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The US economy will never recover (AARP article)
Old 08-24-2020, 04:16 PM   #1
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The US economy will never recover (AARP article)

Quoting from the Sept 2020 issue article: "...the 1918 influenza epidemic 'left almost no discernable mark on the US economy'...'mostly modest and temporary', report coauthors Frydman and Benmelech, professors at Northwestern University's School of Management.... While conditions are different today, the coauthors point out that a global pandemic doesn't inevitably lead to a grave economic recession or depression."
Believe it?
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Old 08-24-2020, 04:22 PM   #2
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Is there an online version of this article to read it?

Edit - here’s the article https://www.aarp.org/money/investing...y-worries.html

The thread title is misleading. The article is an optimistic view of recovery. The title of the piece is “ Could You Be Worrying Too Much About Financial Security Due to the Pandemic?”, the short answer by the author is “no”, and a longer answer looks at different aspects of economic and financial impact and recovery. A bit light but not a bad article.
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Old 08-24-2020, 04:26 PM   #3
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Originally Posted by racy View Post
... Believe it?
"The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.” Often attributed to John Kenneth Galbraith but apparently actually from Ezra Solomon, a member of the Council of Economic Advisors during the Nixon administration.

Show me a ten-year track record of the authors' economic forecasts and the actual results. Then I'll believe.
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Old 08-24-2020, 04:29 PM   #4
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Your headline implies the economy won't recover, but your first post implies it will. Please don't get cute with thread titles. You're not being paid for page clicks, are you? If you are, let me know so I can add you to my ignore list.

And yes, giving a link to the source would be helpful, if it exists.
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Old 08-24-2020, 04:31 PM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OldShooter View Post
"The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.” Often attributed to John Kenneth Galbraith but apparently actually from Ezra Solomon, a member of the Council of Economic Advisors during the Nixon administration.

Show me a ten-year track record of the authors' economic forecasts and the actual results. Then I'll believe.
The article is not about economic forecasting and there are no forecasts. You must have looked at a different article.
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Old 08-24-2020, 04:39 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OldShooter View Post
"The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.” Often attributed to John Kenneth Galbraith but apparently actually from Ezra Solomon, a member of the Council of Economic Advisors during the Nixon administration.
I love that quote, and given the current events it is entirely accurate.

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The article is not about economic forecasting and there are no forecasts. You must have looked at a different article.
You are right. the article is actually fairly positive, but, of course, being positive about the future IS kind of a forecast
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Old 08-24-2020, 04:52 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by racy View Post
Quoting from the Sept 2020 issue article: "...the 1918 influenza epidemic 'left almost no discernable mark on the US economy'...'mostly modest and temporary', report coauthors Frydman and Benmelech, professors at Northwestern University's School of Management.... While conditions are different today, the coauthors point out that a global pandemic doesn't inevitably lead to a grave economic recession or depression."
Believe it?
I personally believe in ten years the CV outbreak of toady will be little more than a blip on the financial radar screens... Lot's of other things could (and a few probably will) be far more devastating for longer periods of time.
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Old 08-24-2020, 04:59 PM   #8
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The article is not about economic forecasting and there are no forecasts. ...
I dunno. Looks to me like inductive arguments that various things are likely to get better.

" Look to the past and you can see that societies and economies recover from traumas such as these. The following facts can put today’s hard financial times into historical perspective — and maybe even put you at ease."

That's forecasting.
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Old 08-24-2020, 05:04 PM   #9
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Originally Posted by RunningBum View Post
Your headline implies the economy won't recover, but your first post implies it will. Please don't get cute with thread titles. You're not being paid for page clicks, are you? If you are, let me know so I can add you to my ignore list.

And yes, giving a link to the source would be helpful, if it exists.
+1
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Old 08-24-2020, 05:27 PM   #10
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When I read something attributed to AARP, that tells people they "shouldn't worry so much, things have been bad before," I immediately think, "Wait, your readers are Old people. Don't you think they know that by now? And if they don't, do you think they are likely to start learning at this late date?"
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Old 08-24-2020, 06:50 PM   #11
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'never' is a very, very long time. the current divisiveness in our body politic is of concern but i am bullish on America.
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Old 08-24-2020, 07:11 PM   #12
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I have not read the article yet, but I can say that the world has always recovered. This is not the first pandemic, and the world has also recovered from disastrous World Wars.

The question is how long it will take. Even if it takes only a couple of years, how well can individuals survive the economic hardship until they see the proverbial light at the end of the tunnel? This is highly dependent on each specific situation. Millions did not survive the World Wars, for example. I think most retirees, particularly posters here, will do fine.

From what I have read on the Web, some poor countries are hit quite badly. Here in the US, with the government giving out money freely, things do not look so dire, so far that is.
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Old 08-24-2020, 07:14 PM   #13
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The thread title reminds me of the thread that Amethyst recently started.
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Old 08-24-2020, 07:14 PM   #14
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I'm not worried at all. "What me worry?" That's the wife's domain, not mine.
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Old 08-24-2020, 07:21 PM   #15
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Not much worrying here either. My concern is that it takes too long for things to be re-normalized, and I will be too old to travel. This bums me out.
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Old 08-25-2020, 01:48 AM   #16
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I've mentioned before that my mother survived the 1918 pandemic. It colored her life even more than the Great Depression AND WWII. It's difficult to say how much that pandemic affected America (and the world.) I can tell you, it DID affect my mother for the remainder of her life. She never fully recovered physically or mentally. YMMV
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Old 08-25-2020, 03:52 AM   #17
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I'm always skeptical when I see words like "never" or "always" being used. Exceptions occur in many situations.
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Old 08-25-2020, 04:07 AM   #18
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A thread that tests our ability to comprehend...

The thread title and the actual content of the article are completely at odds. From the article introduction:
Quote:
But there’s reason for optimism. Look to the past and you can see that societies and economies recover from traumas such as these. The following facts can put today’s hard financial times into historical perspective — and maybe even put you at ease.
https://www.aarp.org/money/investing...y-worries.html
But I did click on this thread, so it is obvious I'm drawn to the negative. The evidence against me is over-whelming.
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Old 08-25-2020, 05:20 AM   #19
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A thread that tests our ability to comprehend...

The thread title and the actual content of the article are completely at odds. From the article introduction:

But I did click on this thread, so it is obvious I'm drawn to the negative. The evidence against me is over-whelming.
Unless it was simple skepticism and you clicked to see how anyone could make such a claim. And then you quickly determined that they hadn’t!

That was me.
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Old 08-25-2020, 05:21 AM   #20
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Originally Posted by pb4uski View Post
The thread title reminds me of the thread that Amethyst recently started.
LOL. I even though about tossing out a pejorative but Amethyst has raised my consciousness (that's actually true).
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