This time is different!!

[copyright1997reloaded]

Quote:

Originally Posted by candrew Glad that you survived the Spanish Flu and are able to regale us with your anecdotes!

Yes, it was a tough time! Isn't it funny that I am not sure about such a recent memory (1918), while I can remember the Black Plague as if it were yesterday.

[steelyman]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bestwifeever So sorry if it appeared I was responding to you! Not at all, I did not quote you (and yes I love a joke and of course Gilda Radner).

Those who remember the early SNL days and “Jaws” can probably imagine the virus knocking at the door.

“Shark Attack!”

[Bestwifeever]

Quote:

Originally Posted by steelyman Those who remember the early SNL days and “Jaws” can probably imagine the virus knocking at the door. “Shark Attack!”

Or

“Coronagram”!

[Retch The Grate]

I'm cutting my automatic monthly investments to 0. BUT, that's because DW just lost her job thanks to a bureaucratic snafu so our cash inflow is down by about 60% until her paperwork goes through and I'd rather keep our net cash position stable rather than spending it down. The market, meh.

[steelyman]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bestwifeever Or “Coronagram”!

“Girl Scout cookies”

[NW-Bound]

Quote:

Originally Posted by copyright1997reloaded Yes, it was a tough time! Isn't it funny that I am not sure about such a recent memory (1918), while I can remember the Black Plague as if it were yesterday.

Hmmm... In all the vampire movies that I have seen, the immortal protagonist always manages to be quite well-funded, and never has to rely on the stock market for his finance.

But then, movies are of course not real life, and a vampire in real life has to make money somehow, I guess.

[MRG]

Quote:

Originally Posted by copyright1997reloaded Yes, it was a tough time! Isn't it funny that I am not sure about such a recent memory (1918), while I can remember the Black Plague as if it were yesterday.

How did the market recover from Black Plague?

I had a call with my Vanguard guy today obviously recent market moves were discussed. He spit out a fact, according to him, that the last 11 similar events in 9 cases the market recovered in 6 months. I think one that took longer was early 80s around AIDS among other things. Maybe the plague was longer too?

[sengsational]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bestwifeever “Coronagram”!

Good one!

[Amethyst]

Probably because he's usually had the Magic of Compounding on his side since at least 1632.

Quote:

Originally Posted by NW-Bound Hmmm... In all the vampire movies that I have seen, the immortal protagonist always manages to be quite well-funded, and never has to rely on the stock market for his finance. .

[Out_the_Door]

Quote:

Originally Posted by NW-Bound Hmmm... In all the vampire movies that I have seen, the immortal protagonist always manages to be quite well-funded, and never has to rely on the stock market for his finance. But then, movies are of course not real life, and a vampire in real life has to make money somehow, I guess.

That's because vampires always put all their money in "Blood Banks"...Sorry, I couldn't resist. . .

[NW-Bound]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Amethyst Probably because he's usually had the Magic of Compounding on his side since at least 1632.

Ding ding ding!!! We have the answer.

[timeforgolf]

This time seems different. Not to sound like an alarmist, but financial preparedness is one thing. Psychological impact from large scale quarantines or product shortages is another. Let's hope we get a break.

[Markola]

It’s different for me to own about 50% bonds and watching them do their job as ballast. Thanks bonds!

[aja8888]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Markola It’s different for me to own about 50% bonds and watching them do their job as ballast. Thanks bonds!

You really mean to say that the bonds are the only securities that are not tanking badly!

[Cayman]

Quote:

Originally Posted by ShokWaveRider Hang on you lot, what is all the panicking about? in 2008 the low was 7449!!!!!! It is now 29,000!!!!! ~400% increase, the Dow can go to ~17k before you should even start to worry.... right?

Absolutely. And it may.... and that's ok. It won't be particularly comfortable. Not knowing where the bottom was and when we'd hit it was especially hard for me in '08. Buckle up!

[ckelly78z]

While I am still working with 10 years until FIRE, it is extremely difficult to stay the course. I keep having to tell myself about all the low price shares I am buying during this downturn, and not to panic sell, and lose money.

[Ronstar]

Quote:

Originally Posted by ckelly78z While I am still working with 10 years until FIRE, it is extremely difficult to stay the course. I keep having to tell myself about all the low price shares I am buying during this downturn, and not to panic sell, and lose money.

For someone still working and investing, this downturn is a good thing. You’ll be buying more shares than before with the same amount of investment dollars.

The crash of 2008 was a good thing for my 401k. It allowed me to buy more shares at lower prices, maxing out contributions up until my retirement in 2014. The result was that I had significantly more shares that increased in value during the recent run up.

[DrRoy]

Quote:

My attitude on it is basically "This time it's different, just like every other time!" Meaning, there are some similarities, there are some differences, but in the end, things will rebound and we will go on to new highs. But yeah, it is hard to stay the course. If I'd have the foresight to sell everything off in October 2007, or even the summer of 2008, and then buy back in around November '08, or wait til the official bottom in March '09, that would have been great. But, it's just too hard to predict these things, and just how far they will, or won't, fall.

In 2008 I was at 82% equities and something around 1.2 beta, so it was like 100% and a really rough ride. Now I am 58% and even beta. That's a lot better.

I did do some Roth conversion that priced at the close yesterday.

[copyright1997reloaded]

Quote:

Originally Posted by NW-Bound Ding ding ding!!! We have the answer.

Yes, compounding has really helped! On the other side, the 4% SWR starts to fall apart over many centuries of withdraws. That's why I still w*rk (although I do get the summers off and a nice break between Fall/Spring terms).

[Ronstar]

In an email from our FA:

"While assessing the impact of the COVID-19 virus on earnings and economic growth is still very much a fluid exercise, we would continue to remind investors that historically similar events have tended to have little long-term impact. Two recent examples that come to mind include the Ebola concerns in 2014 and the SARS outbreak in the early 2000s. While near-term demand is likely to be displaced and company supply chains may be disrupted as a result of the virus, over the intermediate and long term the economic impact from these types of events has generally seen a delay in growth, not a derailment. Further, governments and central banks around the world have already noted the potential impacts the virus could have on the economy, and may move to enact stimulus that could help offset some of the virus’ related weakness. As a result, we would caution against overreacting to headlines from a portfolio standpoint, and near-term volatility may even create opportunity for long-term investors."