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Old 09-03-2020, 04:11 PM   #81
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Originally Posted by Toocold View Post
I'm just happy that we aren't having those up 1%, down 1.5%, up 1% days.

Oh, well...
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Old 09-04-2020, 07:40 AM   #82
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Originally Posted by jollystomper View Post
Oh, well...
I took a second before I posted, thinking that if I did, volatility would surely return. You all can blame me.
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Old 09-04-2020, 09:08 AM   #83
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Originally Posted by Toocold View Post
I took a second before I posted, thinking that if I did, volatility would surely return. You all can blame me.
Iím blaming all of you, everything was going well and then yíall had to start this thread...
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Old 09-04-2020, 02:30 PM   #84
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Originally Posted by teejayevans View Post
Iím blaming all of you, everything was going well and then yíall had to start this thread...
Oh sorry. My bad
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Old 09-04-2020, 05:42 PM   #85
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Originally Posted by calmloki View Post
.... We now have a tenant who is working, but not paying rent - and according to the CDC we can't evict till January. She's several months behind now, and does anyone really think she'll pay her back rent? Ever? And we are ordered by the CDC? Wacky. Good to be secure.
My understanding was that there were pretty specific criteria in order for an eviction to be stayed... does she meet it? Hawaii may have different procedures, but my point is that it is only CERTAIN evictions that are prohibited... others can continue.

See https://supremecourt.ohio.gov/corona...cEvictions.pdf

Quote:
To be eligible for protection, every adult tenant on
a lease must prepare a Declaration Form, or similar
document under penalty of perjury, to prevent an
eviction from occurring. This form can be provided
directly to the landlord or property owner during the
time the rent payment is due or at such time the tenant
receives notice that an eviction complaint was filed
with a court.

Through the Declaration Form, the tenant affirms
each of the following:
1. They have used best efforts to obtain government
assistance for rent or housing;
2. At least one of the following requirements applies
to them:
a. Expect to earn no more than $99,000 in annual
income for Calendar Year 2020 (or no more
than $198,000 if filing a joint tax return), or
b. Were not required to report any income in
2019 to the U.S. Internal Revenue Service, or
c. Received an Economic Impact Payment
(stimulus check) pursuant to Section 2201 of
the CARES Act;
3. They are unable to make full rent payment due
to substantial loss of household income, loss of
compensable hours of work or wages, a lay-off, or
extraordinary out-of-pocket medical expenses;
4. They are using best efforts to make payments as
close to full payments as possible; and
5. Eviction likely would render them homeless or
force them to move into and live in close quarters
in new congregate or shared living setting because
no other housing options are available.
Renters with questions about the CDC order or
Declaration Form may find additional information
at the Ohio Legal Help website or should contact an
attorney.
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Old 09-04-2020, 05:53 PM   #86
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Originally Posted by Toocold View Post
I'm just happy that we aren't having those up 1%, down 1.5%, up 1% days.
Eh, it's too early to say that it is not going to happen again soon.
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Old 09-04-2020, 05:56 PM   #87
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If days like today bother you.... don't own stock. If it went straight up, then I'd be concerned...

But it did go straight up until all hell broke loose on yesterday, Thursday 9/3/2020.
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Old 09-04-2020, 06:06 PM   #88
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Originally Posted by pb4uski View Post
My understanding was that there were pretty specific criteria in order for an eviction to be stayed... does she meet it? Hawaii may have different procedures, but my point is that it is only CERTAIN evictions that are prohibited... others can continue.

See https://supremecourt.ohio.gov/corona...cEvictions.pdf
We are in Oregon - pretty tenant friendly state these days:

https://oregonlawhelp.org/files/CCDA...tes-7-1-20.pdf
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Old 09-04-2020, 06:12 PM   #89
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I read the posts that the run-up, putting aside the decline in the last couple days, is a function of no other reasonable investment alternatives given near zero interest rates, Fed intervention, high demand and low supply, etc.

Earnings and future cash flows don't seem to count anymore.

If so, isn't it really just musical chairs until at some point the music stops?

That's what it seems to me so I have decided to step aside and let others play that game. I'm fortunate to be in a position where I don't have to play unless I want to.

If or when valuations get back to being based on earnings and cashflows then I'll be interested in playing.
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Old 09-04-2020, 06:13 PM   #90
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Originally Posted by calmloki View Post
We are in Oregon - pretty tenant friendly state these days:

https://oregonlawhelp.org/files/CCDA...tes-7-1-20.pdf
Sorry... I got you confused with another poster... should have looked at your profile before I posted.
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Old 09-04-2020, 06:19 PM   #91
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We are in Oregon - pretty tenant friendly state these days:

https://oregonlawhelp.org/files/CCDA...tes-7-1-20.pdf
I would frame "tenant friendly" as "stupid"... in that they have not in any way tied relief to some sort of adverse financial consequence as a result of covid.

For example, I know a number of lucky people who have not been adversely affected by covid at all... still working as they were before... if I read this right they could refuse to pay their rent all these months... that is truly stupid.
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Old 09-04-2020, 07:19 PM   #92
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Originally Posted by pb4uski View Post
I would frame "tenant friendly" as "stupid"... in that they have not in any way tied relief to some sort of adverse financial consequence as a result of covid.

For example, I know a number of lucky people who have not been adversely affected by covid at all... still working as they were before... if I read this right they could refuse to pay their rent all these months... that is truly stupid.
Yep, think you read it right - I could get cranky about it, but the vast majority of tenants are treating us right. And I'd rather be in my position than the tenant's, so am choosing not to get excited.
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Old 09-05-2020, 02:37 AM   #93
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Yep, think you read it right - I could get cranky about it, but the vast majority of tenants are treating us right. And I'd rather be in my position than the tenant's, so am choosing not to get excited.
I was doing a thought experiment one day about "the state" deciding who has to pay and who doesn't. So, the tenants don't have to pay. What about the land lord/owner? Does s/he not pay the mortgage? If not, does the mortgage holder not have to pay Fannie/Freddie or the ultimate credit holder? On it goes.

I'm not taking a position on this, but I really do wonder "where does it end?" YMMV
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Old 09-05-2020, 06:46 AM   #94
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Yeah... it was in the unintended consequences category... well intended but not well thought through.

If you are going to have a moratorium on evictions wouldn't it make sense to also have a moratorium on foreclosures? (I'm not advocating that by the way).
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Old 09-05-2020, 07:20 AM   #95
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It occurred to me that when the pandemic is "all over," landlords/owners may need to raise rent to cover their losses. Potential landlord/owners may be gun-shy about investing when they realize the state can simply say "sorry!" (Having owned a rental, I can say this): Landlord/owners ARE crazy, but not stupid. Fool me once, etc. etc. Does not bode well for "affordable" housing in our future, but YMMV.
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Old 09-05-2020, 07:38 AM   #96
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Politicians have to "do something", even if they don't have the ability to do anything that is fair to everyone, they still feel the need to "do something". It's the world in which we live. It's easy for me not to be cranky about a specific rule, since I'm not on the costly side of any of them. But back to the topic of the market in general, when productivity is reduced, as I presume it is due to people not able to fully engage in work and commerce, we all pay through lack of growth. Some pent-up demand will be captured, but I suspect a lot will be "lost forever". But that's not enough to get me cranky because the rest of the world is in the same boat, and besides, it's "a waste of cycles".
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This Market Is Crazy - What do Y'all Think???
Old 09-05-2020, 08:32 AM   #97
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This Market Is Crazy - What do Y'all Think???

Meanwhile, itís a bull year in US bonds, which are ahead of stocks YTD but I didnít see any comments about that fact. The Fed is openly promising to keep interest rates low for years. Also, low interest rates are helping home prices. I donít know nuthin but the bigger picture makes me happy we are at 50/50 AA and so I feel we are prepared as we can be for whatever comes down the train tunnel, whether a menacing headlight, daylight or both, depending on the asset class. Now if international would just show a pulse!
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Old 09-06-2020, 12:13 PM   #98
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I was 48%/52% ... Last friday, I rebalanced and bought more equities .. Iím now 55%/45% . Iím about at the same level today as I was in February, and my peak was 3 days ago. My goal towards the end of the year is to get back to 60%/40%
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Old 09-06-2020, 12:36 PM   #99
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I looked at what stocks did well Friday... low and behold BANKS!
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Old 09-06-2020, 03:11 PM   #100
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I looked at what stocks did well Friday... low and behold BANKS!
I noticed that too. Banking along with utility are the sectors that are left behind in the recent market rally. So, we are seeing a bit of "sector rotation" in play here.
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