This Market Is Crazy - What do Y'all Think???

[jollystomper]

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Originally Posted by Toocold I'm just happy that we aren't having those up 1%, down 1.5%, up 1% days.

Oh, well...

[Toocold]

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Originally Posted by jollystomper Oh, well...

I took a second before I posted, thinking that if I did, volatility would surely return. You all can blame me.

[teejayevans]

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Originally Posted by Toocold I took a second before I posted, thinking that if I did, volatility would surely return. You all can blame me.

I’m blaming all of you, everything was going well and then y’all had to start this thread...

[Golden sunsets]

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Originally Posted by teejayevans I’m blaming all of you, everything was going well and then y’all had to start this thread...

Oh sorry. My bad[emoji852]

[pb4uski]

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Originally Posted by calmloki .... We now have a tenant who is working, but not paying rent - and according to the CDC we can't evict till January. She's several months behind now, and does anyone really think she'll pay her back rent? Ever? And we are ordered by the CDC? Wacky. Good to be secure.

My understanding was that there were pretty specific criteria in order for an eviction to be stayed... does she meet it? Hawaii may have different procedures, but my point is that it is only CERTAIN evictions that are prohibited... others can continue.

See https://supremecourt.ohio.gov/corona...cEvictions.pdf

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To be eligible for protection, every adult tenant on a lease must prepare a Declaration Form, or similar document under penalty of perjury, to prevent an eviction from occurring. This form can be provided directly to the landlord or property owner during the time the rent payment is due or at such time the tenant receives notice that an eviction complaint was filed with a court. Through the Declaration Form, the tenant affirms each of the following: 1. They have used best efforts to obtain government assistance for rent or housing; 2. At least one of the following requirements applies to them: a. Expect to earn no more than $99,000 in annual income for Calendar Year 2020 (or no more than $198,000 if filing a joint tax return), or b. Were not required to report any income in 2019 to the U.S. Internal Revenue Service, or c. Received an Economic Impact Payment (stimulus check) pursuant to Section 2201 of the CARES Act; 3. They are unable to make full rent payment due to substantial loss of household income, loss of compensable hours of work or wages, a lay-off, or extraordinary out-of-pocket medical expenses; 4. They are using best efforts to make payments as close to full payments as possible; and 5. Eviction likely would render them homeless or force them to move into and live in close quarters in new congregate or shared living setting because no other housing options are available. Renters with questions about the CDC order or Declaration Form may find additional information at the Ohio Legal Help website or should contact an attorney.

[NW-Bound]

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Originally Posted by Toocold I'm just happy that we aren't having those up 1%, down 1.5%, up 1% days.

Eh, it's too early to say that it is not going to happen again soon.

[NW-Bound]

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Originally Posted by Stormy Kromer If days like today bother you.... don't own stock. If it went straight up, then I'd be concerned...

But it did go straight up until all hell broke loose on yesterday, Thursday 9/3/2020.

[calmloki]

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Originally Posted by pb4uski My understanding was that there were pretty specific criteria in order for an eviction to be stayed... does she meet it? Hawaii may have different procedures, but my point is that it is only CERTAIN evictions that are prohibited... others can continue. See https://supremecourt.ohio.gov/corona...cEvictions.pdf

We are in Oregon - pretty tenant friendly state these days:

https://oregonlawhelp.org/files/CCDA...tes-7-1-20.pdf

[pb4uski]

I read the posts that the run-up, putting aside the decline in the last couple days, is a function of no other reasonable investment alternatives given near zero interest rates, Fed intervention, high demand and low supply, etc.

Earnings and future cash flows don't seem to count anymore.

If so, isn't it really just musical chairs until at some point the music stops?

That's what it seems to me so I have decided to step aside and let others play that game. I'm fortunate to be in a position where I don't have to play unless I want to.

If or when valuations get back to being based on earnings and cashflows then I'll be interested in playing.

[pb4uski]

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Originally Posted by calmloki We are in Oregon - pretty tenant friendly state these days: https://oregonlawhelp.org/files/CCDA...tes-7-1-20.pdf

Sorry... I got you confused with another poster... should have looked at your profile before I posted.

[pb4uski]

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Originally Posted by calmloki We are in Oregon - pretty tenant friendly state these days: https://oregonlawhelp.org/files/CCDA...tes-7-1-20.pdf

I would frame "tenant friendly" as "stupid"... in that they have not in any way tied relief to some sort of adverse financial consequence as a result of covid.

For example, I know a number of lucky people who have not been adversely affected by covid at all... still working as they were before... if I read this right they could refuse to pay their rent all these months... that is truly stupid.

[calmloki]

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Originally Posted by pb4uski I would frame "tenant friendly" as "stupid"... in that they have not in any way tied relief to some sort of adverse financial consequence as a result of covid. For example, I know a number of lucky people who have not been adversely affected by covid at all... still working as they were before... if I read this right they could refuse to pay their rent all these months... that is truly stupid.

Yep, think you read it right - I could get cranky about it, but the vast majority of tenants are treating us right. And I'd rather be in my position than the tenant's, so am choosing not to get excited.

[Koolau]

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Originally Posted by calmloki Yep, think you read it right - I could get cranky about it, but the vast majority of tenants are treating us right. And I'd rather be in my position than the tenant's, so am choosing not to get excited.

I was doing a thought experiment one day about "the state" deciding who has to pay and who doesn't. So, the tenants don't have to pay. What about the land lord/owner? Does s/he not pay the mortgage? If not, does the mortgage holder not have to pay Fannie/Freddie or the ultimate credit holder? On it goes.

I'm not taking a position on this, but I really do wonder "where does it end?" YMMV

[pb4uski]

Yeah... it was in the unintended consequences category... well intended but not well thought through.

If you are going to have a moratorium on evictions wouldn't it make sense to also have a moratorium on foreclosures? (I'm not advocating that by the way).

[Koolau]

It occurred to me that when the pandemic is "all over," landlords/owners may need to raise rent to cover their losses. Potential landlord/owners may be gun-shy about investing when they realize the state can simply say "sorry!" (Having owned a rental, I can say this): Landlord/owners ARE crazy, but not stupid. Fool me once, etc. etc. Does not bode well for "affordable" housing in our future, but YMMV.

[sengsational]

Politicians have to "do something", even if they don't have the ability to do anything that is fair to everyone, they still feel the need to "do something". It's the world in which we live. It's easy for me not to be cranky about a specific rule, since I'm not on the costly side of any of them. But back to the topic of the market in general, when productivity is reduced, as I presume it is due to people not able to fully engage in work and commerce, we all pay through lack of growth. Some pent-up demand will be captured, but I suspect a lot will be "lost forever". But that's not enough to get me cranky because the rest of the world is in the same boat, and besides, it's "a waste of cycles".

[Markola]

Meanwhile, it’s a bull year in US bonds, which are ahead of stocks YTD but I didn’t see any comments about that fact. The Fed is openly promising to keep interest rates low for years. Also, low interest rates are helping home prices. I don’t know nuthin but the bigger picture makes me happy we are at 50/50 AA and so I feel we are prepared as we can be for whatever comes down the train tunnel, whether a menacing headlight, daylight or both, depending on the asset class. Now if international would just show a pulse!

[cyber888]

I was 48%/52% ... Last friday, I rebalanced and bought more equities .. I’m now 55%/45% . I’m about at the same level today as I was in February, and my peak was 3 days ago. My goal towards the end of the year is to get back to 60%/40%

[Brat]

I looked at what stocks did well Friday... low and behold BANKS!

[NW-Bound]

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Originally Posted by Brat I looked at what stocks did well Friday... low and behold BANKS!

I noticed that too. Banking along with utility are the sectors that are left behind in the recent market rally. So, we are seeing a bit of "sector rotation" in play here.