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Major Tom · 05-28-2014, 05:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NW-Bound

Call me a pessimist, but I do not like this. People are just too darn happy. I have seen this before. Life cannot be rosy all the time.

True, but it could go on being rosy for quite a while yet. In the few market run-ups during which I was paying attention (both equities and real estate), I remember things feeling heady, frothy, whatever you want to call it, for quite a long time, before more moribund times prevailed.

NW-Bound · 05-28-2014, 05:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ejman

I really don't understand all the angst on this topic...

No, not really angst for me, as I have been through some rough time before, and with less money than now, and while having higher expenses. I just want to beat the "herd", the unkempt masses.

Yes, one can be right but too early. Patient, patient... Investing is a mental game for me.

inquisitive · 05-28-2014, 06:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NW-Bound

I do not know of an overriding investor sentiment poll, but there are many fragmented polls. Perhaps one can tabulate them to find a majority consensus to act against.

Here's one for example (it is neutral right now): Sentiment Survey | AAII: The American Association of Individual Investors.

Yes, was familiar with that one. They are too educated for me to do anything based on it.

NW-Bound · 05-28-2014, 07:45 PM

I do not follow these polls, other than occasionally run across a mention in the media. But how about this one: Fear & Greed Index - Investor Sentiment - CNNMoney?

According to the above poll, the fear-greed indicator is in the "fear" region right now, and the put/call-option indicator is in the "extreme fear" range. Darn! I recently wrote covered calls on two leveraged ETFs to hedge, so I am actually in the herd. Darn!

Anyway, in 2000 one can get plenty of indication from anecdotes. We had taxi drivers, hair dressers, bar tenders all talking about buying dot-coms or Internet stocks and making money over fist. However, we are nowhere near that point right now.

So, I think I may just sit back and patiently wait, while being thankful for what the market god is giving me. A correction may come, and I already have cash to buy. Other than a correction, is there any reason to expect a crash? I do not see any.

And by the way, trading before/after a crash is extremely lucrative, but a 10% correction is harder to make good money out of. And trading a correction would not get me but 1% or 2% extra gain for the portfolio, unless one goes 100% between cash and equities, and I never do that. Still, I would try to get that extra bit of money for fun. Maybe it can pay for an extra travel trip or two.

CaliforniaMan · 05-28-2014, 07:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NW-Bound

I do not follow these polls, other than occasionally run across a mention in the media. But how about this one: Fear & Greed Index - Investor Sentiment - CNNMoney?

According to the above poll, the fear-greed indicator is in the "fear" region right now, and the put/call-option indicator is in the "extreme fear" range. Darn! I recently wrote covered calls on two leveraged ETFs to hedge, so I am actually in the herd. Darn!

Anyway, in 2000 one can get plenty of indication from anecdotes. We had taxi drivers, hair dressers, bar tenders all talking about buying dot-coms or Internet stocks and making money over fists. However, we are nowhere at that point right now.

So, I think I may just sit back and patiently wait, while being thankful for what the market god is giving me. A correction may come, and I already have cash to buy. Other than a correction, is there any reason to expect a crash? I do not see any.

That is one very interesting observation. I too remember this "group" was buying anything back then. I get the impression that this same group is now buying nothing, preferring to talk instead about the 1%-ers, market manipulation, government manipulation, and the great fall coming to even things out.

Am I correct in this perception or all wrong?