Originally Posted by frayne
... I think it is pretty obvious ...
This tells the tale.
Rick Ferri, in "All About Asset Allocation
" reminds us: "There is a classic saying on Wall Street, 'What everybody already knows is not worth knowing.' "
Since all this "pretty obvious" stuff is already baked in, future price moves in the sector will depend on changing investor sentiment and future news, neither of which is predictable. Hence resulting in pseudo random price changes.
You might get lucky, you might not, but your insight is hardly unique and does not differentiate you as an investor. Sorry to say.
Here is a little exercise you might try to see how you are at predicting sector performance: Download a 20-year quilt chart ( https://www.callan.com/periodic-table/
) and cover all but the leftmost column with a sheer of paper. Now forecast the sectors' behavior in the year following, the first year you have covered up, then look. Do that 18 more times and see how you feel about picking sectors.