Thoughts on investing in current market climate

[Notmuchlonger]

Quote:

Originally Posted by al_bundy i personally think these target funds are a scam to keep the boomers money longer and keep collecting fees for 30 years the financial media told us to rebalance into bonds as we get older. of course the stock fund people don't want to lose the fees, so they make up these target retirement funds

You can duplicate the target funds yourself for a cheaper total expense ratio

[unclemick]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Notmuchlonger You can duplicate the target funds yourself for a cheaper total expense ratio

Target Retirement 2015 0.19% expense ratio, 3.07% current yield - plus early SS, plus small non cola pension meets the fundamental technical requirement for my ER - aka ENOUGH! .

With no spreadsheets for rebalancing or budgeting(just cheap habit patterns) and my trusty No. 2 pencil gathering dust - I don't even bill myself an hourly rate for my time.

Now the putz - picking a few good stocks to keep the hormones in check I put in the catagory of golf, kayaks, going to the gym etc, etc. Do not even count the hours.

Others might call it disease management.

heh heh heh - I prefer it to be a fun pursuit of the Holy Grail - sort like the mythical Jimmy Buffett's Margaritaville - although I'm not a Parrothead. Kansas City is just ducky with me - so far!

[al_bundy]

the point of the funds is to keep you in one fund for life rather than rebalancing into different asset classes and different funds and keep you paying expense ratios into that fund

[al_bundy]

calculated risk is running a story about problems in the municipal bond market. looking to put some safe money in there maybe next week maybe in the next few weeks

Vallejo, California is close to filing BK and with the problems at Ambac and MBIA there are some risks to the NAV price

[DblDoc]

Quote:

Originally Posted by al_bundy the point of the funds is to keep you in one fund for life rather than rebalancing into different asset classes and different funds and keep you paying expense ratios into that fund

Which as UncleMick pointed out is low (at Vanguard). How much would many investors have wasted spent on transaction fees etc moving their money around chasing the latest hot asset. For many these are a much better retirement investment then the vast majority of alternatives out there.

DD

[chinaco]

Long-term investor. I will rebalance as normal.

I continue to add to my equity position through my 401k.

The rest of our new money goes to fixed since we are preparing for FIRE in the next few years.

[Patrick]

Quote:

Originally Posted by novaman So the news is not encouraging. Real estate downturn, sub prime mess, weak dollar, inflation--stagflation. What are your thoughts on investment strategies for today?

I got out of US-dollar-denominated assets as much as possible (dollar's on the downswing and with the Fed printing money like crazy, it will probably go lower). The Fed can't keep printing money forever without it having a negative effect on the dollar. When the dollar falls your buying power disappears. If you're in US dollar assets, you may have a few more dollars after a while, but they will buy less because prices will go up. The Fed says there's no inflation - Ha! Just take a short drive to the gas pump or the grocery store.

Anyway, here's what I'm doing with my money:

I sold my S&P 500 Index fund.

I sold my REITs, which had been way down, and will probably continue to fall as the sub-prime mess expands.

I bought a gold mining fund (UNWPX), which has been doing great lately, and probably will continue to as the dollar falls and investors flee to hard assets.

I shorted the NASDAQ by buying the QID ETF.

I shorted financials with the SKF ETF.

I bought some foreign currency and energy stocks.

I'm holding my PCRDX commodities fund.

I shorted GM due to their massive debt and Yahoo because the Microsoft deal will probably fall apart.

I shorted Diebold today on my guess that Diebold will reject the takeover bid from United Technologies.

So far this mix seems to be doing pretty good.

I'm going to open a commodity futures account so I can speculate with a small portion of my assets and maybe hit the big one out of the park.

Cheers,

Patrick

[al_bundy]

Quote:

Originally Posted by unclemick Target Retirement 2015 0.19% expense ratio, 3.07% current yield - plus early SS, plus small non cola pension meets the fundamental technical requirement for my ER - aka ENOUGH! . With no spreadsheets for rebalancing or budgeting(just cheap habit patterns) and my trusty No. 2 pencil gathering dust - I don't even bill myself an hourly rate for my time. Now the putz - picking a few good stocks to keep the hormones in check I put in the catagory of golf, kayaks, going to the gym etc, etc. Do not even count the hours. Others might call it disease management. heh heh heh - I prefer it to be a fun pursuit of the Holy Grail - sort like the mythical Jimmy Buffett's Margaritaville - although I'm not a Parrothead. Kansas City is just ducky with me - so far!

what is the total return? vanguard says just over 9% since inception which is less than their other funds.

[al_bundy]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Patrick I got out of US-dollar-denominated assets as much as possible (dollar's on the downswing and with the Fed printing money like crazy, it will probably go lower). The Fed can't keep printing money forever without it having a negative effect on the dollar. When the dollar falls your buying power disappears. If you're in US dollar assets, you may have a few more dollars after a while, but they will buy less because prices will go up. The Fed says there's no inflation - Ha! Just take a short drive to the gas pump or the grocery store. Anyway, here's what I'm doing with my money: I sold my S&P 500 Index fund. I sold my REITs, which had been way down, and will probably continue to fall as the sub-prime mess expands. I bought a gold mining fund (UNWPX), which has been doing great lately, and probably will continue to as the dollar falls and investors flee to hard assets. I shorted the NASDAQ by buying the QID ETF. I shorted financials with the SKF ETF. I bought some foreign currency and energy stocks. I'm holding my PCRDX commodities fund. I shorted GM due to their massive debt and Yahoo because the Microsoft deal will probably fall apart. I shorted Diebold today on my guess that Diebold will reject the takeover bid from United Technologies. So far this mix seems to be doing pretty good. I'm going to open a commodity futures account so I can speculate with a small portion of my assets and maybe hit the big one out of the park. Cheers, Patrick

damn, and i'm trying to get into a US $$$$ asset as i type this

trying to buy some QID but it's too expensive compared to nasdaq's performance today. want to pay around $53.50 and it's $54.67 as i type this

[Patrick]

Quote:

Originally Posted by al_bundy damn, and i'm trying to get into a US $$$$ asset as i type this trying to buy some QID but it's too expensive compared to nasdaq's performance today. want to pay around $53.50 and it's $54.67 as i type this

Well, you'd be shorting the market, which appears to be a good thing at this point. Jump on in, the water's fine.

[al_bundy]

might have us a reversal in the last 15 minutes

looks like an inverse head and shoulders on the sp500 and nasdaq

[FinanceDude]

Quote:

Originally Posted by al_bundy i personally think these target funds are a scam to keep the boomers money longer and keep collecting fees for 30 years the financial media told us to rebalance into bonds as we get older. of course the stock fund people don't want to lose the fees, so they make up these target retirement funds

Are you including Vanguard in that thought, because they're the biggest player in that market.......

FWIW,you can use ETF's to do a target fund yourself, and almost as cheap.........

[innova]

Lots of laughs today people

Quote:

the point of the funds is to keep you in one fund for life rather than rebalancing into different asset classes and different funds and keep you paying expense ratios into that fund

Quote:

FWIW,you can use ETF's to do a target fund yourself, and almost as cheap

al - Have you ever looked at the holdings of TR funds? Thats kind of the point, to keep you in one fund for life... ie - don't mess with it, don't market time, its intended for hands-off people who would otherwise get raked over by their greedy commission-based FA.

Your complaint about not rebalancing into different asset classes may make some believe you have no idea what a TR fund is made of (different asset classes?).

Quote:

looks like an inverse head and shoulders on the sp500 and nasdaq

No predicative value whatsoever. You cannot predict the future by looking at past price movements. This has been debunked so many times and yet we still have chartists out there (hope springs eternal).

The market timers here are always good for a laugh with their doom and gloom. Perhaps a little history lesson may make some feel better. Recall in the early 1990s how bad things were, with many of the pundits at the time saying the market was overvalued, due for a huge correction, we should be all in cash, etc.

What happened? The biggest bull run of the century.

Sorry, but no matter how informed you think you are the odds are against you succeeding by market timing.

[RockOn]

Quote:

Originally Posted by innova Lots of laughs today people Sorry, but no matter how informed you think you are the odds are against you succeeding by market timing.

I always wonder, why are those who do not believe in market timing so sure it is wrong to try it. I've read all the studies, etc., but I think there are people out there that have made a lot of money market timing. I made quite a bit of money doing it myself, riding short term waves, jumping in and out. I took very little risk and was lucky (?) enough to quit when it no longer worked (the trendiness vanished). Trading markets in solid trends is not impossible.

An example is the Kirk blog. He has done very well for years, check out his record. He may not be able to do it forever, but he could quit right now and he'd be ahead of anyone buying and holding. The odds may be against you, but it is not impossible in my opinion.

Has anyone else made any money trading? I say give market timers a break. The odds may be against them but they can operate under a much less risky senario than the buy and holders which is why they do it. Some win, and probably more lose, but 100% do not lose.

P.S. I just looked up the Kirk record, around 25% a year for 8 years, I believe all of that was fully trackable on his site.

[al_bundy]

they teach at business schools, good enough for me

and it was originally pioneered by a nobody named Charles Dow

[al_bundy]

Quote:

Originally Posted by innova Lots of laughs today people al - Have you ever looked at the holdings of TR funds? Thats kind of the point, to keep you in one fund for life... ie - don't mess with it, don't market time, its intended for hands-off people who would otherwise get raked over by their greedy commission-based FA. Your complaint about not rebalancing into different asset classes may make some believe you have no idea what a TR fund is made of (different asset classes?). No predicative value whatsoever. You cannot predict the future by looking at past price movements. This has been debunked so many times and yet we still have chartists out there (hope springs eternal). The market timers here are always good for a laugh with their doom and gloom. Perhaps a little history lesson may make some feel better. Recall in the early 1990s how bad things were, with many of the pundits at the time saying the market was overvalued, due for a huge correction, we should be all in cash, etc. What happened? The biggest bull run of the century. Sorry, but no matter how informed you think you are the odds are against you succeeding by market timing.

saved me some cash by keeping me from buying qid today

i know a devout buy and holder, kind of sad to see him lose a lot of money several years ago holding junk while he kept faith that it would come back

and FA's are for morons

[Art G]

Looks to me like QID hits resistance around $60.64. JMO.

[Patrick]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Art G Looks to me like QID hits resistance around $60.64. JMO.

Are you using technical analysis for this conclusion?

[Art G]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Patrick Are you using technical analysis for this conclusion?

Ayep.

[FinanceDude]

Quote:

Originally Posted by innova Lots of laughs today people

Your post made me chuckle.........

I for one think the old "myth" that you should be more and more into bonds as you get older should be thrown out the window in lieu of people living longer and longer. Do YOU really want to be 65-70% in BONDs when you are 75? I know I don't............