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Old 08-04-2022, 09:02 PM   #21
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Don't worry about paying the taxes "early", or the dollar amount. Only the percent of each dollar withdraw taken in taxes counts. By converting gradually you minimize the tax brackets the withdrawals fall into. By converting too much you may leave potential low tax brackets unfilled late in retirement. Also consider that one spouse may die and the surviving spouse would be taxed as a single tax payer, with effectively higher tax rates for the same income.

A good way to think of your tIRA is this: Assume everything will come out at a 20% tax rate (for simplification). Then 20% of your tIRA belongs to the IRS. Pay them now or invest it for them and pay it later, 20% of every dollar withdrawn is theirs and they always own 20% of your tIRA balance. There is no advantage (if you can't change your tax rate) in delaying taxes like there is in a taxable account. Your advantage comes if you can reduce that 20% for at least some of the money. Then you get to take some of the IRS's money as your own.

At a fixed 20% tax rate your $100k tIRA is the same as an $80k Roth IRA. There's $80k of your tax-free money in that tIRA and $20k of the IRS's money in it as well. So everything being equal in this simple case, a Roth conversion is a total wash. The timing doesn't matter, you're just investing the IRS's money for a longer time if you wait.

An extra benefit of a Roth conversion is that when you withdraw that $100k and pay the IRS their $20k (or maybe it's now $200k and $40k after doubling your investment) you are still eligible to place a full $100k into the Roth, not just your $80k. So you pay the $20k taxes from your taxable account (possibly incurring taxable capital gains before you normally would, so it may not be without some cost), and put the full $100k in the Roth. Now $20k that was in your taxable account is in your Roth account instead, growing tax free. The value of that tax free growth may be nothing to something substantial (if you are highly taxed and leave it to grow tax free for a long time.)

So my financial optimization is to determine how much to withdraw from the tIRA/t401k each year to essentially minimize the tax rate of each dollar withdrawn throughout retirement (I actually try to maximize what I can spend, inflation adjusted, but close enough). I'll use the withdrawal for expenses if necessary (when taxable account dollars dry up) and everything else goes into the Roth for later.

And the exception to my lowest tax rate rule is when the added benefit of moving taxable money into the Roth outweighs a (slightly) higher withdrawal tax rate when all is said and done. It's not a big driver, but favors larger Roth conversions earlier in the process when your money has a longer time to grow in the Roth. About 10 years before Roth withdrawals will start was my cutoff for pushing the tax rate a little bit.

Be sure to consider income tax/credit/subsidy trigger levels that may add to your effective tax rate when converting. And also consider using the 0% capital gains tax rate that may be available to you. Hopefully many of these special cases won't apply or will always apply, simplifying your calculations.
+1

The graph OP posted is not optimizing the right thing. So OP seems to be set up to make an expensive mistake. As Animorph says, you want to avoid high tax brackets, the way to do that is to keep your tax bracket level through the years with Roth Conversions, with the caveat that if you need ACA premium credits, those are top priority.

The important thing to optimize is the after tax value at end of life (or to heirs after they withdraw any money left in the tIRA). OP should do some more reading about the program capability, it would be very disappointing if OP's graph is the kind of thing a commercial program is guiding the user to do.
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Old 08-04-2022, 09:30 PM   #22
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Originally Posted by Exchme View Post
+1

The graph OP posted is not optimizing the right thing. So OP seems to be set up to make an expensive mistake. As Animorph says, you want to avoid high tax brackets, the way to do that is to keep your tax bracket level through the years with Roth Conversions, with the caveat that if you need ACA premium credits, those are top priority.

The important thing to optimize is the after tax value at end of life (or to heirs after they withdraw any money left in the tIRA). OP should do some more reading about the program capability, it would be very disappointing if OP's graph is the kind of thing a commercial program is guiding the user to do.
I really appreciate the feedback for everyone. I will do some more reading on this topic. Their is no heirs or children to leave money to. The goal is for my wife and I to spend that dough during retirement.
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Old 08-05-2022, 10:41 AM   #23
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+1
The graph OP posted is not optimizing the right thing. So OP seems to be set up to make an expensive mistake. As Animorph says, you want to avoid high tax brackets, the way to do that is to keep your tax bracket level through the years with Roth Conversions, with the caveat that if you need ACA premium credits, those are top priority.
I completely agree on levelizing your retirement income up through start of RMDs by doing Roth conversions, with annual increases in AGI tracking inflation.
That's basically what I did...
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Old 08-05-2022, 02:05 PM   #24
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I would love to pay something to perform a "Traditional 401k Roth conversion optimization Analysis" to determine the most optimal Roth conversion strategy for my situation.

Any recommendations? I'm 56 and plan to retire next year. Is it too late to execute Roth conversions on my Tradtional 401K funds?
I created my own computer program, unsuitable for use by others (and becoming unsuitable for older me!). Optimization is a tricky thing to program and to run, and taxes (and future taxes) are not far behind. Which is why there aren't any great reasonably priced calculators available. However, I have found, at least for me, that past a certain basic level of complexity I might be optimizing for an extra $100 per year in spending. OK as a hobby, but not worth the time for most people. Follow the advice on the forum that applies to you and you will capture most of the benefits.

That said, I optimize my tIRA/401k withdrawals for each year in order to achieve my best inflation-adjusted yearly spending while leaving a constant final value in the portfolio. Everything else is calculated from those withdrawal numbers. I often see the optimized withdrawals are setting my income exactly at the top of a tax bracket, sometimes even a state tax bracket, or other tax feature like the start of the investment tax. So a spreadsheet that does all the calculations and gives you a final yearly spending amount could be used with manually entered tIRA numbers guided by various tax inflection points. Not too many numbers to try, and I think it would give you 99% of the conversion benefit.

Just like anything in retirement finances there are so many assumptions being made just to get one output number that most fine tuning will be buried in the noise. Get the basics right and you'll be fine.
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Old 08-05-2022, 03:04 PM   #25
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What I have done is a projection model of all of our sources of retirement income from now until we are 90. So it includes interest on taxable account money, my small fixed pension, and SS. It also includes a cell for Roth conversions each year and for RMDs once I'm 73. And most importantly, it includes projected standard deductions, taxable income and income taxes based on today's brackets and rates. All values are adjusted for inflation and investment balances like IRAs are adjusted for growth and withdrawals.

With no Roth conversions, we would pay no taxes until I start RMDs but some standard deductions would go unutilized each year and once I start RMDs the effective tax rate on the RMDs would be ~25-27%. So if I do nothing then I'll pay 25-27% of the RMDs in tax.

With Roth conversions to the top of the 12% tax bracket we pay about 11.5% of the convertsion amount in tax now and the effective tax rate on RMDs one they start is ~17%.

I can also look at the total paid in tax from now to age 90... with conversions is $258k and without any future conversions is $326k... not life changing but worth a little effort.
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Old 08-05-2022, 04:01 PM   #26
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What I have done is a projection model of all of our sources of retirement income from now until we are 90. So it includes interest on taxable account money, my small fixed pension, and SS. It also includes a cell for Roth conversions each year and for RMDs once I'm 73. And most importantly, it includes projected standard deductions, taxable income and income taxes based on today's brackets and rates. All values are adjusted for inflation and investment balances like IRAs are adjusted for growth and withdrawals.

With no Roth conversions, we would pay no taxes until I start RMDs but some standard deductions would go unutilized each year and once I start RMDs the effective tax rate on the RMDs would be ~25-27%. So if I do nothing then I'll pay 25-27% of the RMDs in tax.

With Roth conversions to the top of the 12% tax bracket we pay about 11.5% of the convertsion amount in tax now and the effective tax rate on RMDs one they start is ~17%.

I can also look at the total paid in tax from now to age 90... with conversions is $258k and without any future conversions is $326k... not life changing but worth a little effort.
Thanks for weighing in pb4uski. Is your projection model a spreadsheet that can be easily created? Please advise how I would start putting together this projection model?
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Old 08-05-2022, 04:32 PM   #27
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...a spreadsheet that can be easily created? Please advise how I would start putting together this projection model?
If it is a spreadsheet you seek, have you looked at either/both of the ones mentioned in the Using a spreadsheet section of the Roth IRA conversion wiki in Bogleheads?
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Old 08-05-2022, 05:09 PM   #28
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Thanks for weighing in pb4uski. Is your projection model a spreadsheet that can be easily created? Please advise how I would start putting together this projection model?
I guess that "easily" is subjective and it developed over many years with things periodically added, but here are the basic columns:

Year
Age
Int
Div
Pension
tIRA withdrawals
SS – DW
SS – lf
AGI
Std Dedn
TI Subtotal
IRMAA limit
Roth conv
RMD factor
RMD
TI
Ordinary Income
Pref income
Effective federal tax rate
10% bracket
12% bracket
22% bracket
Ordinary tax
Div/CG Tax
Federal tax

While we don't have dividends anymore I left it in since dividends are taxed at preferential rates compared to interest. While I have a column for tIRA withdrawals we don't have any... all Roth conversions and we live off of taxable account savings. While I don't really use the IRMAA tier 1 limit I include it for informatonal purposes. The tax brackets are current for the current year and then increased for inflation thereafter. For simplicity, I assume that 85% of SS is taxable after considering Roth conversions and RMDs.

I have other columns to the right that start with my current taxable, tax-deferred and tax-free balances and they grow at an assumed investment rate and are reduced for spending (net of pension, SS, etc), increased and reduced for Roth Conversions, reduced and increased for RMDs, etc. The taxable account projection drives the interest included in income.

It has become a lot simpler since we no longer have qualified income so I don need to do two tax calculations.
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Old 08-05-2022, 06:23 PM   #29
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I do not recommend folks try to build a model suitable for Roth Conversion planning on their own unless they just love the tax code and programming and have lots of free time for testing and debugging.

I've made the same point in other threads and posts, but I use Pralana Gold extensively, it's a paid Excel sheet with a modest cost of $99 1st year, $49 renewal. It has huge flexibility and power, much more for instance than the Boglehead Retiree Portfolio Model. I don't mean to knock RPM, it is excellent for freeware, is far better than most individual's attempts and can be extended with your own logic if you really want to do so. But I find RPM quirky to set up, it takes a long time to understand what it is and isn't doing and it's completely manual on setting up a Roth conversion plan.

It will take some time to set up a model in any good tool, with more time required for more complex plans, but making no plan or a bad plan is potentially very expensive. If folks can't do the setup themselves, a one-time-fee advisor could be hired. The advisor may be worth it if folks are not familiar with the issues and a pro may have ideas that wouldn't have occurred to you - just be certain it's a one time fee and not an asset-under-management advisor as those will take both your wallet and your pants in the long run.

People used to be able to get quick (though often misunderstood) plans from I-orp, but I read over on Bogleheads that the author's health and age preclude him from continuing that effort.
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Old 08-05-2022, 06:54 PM   #30
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If it is a spreadsheet you seek, have you looked at either/both of the ones mentioned in the Using a spreadsheet section of the Roth IRA conversion wiki in Bogleheads?
I downloaded the Retiree Portfolio Model spreadsheet. I'm getting some errors as I enter my data. Need to read the instructions again.
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Old 08-06-2022, 09:33 AM   #31
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I use New Retirement also but try to convert only up to the top of the 12% bracket (MFJ) by spreading the conversions out over several years

So hopefully all our rollover traditional IRAs should be converted to Roth by our early 60s.

Spouse still works so as much as possible of that income goes into her tax-deferred plan...once she stops we'll consider converting that to Roth as well...might just keep it for QCDs instead after age 70.5.
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Old 08-06-2022, 09:55 AM   #32
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Unfortunately for my wife and I, the 2 pensions and 2 SS alone will put us in the 22% marginal tax bracket. I'm delaying my SS to 70 and my wife is taking Her's at 62. Maybe that's a good problem to have.
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Old 08-06-2022, 10:27 AM   #33
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Originally Posted by pb4uski View Post
I guess that "easily" is subjective and it developed over many years with things periodically added, but here are the basic columns:

Year
Age
Int
Div
Pension
tIRA withdrawals
SS DW
SS lf
AGI
Std Dedn
TI Subtotal
IRMAA limit
Roth conv
RMD factor
RMD
TI
Ordinary Income
Pref income
Effective federal tax rate
10% bracket
12% bracket
22% bracket
Ordinary tax
Div/CG Tax
Federal tax

While we don't have dividends anymore I left it in since dividends are taxed at preferential rates compared to interest. While I have a column for tIRA withdrawals we don't have any... all Roth conversions and we live off of taxable account savings. While I don't really use the IRMAA tier 1 limit I include it for informatonal purposes. The tax brackets are current for the current year and then increased for inflation thereafter. For simplicity, I assume that 85% of SS is taxable after considering Roth conversions and RMDs.

I have other columns to the right that start with my current taxable, tax-deferred and tax-free balances and they grow at an assumed investment rate and are reduced for spending (net of pension, SS, etc), increased and reduced for Roth Conversions, reduced and increased for RMDs, etc. The taxable account projection drives the interest included in income.

It has become a lot simpler since we no longer have qualified income so I don need to do two tax calculations.
What are you estimating for the Standard Deduction increase each year? I'm working on my own spreadsheet and including tax information in it. The irscalculators.com calculator is great in estimating taxes at the various marginal tax brackets and the effective tax rate.
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Old 08-06-2022, 11:03 AM   #34
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What are you estimating for the Standard Deduction increase each year? I'm working on my own spreadsheet and including tax information in it. The irscalculators.com calculator is great in estimating taxes at the various marginal tax brackets and the effective tax rate.
As Exchme said, it's a difficult/impossible job to build a spreadsheet that accurately projects income taxes even five years into the future. This because certain things are indexed to inflation and we really don't know what that will be year to year.

That's why I simply try to project my AGI year by year and even that is challenging: I had been projecting SS to increase 3% per year and next January we'll be getting what? A nine percent increase?

Fortunately, you can take the December approach to doing Roth conversions. By early December your actual AGI for the year will be computable to within a few hundred dollars. So you can do additional Roth conversions to top up your AGI for the year, based on tax bracket, income levelizing, IRMAA thresholds, or whatever your scheme is...
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Old 08-06-2022, 11:42 AM   #35
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Originally Posted by Animorph View Post
Just like anything in retirement finances there are so many assumptions being made just to get one output number that most fine tuning will be buried in the noise. Get the basics right and you'll be fine.
I'm starting to realize as I look at my own model over the years that rate of investment return and annual adjustments of IRMAA and my date of death are significant uncertainties that probably swamp my 4 significant digit estimate of my tax rate at age 82.

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As Animorph says, you want to avoid high tax brackets, the way to do that is to keep your tax bracket level through the years with Roth Conversions, with the caveat that if you need ACA premium credits, those are top priority.
The value of ACA subsidies varies. I calculate them in terms of a marginal rate on conversions (which can be twice as high as the nominal ACA curve rates, because of the way the math works). In my case last year they were equivalent to about an 18% marginal rate.

I do a similar thing with FAFSA. In my case with two in college, FAFSA concerns are equivalent to about a 17% marginal rate.

Quote:
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What are you estimating for the Standard Deduction increase each year? I'm working on my own spreadsheet and including tax information in it. The irscalculators.com calculator is great in estimating taxes at the various marginal tax brackets and the effective tax rate.
I'm not the one you asked, but I'd almost bet that @pb4uski increases the standard deduction by the CPI, which is what I think the law requires, usually rounded to an even number. Most of those sorts of limits adjust by the CPI, although some (IRMAA, AOTC, ACA) do not.
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Old 08-06-2022, 11:47 AM   #36
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What are you estimating for the Standard Deduction increase each year? I'm working on my own spreadsheet and including tax information in it. The irscalculators.com calculator is great in estimating taxes at the various marginal tax brackets and the effective tax rate.
Yes, I assume that the standard deduction and tax brackets increase for inflation.
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Old 08-06-2022, 01:28 PM   #37
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Yes, I assume that the standard deduction and tax brackets increase for inflation.
Just trying to determine if I will ever fall in the 12% marginal tax rate based on my projection of the 2% increase in standard deduction and the top of the 12% marginal tax bracket each year.

Standard Deduction and 12% marginal tax bracket increase Projection:


Year Standard Deduction Top of 12% Marginal Tax Bracket
2023 $26,300 $85,221
2024 $26,826 $86,925
2025 $27,363 $88,664
2026 $27,910 $90,437
2027 $28,468 $92,246
2028 $29,037 $94,091
2029 $29,618 $95,973
2030 $30,210 $97,892
2031 $30,815 $99,850
2032 $31,431 $101,847
2033 $32,060 $103,884
2034 $32,701 $105,962
2035 $33,355 $108,081
2036 $34,022 $110,242
2037 $34,702 $112,447
2038 $35,396 $114,696
2039 $36,104 $116,990
2040 $36,826 $119,330
2041 $37,563 $121,717
2042 $38,314 $124,151
2043 $39,080 $126,634
2044 $39,862 $129,167
2045 $40,659 $131,750
2046 $41,472 $134,385
2047 $42,302 $137,073
2048 $43,148 $139,814
2049 $44,011 $142,610
2050 $44,891 $145,463
2051 $45,789 $148,372
2052 $46,705 $151,339
2053 $47,639 $154,366
2054 $48,592 $157,453
2055 $49,563 $160,602
2056 $50,555 $163,814
2057 $51,566 $167,091
2058 $52,597 $170,433
2059 $53,649 $173,841
2060 $54,722 $177,318
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Old 08-06-2022, 03:37 PM   #38
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Don't forget the reversion to the 15% bracket (and others) in 2026, I think...
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Traditional 401K Roth Conversions - How to determine the Benefits?
Old 08-06-2022, 03:53 PM   #39
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Traditional 401K Roth Conversions - How to determine the Benefits?

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Don't forget the reversion to the 15% bracket (and others) in 2026, I think...

Yes, the brackets revert back in 2026. We use that reversion in our calculations for Roth conversions.

I recently saw a good interview of Michael Kitces where he in part was discussing Roth conversions. I was happy to hear him confirm our strategy of large conversions before RMDs even if pushing us higher into IRMAA brackets. The upcoming change in tax brackets is a big motivator for us.

https://youtu.be/tFbLyVySJMc
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Old 08-06-2022, 04:02 PM   #40
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Yes, the brackets revert back in 2026. We use that reversion in our calculations for Roth conversions.

I recently saw a good interview of Michael Kitces where he in part was discussing Roth conversions. I was happy to hear him confirm our strategy of large conversions before RMDs even if pushing us higher into IRMAA brackets. The upcoming change in tax brackets is a big motivator for us.

https://youtu.be/tFbLyVySJMc
Ok. Let me try to accommodate that in my spreadsheet. I am trying to figure out when I need to start Roth conversions in retirement. Don't realize our tax system is so complicated.
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