light but not a bad article.

 

[OldShooter]

... Believe it?

"The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.” Often attributed to John Kenneth Galbraith but apparently actually from Ezra Solomon, a member of the Council of Economic Advisors during the Nixon administration.

Show me a ten-year track record of the authors' economic forecasts and the actual results. Then I'll believe.

 

[RunningBum]

Your headline implies the economy won't recover, but your first post implies it will. Please don't get cute with thread titles. You're not being paid for page clicks, are you? If you are, let me know so I can add you to my ignore list.

And yes, giving a link to the source would be helpful, if it exists.

 

[MichaelB]

"The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.” Often attributed to John Kenneth Galbraith but apparently actually from Ezra Solomon, a member of the Council of Economic Advisors during the Nixon administration.

Show me a ten-year track record of the authors' economic forecasts and the actual results. Then I'll believe.

The article is not about economic forecasting and there are no forecasts. You must have looked at a different article.

 

[CardsFan]

"The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.” Often attributed to John Kenneth Galbraith but apparently actually from Ezra Solomon, a member of the Council of Economic Advisors during the Nixon administration.

I love that quote, and given the current events it is entirely accurate.

The article is not about economic forecasting and there are no forecasts. You must have looked at a different article.

You are right. the article is actually fairly positive, but, of course, being positive about the future IS kind of a forecast

 

[Car-Guy]

Quoting from the Sept 2020 issue article: "...the 1918 influenza epidemic 'left almost no discernable mark on the US economy'...'mostly modest and temporary', report coauthors Frydman and Benmelech, professors at Northwestern University's School of Management.... While conditions are different today, the coauthors point out that a global pandemic doesn't inevitably lead to a grave economic recession or depression."
Believe it?

I personally believe in ten years the CV outbreak of toady will be little more than a blip on the financial radar screens... Lot's of other things could (and a few probably will) be far more devastating for longer periods of time.

 

[OldShooter]

The article is not about economic forecasting and there are no forecasts. ...

I dunno. Looks to me like inductive arguments that various things are likely to get better.

" Look to the past and you can see that societies and economies recover from traumas such as these. The following facts can put today’s hard financial times into historical perspective — and maybe even put you at ease."

That's forecasting.

 

[6miths]

Your headline implies the economy won't recover, but your first post implies it will. Please don't get cute with thread titles. You're not being paid for page clicks, are you? If you are, let me know so I can add you to my ignore list.

And yes, giving a link to the source would be helpful, if it exists.

+1

 

[Amethyst]

When I read something attributed to AARP, that tells people they "shouldn't worry so much, things have been bad before," I immediately think, "Wait, your readers are Old people. Don't you think they know that by now? And if they don't, do you think they are likely to start learning at this late date?"

 

[rk911]

'never' is a very, very long time. the current divisiveness in our body politic is of concern but i am bullish on America.

 

[NW-Bound]

I have not read the article yet, but I can say that the world has always recovered. This is not the first pandemic, and the world has also recovered from disastrous World Wars.

The question is how long it will take. Even if it takes only a couple of years, how well can individuals survive the economic hardship until they see the proverbial light at the end of the tunnel? This is highly dependent on each specific situation. Millions did not survive the World Wars, for example. I think most retirees, particularly posters here, will do fine.

From what I have read on the Web, some poor countries are hit quite badly. Here in the US, with the government giving out money freely, things do not look so dire, so far that is.

 

[pb4uski]

The thread title reminds me of the thread that Amethyst recently started.

 

[RobbieB]

I'm not worried at all. "What me worry?" That's the wife's domain, not mine.

 

[NW-Bound]

Not much worrying here either. My concern is that it takes too long for things to be re-normalized, and I will be too old to travel. This bums me out.

 

[Koolau]

I've mentioned before that my mother survived the 1918 pandemic. It colored her life even more than the Great Depression AND WWII. It's difficult to say how much that pandemic affected America (and the world.) I can tell you, it DID affect my mother for the remainder of her life. She never fully recovered physically or mentally. YMMV

 

[Lewis Clark]

I'm always skeptical when I see words like "never" or "always" being used. Exceptions occur in many situations.

 

[target2019]

A thread that tests our ability to comprehend...

The thread title and the actual content of the article are completely at odds. From the article introduction:

But there’s reason for optimism. Look to the past and you can see that societies and economies recover from traumas such as these. The following facts can put today’s hard financial times into historical perspective — and maybe even put you at ease.
https://www.aarp.org/money/investing/info-2020/facts-ease-financial-insecurity-worries.html

But I did click on this thread, so it is obvious I'm drawn to the negative. The evidence against me is over-whelming.

 

[audreyh1]

A thread that tests our ability to comprehend...

The thread title and the actual content of the article are completely at odds. From the article introduction:

But I did click on this thread, so it is obvious I'm drawn to the negative. The evidence against me is over-whelming.

Unless it was simple skepticism and you clicked to see how anyone could make such a claim. And then you quickly determined that they hadn’t!

That was me.

 

[donheff]

The thread title reminds me of the thread that Amethyst recently started.

LOL. I even though about tossing out a pejorative but Amethyst has raised my consciousness (that's actually true).

 

[racy]

Is there an online version of this article to read it?

Edit - here’s the article https://www.aarp.org/money/investing/info-2020/facts-ease-financial-insecurity-worries.html

The thread title is misleading. The article is an optimistic view of recovery. The title of the piece is “ Could You Be Worrying Too Much About Financial Security Due to the Pandemic?”, the short answer by the author is “no”, and a longer answer looks at different aspects of economic and financial impact and recovery. A bit light but not a bad article.

FYI ... My thread title is the same as what's printed in the Aug/Sept 2020 issue of AARP magazine, page 28. I agree it's positive on the US economy.

 

[racy]

Your headline implies the economy won't recover, but your first post implies it will. Please don't get cute with thread titles. You're not being paid for page clicks, are you? If you are, let me know so I can add you to my ignore list.

And yes, giving a link to the source would be helpful, if it exists.

FYI .. I copied the thread title as printed in the Aug/Sept print issue of AARP magazine, page 28. I wish I was getting paid for page clicks!

 

[Amethyst]

Since Mr. A. is much older than I am, and his health starting to decline, this is a significant concern for us as well. Several highly-anticipated trips were canceled this year. He is bravely ready to "take chances while I still can," but we can't control the disease which is controlling the travel or theater industries.

+1

Not much worrying here either. My concern is that it takes too long for things to be re-normalized, and I will be too old to travel. This bums me out.

 

[NW-Bound]

I've mentioned before that my mother survived the 1918 pandemic. It colored her life even more than the Great Depression AND WWII. It's difficult to say how much that pandemic affected America (and the world.) I can tell you, it DID affect my mother for the remainder of her life. She never fully recovered physically or mentally. YMMV

I guess the above is not surprising if I remember that American citizens were spared the devastation of the two World Wars. I looked further and found that the 1918 pandemic killed as many as 500,000 to 850,000 Americans. For Americans, it hit closer to home than the two World Wars.

There was hardship during the Great Depression, but I don't think there were many people dying of famine in the US despite the long soup lines. It was estimated that about 20 million civilians world-wide died of starvation during WW II, and about as many soldiers died in combat.

And the 1918 pandemic killed as many as 50 million world-wide.

I think Americans have been spared a lot of hardship suffered by people elsewhere. This pandemic most likely will turn out to be a similar story.

 

[Chuckanut]

The economy will recover. How many bodies will be left to be buried is another question. So far, given the way our elected leaders at all levels have bungled handling lock-down and now the re-opening, I have to think there will be many bodies to dispose of when this is over.