Originally Posted by vchan2177
The Japanese Stock market has not recovered since the Nikkei 225 crash of 1990. This is 30 years and counting. It will recover...but 30 plus years is a long time for investors...
Originally Posted by GravitySucks
But if you dollar cost averaged in from 1980 to 1990 you'd still be doing well. If you went from 0 to all in 1989 you'd be screwed.
The Nikkei had a wonderful rise in the 1980-1990 decade, followed by 20 miserable years. The recent decade of 2010-2020 is decent.
Following numbers are total returns with dividend reinvested. Returns are shown in yen, and inflation-adjusted.
1980-1990: 402.51% (17.52% per annum)
1990-2000: -49.06% (-6.52% per annum)
2000-2010: -39.91% (-4.97% per annum)
2010-2020: 169.63% (10.43% per annum)
Japanese shareholders had to suffer through 20 years before they got a break.
For the miserable 20-year period (1990-2010): -69.39% (-5.75% per annum)
For the past 30-year period (1990-2020): -17.46% ( -0.64% per annum)
For the past 40-year period (1980-2020): 314.77% (3.62% per annum)
I guess that if a Japanese kept accumulating though his 40 years of worklife, starting when he was 20 in 1980, at this point in 2020 when he is 60-year old and ready to retire, he is doing OK but not great.
It is however very tough to keep investing through the period of 1990-2010, when you see your $1 become 30c, even with dividend reinvestment.
PS. There were errors in my earlier posted numbers. They have been corrected.