This keeps getting deleted at the other board

[iwanttoretire]

I have been asking ***** questions at the "alternative" swr board and they keep getting deleted. Thir first time I though maybe it was a board glitch. Now I am getting the feeling that it is the moderator. Anyway I saved this last one:

******

somehow my last post was deleted. Anyway, I read the general guidance thread at nofeeboards swr research board. I liked this:

Our approach exposes and quantifies the uncertainty of our conclusions. This makes our conclusions much stronger and much more reliable than the alternatives. Unfortunately, it can give the impression of being weaker. The alternatives seem strong only because their weaknesses are hidden.

what are the confidence intervals for the 2.4% swr you mentioned? what are the swrs for other stock allocations.? what is the optimal current stock allocation? why can't I find a simple explantion for where the 2.4% came from?

This is sort of strange putting up a post, seeing my total posts increase (TO 3) and then finding that I am back to 2 posts. Is this a technical problem with the board?


******

anyone know a legitimate reason for the moderator of that board to avoid answering questions? It is pretty easy to keep track of your total posts when the total is fluctuating between 2 and 3   : :

 

[preben]

Our approach exposes and quantifies the uncertainty of our conclusions. This makes our conclusions much stronger and much more reliable than the alternatives. Unfortunately, it can give the impression of being weaker. The alternatives seem strong only because their weaknesses are hidden.

Huh!? Head spinning, must have ibuprofan and a beer now!

 

[iwanttoretire]

that was in the general guidance thread (a sticky) at that swr research board over at nofeeboards- sounds good - perhaps it was delusional?
Anyway, I sseem to have passed the 2 post threshold w/o any more deletions since switching to this non-alternative board.

 

[intercst]

I have been asking ***** questions at the "alternative" swr board and they keep getting deleted.

That's a fairly common occurance on *****-controlled boards elsewhere. Anyone who asks a question that points out the weaknesses of the so-called "Data-Based Tool" is considered a "disruptor" or a "Defender of the Conventional Method."

It's a big reason that few people with more than a third-grade understanding of arithmetic pay any attention to ***** today.

intercst

 

[unclemick]

Perhaps not - but I pay a whole lot of attetnion to JWR's data runs at NFB.

And even more to my old buddy Bogle:

Vanguard (60/40) Balanced Index - current yield 2.53%

Talks cheap - I'll stick with the numbers.

BTY - Bogle is still holding to 4% in certain circumstances - while looking at the same long term data.

 

[iwanttoretire]

hi unclemick2, do you know where this 2.4% swr came from?

this means for a 40,000 income I'll need $1,666,666 rather than $1,000,000, right

is this argumentative? someone is telling me to drastically increase my savings to have safe withdrawals and I want to know what it is based on- you may not know but isn't it logical that a person setting up an alternative to intercst could answer?

 

[intercst]

hi unclemick2, do you know where this 2.4% swr came from?

this means for a 40,000 income I'll need  $1,666,666 rather than $1,000,000, right

is this argumentative? someone is telling me to drastically increase my savings to have safe withdrawals and I want to know what it is based on- you may not know but isn't it logical that a person setting up an alternative to intercst could answer?

Most of the SWR numbers bandied about on the ***** alternative-SWR board are based on 1)  *****'s poor understanding of arithmetic, or 2) *****'s apparent belief that he can see the future and is certain it's worse than the past.

The most important thing you need to know about the ***** SWR is that while he tells you it's 2.4%, he's drawing 9.5% annually from a 100% fixed income portfolio -- a withdrawal rate that few people who understand math would tolerate.

You might also visit the "Best of Hoco-mania" board on the REHP forum where a dedicated team of scholars and researchers are deconstructing *****'s robust collection of 20-paragraph ravings on SWR, 'death threats', and message board administration.

http://www.retireearlyhomepage.com/cgi-bin/yabb/YaBB.pl

intercst

 

[iwanttoretire]

in my first version of the post I did mention that this jrw1954 character was defending his non-use of this alternative swr because he has a pension. I deleted that from the second try. I still think it is interesting and it was in one of the sticky threads that ***** told me to read!

 

[unclemick]

Yep - if you owned exactly the portfolio used in the data run and withdrew amounts exactly as specified by the calculation - 2.4% would be your SWR as calculated.

No I don't know which data run that was. Clearly if you owned what was used in the run or planned to withdraw in exactly the same manner - IT MIGHT BE A GOOD IDEA TO CHANGE WHAT YOU OWN AND HOW YOU PLANNED TO TAKE IT OUT.

It's a sanity check - you can take it or leave it.

The run is for distribution - not the accumulation phase.

4% in accumulation and even 4% in distribution can effective - provided you understand what you are doing.

 

[iwanttoretire]

so ***** won't answer questions on his board because dory asked him not to? to tone down confrontation? and he won't provide specifics on the boards he doesn't moderate because y'all are mean to him. I am getting a feeling that he has no answers :

 

[Cb]

iwanttoretire, I think it'd be best if we left the ***** horseshit on the ***** board.

Cb

 

[kayelem]

I hope someone is still around to watch the battle to its conclusion.

I haven't been around that long, but with all the "nom de plume"s (spelling? sorry tired) going on, it's really getting tiring to read the same posts and questions and complaints over and over again. Fight fire with fire seems to work about as well as ignoring the so-called troll.

It seems clear that that "iwanttoretire" has been around as long as ***** and the various guest aliases on that side of the fence.

I enjoy the board and can easily skip over the parts that are distracting, but lately it seems to be the majority of posts?

 

[iwanttoretire]

looks like the experiment with the *** board has ended (I like the text substitution btw) oh well, looks like there weren't any actual facts supporting the alternative swr

dory has a nice post referring further discussion to nfb swr board