Thoughts on a couple of ETFs

[frayne]

IBUY/CLIX/ONLN are all ETFs that hold stocks of online retail companies and seemed to have done very well during the covid pandemic. I think it is pretty obvious the business model/economy dynamic has changed and the brick and mortar retail business will take years to get back to where it was pre-covid, if it ever does. Just wanted to throw out a couple of ETFs that seem to be in a great position to weather the storm and get your thoughts. Also wonder if there are any index MFs that track this online retail index ? Thanks in advance for any and all comments.

[OldShooter]

Quote:

Originally Posted by frayne ... I think it is pretty obvious ...

This tells the tale.

Rick Ferri, in "All About Asset Allocation" reminds us: "There is a classic saying on Wall Street, 'What everybody already knows is not worth knowing.' "

Since all this "pretty obvious" stuff is already baked in, future price moves in the sector will depend on changing investor sentiment and future news, neither of which is predictable. Hence resulting in pseudo random price changes.

You might get lucky, you might not, but your insight is hardly unique and does not differentiate you as an investor. Sorry to say.

Here is a little exercise you might try to see how you are at predicting sector performance: Download a 20-year quilt chart ( https://www.callan.com/periodic-table/ ) and cover all but the leftmost column with a sheer of paper. Now forecast the sectors' behavior in the year following, the first year you have covered up, then look. Do that 18 more times and see how you feel about picking sectors.

[Sunset]

If online sales are the thing, I think I should buy Amazon...

Interestingly, Amazon is not one of the 10 top holdings of IBUY

[pb4uski]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sunset If online sales are the thing, I think I should buy Amazon... ....

I like the company and am a long-time customer, but every time I look at it I choke on the P/E ratio... ~144 currently... but a lot better than TSLA's 738 P/E ratio.

[OldShooter]

Quote:

Originally Posted by pb4uski I like the company and am a long-time customer, but every time I look at it I choke on the P/E ratio... ~144 currently... but a lot better than TSLA's 738 P/E ratio.

A good company is not necessarily a good investment.

Here is Graham (in "The Intelligent Investor") on the problem:

" ... we hope to implant in the reader a tendency to measure or quantify. For 99 issues out of 100 we could say that at some price they are cheap enough to buy and at some other price they would be so dear that they should be sold. The habit of relating what is paid to what is being offered is an invaluable trait in investment. In an article in a women’s magazine many years ago we advised the readers to buy their stocks as they bought their groceries, not as they bought their perfume. The really dreadful losses of the past few years (and on many similar occasions before) were realized in those common-stock issues where the buyer forgot to ask “How much?"

[Sunset]

Quote:

Originally Posted by pb4uski I like the company and am a long-time customer, but every time I look at it I choke on the P/E ratio... ~144 currently... but a lot better than TSLA's 738 P/E ratio.

Yes I was smart enough not to buy Amazon at $11 (March 01, 2001) as it was too expensive, and I'm smart enough to not buy it now at $3,004 for the same reason .