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Old 03-24-2020, 04:01 PM   #101
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It seems the tide is changing from saving people to save the economy. Things could be changing in the next few weeks in that regard. Saw the (I believe) Texas Lt. Governor saying he believes most seniors would risk death for the sake of their grandchildren having a good future. When you hear people saying that in public, the tide may be turning. Trump seems to be hinting that also.

He knows he will get preferential treatment if it comes down to it that the average person won't. He doesn't speak for most people. The tide is only changing from certain people. My governor just stated that the social distancing orders may be extended even further out, which is what I was expecting. The healthcare system is having trouble keeping up and getting supplies even in lockdown mode, and the worst, tragically, is yet to come.
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Old 03-24-2020, 04:21 PM   #102
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Originally Posted by garyt View Post
It seems the tide is changing from saving people to save the economy. Things could be changing in the next few weeks in that regard. Saw the (I believe) Texas Lt. Governor saying he believes most seniors would risk death for the sake of their grandchildren having a good future. When you hear people saying that in public, the tide may be turning. Trump seems to be hinting that also.
I read that this morning. Yes, he's a Texan. My first thought was that he is crazy. He says and does a lot of things I think are crazy. But there is a certain cold logic to it...

What is the end game here? Obviously, a vaccine. As a wild optimist, that's at least a year away. We can't keep the economy locked down for a year.

What he's suggesting is we keep the most-at-risk of us locked down and let everyone else go back to work and school. They get the virus, some get sick, some really sick, some dead. But they don't get it again. The herd gets immunity and us high risk folks can rejoin the world.

-- Doug
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Old 03-24-2020, 04:33 PM   #103
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I read that this morning. Yes, he's a Texan. My first thought was that he is crazy. He says and does a lot of things I think are crazy. But there is a certain cold logic to it...

What is the end game here? Obviously, a vaccine. As a wild optimist, that's at least a year away. We can't keep the economy locked down for a year.

What he's suggesting is we keep the most-at-risk of us locked down and let everyone else go back to work and school. They get the virus, some get sick, some really sick, some dead. But they don't get it again. The herd gets immunity and us high risk folks can rejoin the world.

-- Doug
Yeah, the "when" and "how many" in that proposition are troubling. Exponents are tricky and many people don't get that at any instinctive level. You can't take that decision back.
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Old 03-24-2020, 05:08 PM   #104
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Maybe I will prove to be wrong, but this just looks like a bear market rally. CNBC had a chart up showing all the other days with similar % gains. Except for on in 87, all those dates were in 1929-33 or the fourth quarter of 2008. I'd like to see a bottom that gets tested successfully a few times.
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Old 03-24-2020, 05:30 PM   #105
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Yeah, the "when" and "how many" in that proposition are troubling. Exponents are tricky and many people don't get that at any instinctive level. You can't take that decision back.
You nailed the core of the problem. Varying levels of lock down vary the rate of growth of the virus "the exponent". But we don't have near enough information to do that calculation with any precision.

Too much lock down and we either have a dead economy or a rebound in the virus because not enough people have caught it for herd immunity.

Too little lock down and people who would have been seriously sick are dead because we don't have enough medical care to treat them. This is the horror in Italy. In Dallas, Texas the focus is on preventing this.

Finally, we are doing this by looking in the rear view mirror. We have to. The effects on the economy are only visible with a few weeks lag. The virus has a two week or so lag before showing symptoms. Given the limited testing available, there may be 2 to 20 times as many infected people as reported.

Ain't I the cheery one today?

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Old 03-24-2020, 05:32 PM   #106
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Bought 1000 shares of F at $4.11 yesterday, hoping to get a $2k bump over the next couple of weeks. If not, I will just hold for a month or two. Not much in the game, but just "gampling" since my trip to Vegas was cancelled.
I am thinking F is a great buy at $4. With them getting ready for electric mustangs this may be the deal of the century.

What service does everyone use to buy stocks anyway.
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Old 03-24-2020, 05:33 PM   #107
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The unemployment claims data will be entertaining in the next few weeks. I am reading that here in CO the system simply cannot process all the claims. Website crashes, help line clogged. There was an article in the paper that the customer service line which usually gets 9,000 calls a week got over 180,000 this morning.
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Old 03-24-2020, 05:34 PM   #108
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I am thinking F is a great buy at $4. With them getting ready for electric mustangs this may be the deal of the century.

What service does everyone use to buy stocks anyway.
I would suggest Schwab or Fidelity. Lets see if Ford survives first, shall we?
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Old 03-24-2020, 05:45 PM   #109
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People will say I'm crazy, but yesterday I bought two 3X ETFs - SPXL and TNA. Almost bought 3X ETF SOXL, and wished I had. The objective the of the 3X ETFs is not to ride them to market heights, but to recoup losses faster, and then back to traditional investments. Not recommended for the faint of heart, as buying them will make your rear-end clench.
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Old 03-24-2020, 05:47 PM   #110
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Yes, I'm dipping into that market too. A rated, 4% yield, federal tax exempt. Going out a little longer than you, though, to 2024-2026.
I have muni’s out past 2027 and beyond, but the yields are not as attractive as the shorter durations so that is where I was concentrating my buys, plus I needed to filled the ‘20, ‘21, ‘22 rungs of my ladder. That is where I had the most called bonds. I filled those buckets back up and increased my overall yield by a lot.
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Old 03-24-2020, 05:49 PM   #111
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My guess is you'll have another chance or two to "buy low".
Yep - one of my tax loss harvests turned into a slight gain today.

Now I have to wait some more.
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Old 03-24-2020, 05:50 PM   #112
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Maybe I will prove to be wrong, but this just looks like a bear market rally. CNBC had a chart up showing all the other days with similar % gains. Except for on in 87, all those dates were in 1929-33 or the fourth quarter of 2008. I'd like to see a bottom that gets tested successfully a few times.
I also heard them say that if we go up 30%, it would still be technically a bear market rally.

We have a long way to go. Lots of time to buy this market.
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Old 03-24-2020, 05:53 PM   #113
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I don't understand this logic. With the virus now in every state, and contagious before showing symptoms, and we can't completely isolate everyone due to workers in grocery stores, gas stations, hospitals, delivery ect.. Why wouldn't the number of infected explode once the isolated are released into the currently infected working population? It seems to me, this virus will survive until there is enough immunity in the population to starve if off. Am I missing something in this line of thinking?
Not to me.

Unless the infected are aggressively identified and in quarantine as well as their contacts, it will just spread again. Apparently China did this too outside of Wuhan which people in the US don't realize.

I guess some folks are thinking: let the supposedly vulnerable stay home indefinitely, keep the nursing homes in lockdown, and the rest of the population just get through the infection and develop immunity?

I don't think any country has tried that yet. And how do you avoid hospital overload in that scenario?
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Old 03-24-2020, 06:17 PM   #114
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Bought a good size chunk of GE, XOM and WMT yesterday. I had considered CVX too but missed it . I'll watch it a few more days and probably buy more of each of them especially if any of them takes a big hit.
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Old 03-24-2020, 06:52 PM   #115
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I am partially re balancing but tax loss harvesting is a good idea
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Old 03-24-2020, 06:56 PM   #116
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I would suggest Schwab or Fidelity. Lets see if Ford survives first, shall we?
F F, piece of crap company doesn't honor warranty. Hope they go bankrupt twice.
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Old 03-24-2020, 07:38 PM   #117
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Somewhat related- Is there a source for the S&P close each day? Something that I could use as a lookup for charting portfolio performance vs S&P?
Yahoo has historical data in table form for indexes and securities.
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Old 03-24-2020, 07:53 PM   #118
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Dow up 2113 points today, before Vanguard completed my transactions, of course!

Oh well. On the bright side, I think I have finally perfected the "Reverse Wheee!!!".
Just out of curiosity, have you ever considered switching from the mutual funds to the ETF versions? I did it just to avoid this very situation. I like the ability to know the price I am buying/selling for. That's assuming there is an ETF alternative. I know things like Wellesley don't have them.
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Old 03-24-2020, 07:57 PM   #119
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I had some extra money (because I’m not eating out, traveling) so I added a $75/week buy at Vanguard (split between Total Stock Market and Wellington). This will run for the next year. It may not be the bottom, but it’s better than it has been in years. I did a similar thing in 2008.
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Old 03-24-2020, 08:01 PM   #120
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I have been ultra conservative for the last 10 years.

I jumped into the stock market last week and today for about $85k. I pretty much bought aristocrat dividend stocks that were way down. Ko, dis, f, etc etc.

If there is another drop later, I will buy a bit more, but I am trying to keep our nest egg protected in CD, annuities, and money market accounts.

But, what do I know. I don't want to be a head in the sand passive observer.

We all have to draw our own lines.

There is absolutely no credible information about the end result of this covid thing.

Everything from what Trump is putting out, to bodies lined up along the road, to conspiracy theories about China and Bill Gates etc.

I bet that I have been exposed to covid for months by now. I have had fevers here and there since Jan. I get a little hot, then it goes away. I have had an off and on cough as well. Call it a cold, allergies, or covid. I care only that I don't want to be the guy that hurts anyone.

Until I develop the bad covid symptoms I can't get tested. At this point, I hope I have an immunity to it. But, it doesn't matter because my wife works at the hospital. I can catch it from her every night.

I have been exercising moderately for years, I am in decent shape and maybe that is why I am ok today.

I don't want to spread this thing. I am off work now indefinitely because my wife works at the hospital in the pharmacy.

What else can we do. I refuse to be afraid. That only makes me weak.

That is my situation.
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