Top 7 Ways to Tell a Bear Market is Coming........

[FinanceDude]

1)When the WSJ publishes an article that states Warren Buffet should retire because Berkshire Hathaway has lagged the S&P 500 Index the past 3 years..........

2)When you're getting stock tips from 70+ year old people who have never bought anything but CD's in their life............

3)When you start seeing headlines in popular personal finance magazines that begin: "Want to retire with $1 million in 3-5 years? Read on!"

4)When Abby Joseph Cohen starts getting interviewed a lot..........

5)When your banker suggests taking a HELOC to use to leverage in the stock market, so you can use the gains to pay off your mortgage............

6)When 30% of the people you know are daytrading...........

7)When you hear things like: "I don't want to get toally crazy, I ONLY want to get 40-50% a year consistently, how hard can that be?"

[Ed_The_Gypsy]

Quote:

7)When you hear things like: "I don't want to get toally crazy, I ONLY want to get 40-50% a year consistently, how hard can that be?"

Why should I take a cut?

[Mwsinron]

If you keep claiming there will be a bear market eventually you will be right!

[Nords]

8.) "This time it's really different!"

[mathjak107]

When you pick up your wife at the nail place and she tells you about the stock tips she got at the store.

[Lazarus]

Last big run up the security guards at work were giving stock tips.

[riskadverse]

When CNBC is getting ready to celebrate an all time high in the DOW.

[d]

that day after i increase my allocation to equities

[runchman]

when your non-investing brother in law tells you he's going to buy a few shares of qualcomm.

Next time I'll know and sell everything

[semtex]

9) equity is a kind of scarce resource.

[modlair]

A bear market is always coming. You don't need any signs to know that. There's another one coming after that one, too.

[Mr._johngalt]

Quote:

Originally Posted by rodmail A bear market is always coming.* You don't need any signs to know that.* There's another one coming after that one, too.

Ooh! Good one.............

JG

[dmpi]

people laugh at this. But I sure wish I had the skill or ability to pick a market top. I'm not talking about the littles ups and downs of the market, but rather the real market top. Like 1987,1992 & 2000. In the 2000 top, the "experts" call the top years before it actually happen. Some so-called market experts are calling a market top right now!

[Nords]

Quote:

Originally Posted by dmpi Some so-called market experts are calling a market top right now!

And here's another one...

[TromboneAl]

FinanceDude, are you saying that some of these things are happening now, or just talking in general about how to spot an impending bear market?

'Cause I'm not seeing anything of these things happening. *

And as for the skill or ability to pick a top, that doesn't exist, and the experts can't do it either.

[haha]

Quote:

Originally Posted by TromboneAl And as for the skill or ability to pick a top, that doesn't exist, and the experts can't do it either.

No doubt about that. Yet almost anyone can pick zones where he/she would feel foolish and very exposed if a large drop were to ensue, but not similarly discomfited if a large upswing transpired.

To me that is still a real issue, and one worth looking at.

Missed gains are just missed gains, but in a low yield environment like today, a large drop (should one occur) carries the possibility of lasting real losses.

Ha

[FinanceDude]

Quote:

Originally Posted by TromboneAl FinanceDude, are you saying that some of these things are happening now, or just talking in general about how to spot an impending bear market? 'Cause I'm not seeing anything of these things happening. * And as for the skill or ability to pick a top, that doesn't exist, and the experts can't do it either.

All of those things were things that happened to me in 1999-2000..........makes them even more poignant to me...............

I don't see them either, we are far from the "investing panic" of the late 90's..............

If I had the ability to pick the top, I would ER in my own COUNTRY, because I'd have enough money to do so.............

[Ed_The_Gypsy]

Quote:

If I had the ability to pick the top, I would ER in my own COUNTRY...

I would settle for retirement in the country of my birth. The jury is still out.

[dmpi]

I've always been a buy and hold investor. During the dot-com bust I was lucky enough to hold S&P500 rather than tech. Never the less, that was painful watching your investment go down for three straight years. I don't want to go thru this again, so I'm looking for signs/indicators on how to spot a top. I figure you don't have to pick the very top. Even if you early or late a year you can still come out ahead, and be under a lot less stress.

[dex]

Quote:

Originally Posted by FinanceDude All of those things were things that happened to me in 1999-2000..........makes them even more poignant to me............... I don't see them either, we are far from the "investing panic" of the late 90's.............. If I had the ability to pick the top, I would ER in my own COUNTRY, because I'd have enough money to do so.............

With no disrespect intended; I am confused to the intent of your orginal post. Please explain if you wish. I am familar with the concept of sentiment and contrarian inticators you are refering to.

Thanks