This Market Is Crazy - What do Y'all Think???

[COcheesehead]

Secular bull.

I least some of us stayed in it to enjoy the ride for a little longer. I am up in whole numbers $700,000 since October of last year. I was also down $500,000 YTD at one point in March. Wild ride.

[explanade]

Quote:

Originally Posted by kcowan My belief is that as long as The Fed supplies cheap money, depressing the returns of fixed income, equities are the only way to keep ahead of inflation. My main fund is with a discount broker and is 65% equities. I don't spend it so am able to tolerate a downdraft. I do spend the dividends. The other two are retirement funds (much smaller), one is 85% the other 50% equities. They are always advising me to cut back and almost always been wrong.

Yeah my credit union savings account had lower monthly dividends for August vs. July, even though my balance was higher in August.

Interest rates are scrapping the bottom.

Meanwhile, savings rates are very high, maybe all-time high. There are stories about some lower-wage workers being able to put away their $600 a month unemployment benefit for the pandemic, having some savings for the first time in their lives.

Of course that will go away.

But there's a lot of money in search of returns.

Doesn't mean there won't be a pullback. Economic recovery probably aren't going to be as quick as people would hope for. Airlines are about to put thousands on furlough at the end of this month if they don't get another bailout.

[Toocold]

I'm just happy that we aren't having those up 1%, down 1.5%, up 1% days.

[Austin704]

I stayed fully invested during the market drop and now my accounts are at all-time highs. It’s a great feeling but one that is tempered by fear that market valuations are not supported by the underlying economy.

The “Buffett Indicator,” which is total market value divided by GDP stands at more than 200%, which is 67% higher than the historical average and indicates the market is strongly overvalued.

http://www.currentmarketvaluation.com

That said, I don’t have any plans to change my 70/30 asset allocation. I’m in stocks for the long haul and I guess I’ll just enjoy this ride until the next drop.

[Lewis Clark]

For whatever it's worth:

I listened to a Fidelity market update webinar today. Their analysts think we are now in the beginning stages of the next/current business cycle expansion.

They also pointed out that some industries hit hardest by COVID are a small part of the S&P 500 (such as airlines), while some industries heavily weighted in the index have benefited from COVID (such as software).

[Major Tom]

I only check my portfolio balance on days when the market is up. I didn't check it for something like 6 months recently. It's been nice checking it almost every day

[audreyh1]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Major Tom I only check my portfolio balance on days when the market is up. I didn't check it for something like 6 months recently. It's been nice checking it almost every day

Good one!

[Austin704]

Quote:

I only check my portfolio balance on days when the market is up. I didn't check it for something like 6 months recently. It's been nice checking it almost every day

I have a similar habit—ignore it when it’s down, obsess when it’s up. Of course, when we’re in the midst of a massive drop like the one in March, I do periodically view the carnage—I want to be reminded what market risk looks like so I don’t get irrationally exuberant during the next cycle.

[teetee]

We are just preparing for the free fall either right after the election or during the winter when the vaccine for covid fail to work and everyone has to suffer the shutdown again.

I think continuing putting money in zoom and recession proof stocks is smart. Not absolutely going to work but smart.

[dp226]

I keep thinking that every month a large amount of money comes into the market via 401k/403b/etc that has to be put somewhere. With the low interest rates and the large amounts of folks investing being far from retirement there is no problem with the supply there is no problem with cash to invested.

I think that the FED keeping interest rates down keeps that money out of bonds/cds/etc . I think many people are younger with no pensions and have the attitude to swing for the bleachers and have time to survive any downturns. Also if they don't, they will never be able to retire. That is the attitude of most of my employees. Put the money to work in the 401k wherever the biggest stock profit is.

With the large amounts of cash and the push to put it into growth/tech I am not surprised that the prices continue to go up. I can't see any big changes since it is in no ones interest to change this (until it is which I think is near the election at the earliest).

Of course, I am probably wrong

[Letj]

Quote:

Originally Posted by GalaxyBoy That was close. I almost expected her to say ... But seriously I agree. I’m 50% in equities and I keep thinking I should sell most of that and hold on tight to my gains but I swore on the Bogleheads to stay the course.

So just curious. Do you mean sell/rebalance in your tax deferred account? I have never rebalanced in my after tax account because of the significant tax hit. I am retired but haven’t had to touch investments yet.

[WestUniversity]

I have been rebalancing and adjusting my AA all the way up. I have no idea what is holding the market up..

[DenverGuy42]

we are up for the year as well - even after our spend down each month from our savings. After March - when we were way down, like a lot down - it doesn't seem possible.

but - big but - we are not even a little certain about the future.

We are coming into fall, back to school for some, lots more indoor activity, and people are getting tired/more lax with this whole social distancing thing (we are not, have no plans or problems with the status quo for as long as necessary.). What's going to happen with cases/hospitalizations/deaths... And how will the market react.

We have the elections coming up - time for more turmoil. What if one person appears to win on election night - but over the following days/weeks the other person pulls ahead with the mail in ballot counting. What does that do to the current extremely polarized environment we have. What if the "wrong" person wins (no comment on who that is - depends on who you talk to), how will the market react.

What if there is an October surprise - the CDC seems to think there will be https://www.snopes.com/ap/2020/09/02...ines-on-nov-1/. If we get a vaccine and it is effective and it is safe - that is great, I'm 100% on board. But what if the markets react to the news of a vaccine (and inflates on that) but then we don't get it. Or, what if it is not effective enough. Or, what if it turns out to have side effects they didn't find because they basically blew off a large portion of phase 3 testing.

so many what ifs, too numerous to list...

so my wife and I decided this week to get enough cash on hand for living expenses through the end of 2021. It'll be sitting in the bank earning that massive 0.05% interest - but at least we'll be able to sleep at night for a while. Regardless of what happens in the market.

[calmloki]

Wacky. Today kicked our ostensible NW over 6M. Was hoping that rent payments would get us there before quarterlies take their bite, but turns out those deposits today and about an equal amount according to Morningstar today got us well over the hump. Meanwhile our 9 unit apartment sale continues on track, which will add to the stash. If only I didn't feel like our dollars are falling in value faster than the market is rising. Crazy times. We now have a tenant who is working, but not paying rent - and according to the CDC we can't evict till January. She's several months behind now, and does anyone really think she'll pay her back rent? Ever? And we are ordered by the CDC? Wacky. Good to be secure.

[explanade]

For all we know, the market has priced in vaccines, at least partly.

Don't look just at vaccine stocks like Moderna or Pfizer but maybe the market is saying it expects rapid economic recovery, because of vaccines among other reasons.

[rk911]

Quote:

Originally Posted by travelover I think we are in the eye of the hurricane. But what do I know?

i agree...just don't know..or when...to protect our nest egg.

[audreyh1]

Quote:

Originally Posted by calmloki Wacky. Today kicked our ostensible NW over 6M. Was hoping that rent payments would get us there before quarterlies take their bite, but turns out those deposits today and about an equal amount according to Morningstar today got us well over the hump. Meanwhile our 9 unit apartment sale continues on track, which will add to the stash. If only I didn't feel like our dollars are falling in value faster than the market is rising. Crazy times. We now have a tenant who is working, but not paying rent - and according to the CDC we can't evict till January. She's several months behind now, and does anyone really think she'll pay her back rent? Ever? And we are ordered by the CDC? Wacky. Good to be secure.

Congrats!

[RunningBum]

It's a fun ride, right now, for sure! No idea how long it'll keep going. If I was a timer, I would've missed most of this, but luckily I've been staying the course and will continue to do so.

Ever since the days when my employee stock options started being worth something in the 90s, I've kept a spreadsheet for my net worth of investment assets. I actually had a little more at the end of 1999, and probably even more at the height of the dotcom bubble early in 2000, though I don't have a saved file for that. But, if I take into account taxes due (which were considerable on those stock options while I was working), I'm at my peak now.

[GalaxyBoy]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Letj So just curious. Do you mean sell/rebalance in your tax deferred account? I have never rebalanced in my after tax account because of the significant tax hit. I am retired but haven’t had to touch investments yet.

Since the bond funds have also been increasing in value but not as much, it has delivered me to my "age in bonds minus ten" right on schedule from age 55 to age 60, without selling for rebalancing. I have a fair amount of cash as well, which of course doesn't move at all these days. Too much, probably, but one day I dream of finding a house to buy and it certainly helps me sleep at night.

[Lsbcal]

I heard today that about 80% of the US market is institutional. So they are probably driving this and not the Robinhood traders.

The market is up about 12% YTD. Not exactly at the moon yet. Next stop, the moon.