Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Thoughts on a couple of ETFs
Old 07-25-2020, 07:25 AM   #1
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
frayne's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Chattanooga
Posts: 3,253
Thoughts on a couple of ETFs

IBUY/CLIX/ONLN are all ETFs that hold stocks of online retail companies and seemed to have done very well during the covid pandemic. I think it is pretty obvious the business model/economy dynamic has changed and the brick and mortar retail business will take years to get back to where it was pre-covid, if it ever does. Just wanted to throw out a couple of ETFs that seem to be in a great position to weather the storm and get your thoughts. Also wonder if there are any index MFs that track this online retail index ? Thanks in advance for any and all comments.
__________________
"The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.” Ezra Solomon
frayne is online now   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 07-25-2020, 09:21 AM   #2
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
OldShooter's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: City
Posts: 6,548
Quote:
Originally Posted by frayne View Post
... I think it is pretty obvious ...
This tells the tale.

Rick Ferri, in "All About Asset Allocation" reminds us: "There is a classic saying on Wall Street, 'What everybody already knows is not worth knowing.' "

Since all this "pretty obvious" stuff is already baked in, future price moves in the sector will depend on changing investor sentiment and future news, neither of which is predictable. Hence resulting in pseudo random price changes.

You might get lucky, you might not, but your insight is hardly unique and does not differentiate you as an investor. Sorry to say.

Here is a little exercise you might try to see how you are at predicting sector performance: Download a 20-year quilt chart ( https://www.callan.com/periodic-table/ ) and cover all but the leftmost column with a sheer of paper. Now forecast the sectors' behavior in the year following, the first year you have covered up, then look. Do that 18 more times and see how you feel about picking sectors.
OldShooter is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-25-2020, 10:05 AM   #3
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Sunset's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2014
Location: Spending the Kids Inheritance and living in Chicago
Posts: 11,324
If online sales are the thing, I think I should buy Amazon...

Interestingly, Amazon is not one of the 10 top holdings of IBUY
__________________
Fortune favors the prepared mind. ... Louis Pasteur
Sunset is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-25-2020, 01:25 PM   #4
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
pb4uski's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Sarasota, FL & Vermont
Posts: 29,195
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sunset View Post
If online sales are the thing, I think I should buy Amazon... ....
I like the company and am a long-time customer, but every time I look at it I choke on the P/E ratio... ~144 currently... but a lot better than TSLA's 738 P/E ratio.
__________________
If something cannot endure laughter.... it cannot endure.
Patience is the art of concealing your impatience.
Slow and steady wins the race.

Retired Jan 2012 at age 56...target 65/35/0 AA TBD
pb4uski is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-25-2020, 01:38 PM   #5
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
OldShooter's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: City
Posts: 6,548
Quote:
Originally Posted by pb4uski View Post
I like the company and am a long-time customer, but every time I look at it I choke on the P/E ratio... ~144 currently... but a lot better than TSLA's 738 P/E ratio.
A good company is not necessarily a good investment.

Here is Graham (in "The Intelligent Investor") on the problem:
" ... we hope to implant in the reader a tendency to measure or quantify. For 99 issues out of 100 we could say that at some price they are cheap enough to buy and at some other price they would be so dear that they should be sold. The habit of relating what is paid to what is being offered is an invaluable trait in investment. In an article in a women’s magazine many years ago we advised the readers to buy their stocks as they bought their groceries, not as they bought their perfume. The really dreadful losses of the past few years (and on many similar occasions before) were realized in those common-stock issues where the buyer forgot to ask “How much?"
OldShooter is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-25-2020, 04:28 PM   #6
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Sunset's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2014
Location: Spending the Kids Inheritance and living in Chicago
Posts: 11,324
Quote:
Originally Posted by pb4uski View Post
I like the company and am a long-time customer, but every time I look at it I choke on the P/E ratio... ~144 currently... but a lot better than TSLA's 738 P/E ratio.
Yes I was smart enough not to buy Amazon at $11 (March 01, 2001) as it was too expensive, and I'm smart enough to not buy it now at $3,004 for the same reason .
__________________
Fortune favors the prepared mind. ... Louis Pasteur
Sunset is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Thoughts on Bullet Share Bond ETFs johkar FIRE and Money 10 09-08-2019 12:21 PM
Comparing Working Couple's Expenses to Retired Couple DFW_M5 FIRE and Money 38 01-19-2015 06:38 PM
My 2000th + Post a couple of thoughts dex Life after FIRE 54 05-02-2008 04:45 AM
A couple stocks out, a couple ones in... Art G Stock Picking and Market Strategy 0 02-11-2008 09:03 AM
Any thoughts on Wisdom Tree ETFs? AirJordan FIRE and Money 4 07-07-2007 04:24 PM

» Quick Links

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 09:14 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.