Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Old 09-03-2020, 04:43 AM   #41
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Tampa
Posts: 7,984
Quote:
Originally Posted by DenverGuy42 View Post
we are up for the year as well - even after our spend down each month from our savings. After March - when we were way down, like a lot down - it doesn't seem possible.

but - big but - we are not even a little certain about the future.

We are coming into fall, back to school for some, lots more indoor activity, and people are getting tired/more lax with this whole social distancing thing (we are not, have no plans or problems with the status quo for as long as necessary.). What's going to happen with cases/hospitalizations/deaths... And how will the market react.

We have the elections coming up - time for more turmoil. What if one person appears to win on election night - but over the following days/weeks the other person pulls ahead with the mail in ballot counting. What does that do to the current extremely polarized environment we have. What if the "wrong" person wins (no comment on who that is - depends on who you talk to), how will the market react.

What if there is an October surprise - the CDC seems to think there will be https://www.snopes.com/ap/2020/09/02...ines-on-nov-1/. If we get a vaccine and it is effective and it is safe - that is great, I'm 100% on board. But what if the markets react to the news of a vaccine (and inflates on that) but then we don't get it. Or, what if it is not effective enough. Or, what if it turns out to have side effects they didn't find because they basically blew off a large portion of phase 3 testing.

so many what ifs, too numerous to list...

so my wife and I decided this week to get enough cash on hand for living expenses through the end of 2021. It'll be sitting in the bank earning that massive 0.05% interest - but at least we'll be able to sleep at night for a while. Regardless of what happens in the market.
Why not have the cash sitting at an online bank earning 0.80%?
No great shakes, but after initial setup, no work involved.
__________________
TGIM
Dtail is online now   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 09-03-2020, 07:07 AM   #42
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jun 2016
Posts: 4,033
Quote:
Originally Posted by rk911 View Post
i agree...just don't know..or when...to protect our nest egg.
Put aside some money for now, the next few years, some for much later, that you won’t touch no matter what and the middle gets filled with some of each. Then enjoy life.
COcheesehead is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-03-2020, 07:25 AM   #43
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jun 2014
Posts: 420
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lsbcal View Post
I heard today that about 80% of the US market is institutional. So they are probably driving this and not the Robinhood traders.
While shares are owned by institutions, the derivative market plays a huge role in determining prices and they are definitely thin by comparison.
Toocold is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-03-2020, 07:42 AM   #44
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
GravitySucks's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Syracuse
Posts: 2,958
Yup, it's crazy.
The only other option is taking your ball and go home, but that was never fun as a kid and wouldn't be now.
__________________
“No, not rich. I am a poor man with money, which is not the same thing"
GravitySucks is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 09-03-2020, 07:45 AM   #45
Confused about dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jul 2015
Location: Houston
Posts: 7
The spousal unit wanted to be more updated/involved on where we were financially, so I set her up to track our holdings via Yahoo Finance. Now we have a nightly discussion about what happened to our nest egg - initiated by her. There were some tough discussions earlier in the year, but it's wonderful seeing how involved she's become.
nobodyspecial is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-03-2020, 07:50 AM   #46
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jul 2020
Location: Sector 001 - Alpha Quadrant
Posts: 114
Quote:
Originally Posted by ducky911 View Post
Markets do be crazy.

I got invited 4 years ago, pre election, to a Schwab seminar that was going to prepare for moves before election. I'm a gullible sort so I didn't go. But have always wondered what was said. I stayed fully invested.

Truly believe there are No "experts"
Allow me to do away with 4 years of curiosity. That seminar was hosted by Michael Townsend who wanted to give Schwab's view of the election. Of all the things he said that night, this one sentence sticks with me: "Donald Trump has no conceivable path to the presidency"
Ncc1701 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-03-2020, 07:54 AM   #47
Moderator
sengsational's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Posts: 8,127
The market is at a perfectly logical level.


See, the roaring 20's happened after the last big pandemic, so the wisdom of the crowd is that the same will happen again. Get in now, before it's too late!
sengsational is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-03-2020, 08:02 AM   #48
Recycles dryer sheets
Vincenzo Corleone's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 390
Quote:
Originally Posted by nobodyspecial View Post
The spousal unit wanted to be more updated/involved on where we were financially, so I set her up to track our holdings via Yahoo Finance. Now we have a nightly discussion about what happened to our nest egg - initiated by her. There were some tough discussions earlier in the year, but it's wonderful seeing how involved she's become.
I wish my wife wanted to do the same. Unfortunately, she leaves it mostly to me. I do enjoy it to an extent, but would really like to be able to discuss things with her at length. She doesn't seem to have that much of an interest.

But back to the main discussion: yeah, in my opinion the market doesn't seem tied to reality and appears to me at times to be a bit like a Ponzi scheme. That's one of the reasons why I took a bunch of money off the table back in February. My wife and I are still at an all-time high.
Vincenzo Corleone is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-03-2020, 08:53 AM   #49
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Golden sunsets's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2013
Posts: 2,074
11:00 AM 9/3. The Lord giveth and the Lord taketh away. Down 2%.


PS I don't believe God has anything to do with the markets. But the quote seemed appropriate today.
__________________
"Luck favors the prepared mind"
Pasteur
Golden sunsets is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-03-2020, 10:20 AM   #50
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: St. Louis
Posts: 1,344
Quote:
Originally Posted by Vincenzo Corleone View Post
I wish my wife wanted to do the same. Unfortunately, she leaves it mostly to me. I do enjoy it to an extent, but would really like to be able to discuss things with her at length. She doesn't seem to have that much of an interest.

But back to the main discussion: yeah, in my opinion the market doesn't seem tied to reality and appears to me at times to be a bit like a Ponzi scheme. That's one of the reasons why I took a bunch of money off the table back in February. My wife and I are still at an all-time high.
Set up something easy for her. Have 3 years of cash. The rest of the money in LifeStrategy Conservative Growth or LifeStrategy Moderate Growth. If the market is down pull from the cash up pull from the fund.
FANOFJESUS is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-03-2020, 10:23 AM   #51
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Nov 2017
Posts: 126
The market is up? Been too busy with retirement to even notice. Good I need to pay for a new roof and AC. LOL.
nobody is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-03-2020, 10:42 AM   #52
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 1,135
Quote:
Originally Posted by nobody View Post
The market is up? Been too busy with retirement to even notice. Good I need to pay for a new roof and AC. LOL.
good luck finding a roofer that isn't booked as far as the eye can see. Around here, contractors are jammed solid. A pool constructor I know has 50 requests for new pools - and I'm in a semi-rural area.
jebmke is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-03-2020, 11:01 AM   #53
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
rk911's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2018
Location: DuPage County IL
Posts: 1,403
Quote:
Originally Posted by COcheesehead View Post
Put aside some money for now, the next few years, some for much later, that you won’t touch no matter what and the middle gets filled with some of each. Then enjoy life.
we're not touching them now. we don't need or use any part of our investments for day-day living which are heavily weighted on the equity side. between cash in the bank, SS and pensions we're set for the forseeable future. even if my wife's state pension (Illinois) dries up we'll be fine, day-day. been thinking of moving the retirement accounts to cash.
__________________
Rich
Ham Radio, Sport Pilot, RVer
FIRE: 8/11/2005, age 55y,1d
Administrator for a regional 9-1-1 call center
rk911 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-03-2020, 11:03 AM   #54
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: North
Posts: 2,891
Quote:
Originally Posted by frayne View Post
See my sig line.
Love it
__________________
AA (Stock/Bond/Cash ): 97.5/0/2.5% MIX (Small/Mid/Large): 25/25/50% BLEND(US/Foreign): 100/0%, REIT (Real Estate Equity): ~50% of Assets

FIRE in 2031 @ 50yrs old (+/- 2yrs) w/ a hypothetical $2.5mil portfolio, 3 appreciated homes worth $1.0mil and rental income to fund my gap years until RMD. Assets will go to an inherited IRA where I plan on watching the investments grow until I die or the trust gets executed.
kgtest is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-03-2020, 11:05 AM   #55
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: North
Posts: 2,891
Quote:
Originally Posted by Golden sunsets View Post
11:00 AM 9/3. The Lord giveth and the Lord taketh away. Down 2%.


PS I don't believe God has anything to do with the markets. But the quote seemed appropriate today.
Lol, I use this phrase only, "The market taketh what the market giveth"
__________________
AA (Stock/Bond/Cash ): 97.5/0/2.5% MIX (Small/Mid/Large): 25/25/50% BLEND(US/Foreign): 100/0%, REIT (Real Estate Equity): ~50% of Assets

FIRE in 2031 @ 50yrs old (+/- 2yrs) w/ a hypothetical $2.5mil portfolio, 3 appreciated homes worth $1.0mil and rental income to fund my gap years until RMD. Assets will go to an inherited IRA where I plan on watching the investments grow until I die or the trust gets executed.
kgtest is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-03-2020, 11:13 AM   #56
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
calmloki's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Independence
Posts: 6,638
Quote:
Originally Posted by audreyh1 View Post
Congrats!
Dang. Thanks. It was a great evening being up in that rarefied realm.
__________________
"Be kind whenever possible. It is always possible." Dalai Lama
calmloki is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-03-2020, 12:16 PM   #57
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
kcowan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pacific latitude 20/49
Posts: 7,363
Send a message via Skype™ to kcowan
Quote:
Originally Posted by dp226 View Post
I keep thinking that every month a large amount of money comes into the market via 401k/403b/etc that has to be put somewhere. With the low interest rates and the large amounts of folks investing being far from retirement there is no problem with the supply there is no problem with cash to invested.

I think that the FED keeping interest rates down keeps that money out of bonds/cds/etc . I think many people are younger with no pensions and have the attitude to swing for the bleachers and have time to survive any downturns. Also if they don't, they will never be able to retire. That is the attitude of most of my employees. Put the money to work in the 401k wherever the biggest stock profit is.

With the large amounts of cash and the push to put it into growth/tech I am not surprised that the prices continue to go up. I can't see any big changes since it is in no ones interest to change this (until it is which I think is near the election at the earliest).

Of course, I am probably wrong
I hope you are right because I agree. In fact, I am betting on it! 3Q should show even worse company financial results, but very few of them are listed or they are being overwhelmed by the tech stars.
__________________
For the fun of it...Keith
kcowan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-03-2020, 12:24 PM   #58
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Brat's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Portland, Oregon
Posts: 6,887
Humm... rotation to value stocks?
__________________
Duck bjorn.
Brat is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-03-2020, 12:37 PM   #59
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Tampa
Posts: 7,984
S&P down 3%+. OMG
Time for the Fed to start buying individual stocks.........
__________________
TGIM
Dtail is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 09-03-2020, 12:47 PM   #60
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Midwest
Posts: 2,514
Anybody seen any news stories explaining this? I saw one way early saying something about a FED statement but I can't find it now. Otherwise there is a conspicuous lack of "emergency financial news articles" telling us what it's happening.
razztazz is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Bat***t crazy or crazy like a fox? An evil fox. Mdlerth Other topics 18 09-23-2019 03:17 PM
Why do people think we’re/I’m crazy? Lol Huntnful Young Dreamers 149 05-13-2018 07:49 PM
I am crazy to think I can retire at 48? Gunslinger Hi, I am... 41 11-24-2014 03:23 PM
Am I crazy, or is this 'Financial Advisor' crazy? Coderguy Young Dreamers 26 06-08-2011 07:02 PM

» Quick Links

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 01:38 PM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.