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Old 11-13-2023, 02:36 PM   #2461
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Over the past 3 years more than $60T has been created in new household wealth, and total household wealth is now over $150T. Certainly, fiscal policy and deficit spending contributed strongly to this increase. There can be no doubt the wealth and ability to pay our public debt exists. If the US defaults it will be a choice made, in part, by beneficiaries of the fiscal spending that causes the deficit.

NY Fed Survey of Consumer Finances here
St. Louis Fed Households net worth here
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When buying a Treasury through Schwab, how long do you get to free up the money from MM. Or does the cash have to be available before placing an order?

Assuming all one's money is in a Schwab MM fund.
You can sell 100k (or whatever amount you like)of SWVXX to cash and place treasury order the same day.
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Old 11-13-2023, 03:26 PM   #2462
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ShokWaveRider View Post
When buying a Treasury through Schwab, how long do you get to free up the money from MM. Or does the cash have to be available before placing an order?

Assuming all one's money is in a Schwab MM fund.
May not apply but for Vanguard funds must be available in your sweep account at the time you place the trade. And Vanguard requires you have the face value amount unless you have other assets in the account that could be liquidated for settlement, e.g. if you buy $10K in Treasury bills, you must have $10K in the MM sweep account even though the purchase price would probably be about $9.5K for a 52 week T-bill…
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Old 11-17-2023, 06:15 PM   #2463
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I am retired and looking closely at the fixed income side, so wondering if anyone is interested in the 10 year TIP offering at Vanguard?

10 Year US Treasury Inflation Index REOPEN 2.159 07/15/2033
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Old 11-18-2023, 04:49 PM   #2464
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I am retired and looking closely at the fixed income side, so wondering if anyone is interested in the 10 year TIP offering at Vanguard?

10 Year US Treasury Inflation Index REOPEN 2.159 07/15/2033
The 10-year TIPS real rate was 2.166% as of Friday. The year to date high real yield was about 2.52% (10/25/23). So the real return has been moving down along with nominal rates.

Also, be aware that the TIPS inflation component (TIPS principal balance) will actually be slightly REDUCED in December. See: chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://www.treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/tipscpi/2023/CPI_20231114.pdf and TipsWatch explainer: https://tipswatch.com/2023/11/14/oct...-for-the-year/ (In reality, essentially flat.)

I own the original issue, but likely will not be particpating in the (re) auction. I did buy some (more) on 10/08 when the real return was around 2.47%.
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Old 11-18-2023, 06:59 PM   #2465
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Originally Posted by copyright1997reloaded View Post
The 10-year TIPS real rate was 2.166% as of Friday. The year to date high real yield was about 2.52% (10/25/23). So the real return has been moving down along with nominal rates.

Also, be aware that the TIPS inflation component (TIPS principal balance) will actually be slightly REDUCED in December. See: chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://www.treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/tipscpi/2023/CPI_20231114.pdf and TipsWatch explainer: https://tipswatch.com/2023/11/14/oct...-for-the-year/ (In reality, essentially flat.)

I own the original issue, but likely will not be particpating in the (re) auction. I did buy some (more) on 10/08 when the real return was around 2.47%.
Thanks for the response.
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Old 11-18-2023, 10:44 PM   #2466
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Deflation: WMT

Walmart is preparing for deflation.

This is happening quickly.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/16/deflation-holiday-walmart-ceo.html
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Old 11-18-2023, 10:59 PM   #2467
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Based on the action in the bond market over the last two weeks, it’s not really a surprise.
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Old 11-21-2023, 07:38 AM   #2468
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Originally Posted by copyright1997reloaded View Post
The 10-year TIPS real rate was 2.166% as of Friday. The year to date high real yield was about 2.52% (10/25/23). So the real return has been moving down along with nominal rates.

Also, be aware that the TIPS inflation component (TIPS principal balance) will actually be slightly REDUCED in December. See: chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://www.treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/tipscpi/2023/CPI_20231114.pdf and TipsWatch explainer: https://tipswatch.com/2023/11/14/oct...-for-the-year/ (In reality, essentially flat.)

I own the original issue, but likely will not be particpating in the (re) auction. I did buy some (more) on 10/08 when the real return was around 2.47%.
Update (11/21/23 @ 8:37AM): Current 10-year tips (maturity 2033-07-15) is trading at 2.137% real return. At Fidelity, auction participation cutoff is (I believe) 9:30AM.
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Old 11-21-2023, 07:42 AM   #2469
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Some discussion here on todays TIPS auction: https://tipswatch.com/

To long for me, but looks like it is still a good deal historically.
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Old 11-21-2023, 07:45 AM   #2470
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Some discussion here on todays TIPS auction: https://tipswatch.com/

To long for me, but looks like it is still a good deal historically.
If I were to try TIPS, five years would be my max.
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Old 11-21-2023, 08:01 AM   #2471
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If I were to try TIPS, five years would be my max.
Current real yield on the (a bit under) 5-year TIPS, CUSIP 91282CGW5, Maturity 4/15/2028 is aproximately 2.311%.
(ETA: 1.25% coupon on this, so selling at about 95.585 plus accrued inflation factor)
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Old 11-21-2023, 08:09 AM   #2472
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If I were to try TIPS, five years would be my max.
That’s what I did. Bought a 5 year TIPS last December, and another this past October. That will be it for me for a long while.

I pretty much bought these because the real yields were so much better compared to history, especially recent history. The recent issue even had a 2.375% coupon. TIPS are complex instruments to evaluate.
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Old 11-21-2023, 08:13 AM   #2473
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That’s what I did. Bought a 5 year TIPS last December, and another this past October. That will be it for me for a long while.

I pretty much bought these because the real yields were so much better compared to history, especially recent history. The recent issue even had a 2.375% coupon. TIPS are complex instruments to evaluate.
They certainly are for me
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Old 11-21-2023, 01:36 PM   #2474
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I'm happy to buy 10 years TIPS and hold to maturity. But I'm using them for guaranteed income as a hedge against SORR.

If I was investing for general FI, I'd probably stick with treasuries and would keep the durations short.
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Old 11-21-2023, 02:01 PM   #2475
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The 10 year TIPS came in at 2.18% for the fixed rate. It sold at a discount, about 94.03.

More info —->. https://www.early-retirement.org/for...ml#post3016060
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Old 11-21-2023, 02:41 PM   #2476
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I’m waiting for the January auction. I hope that rates hold until then!
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Old 11-21-2023, 04:17 PM   #2477
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Rates continuing to drop. Auctions no longer an issue as market eating the supply and still dropping.

20 year auction was "strong".
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Old 11-27-2023, 12:46 PM   #2478
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The month-long downward trend in short-term Treasury yields (temporarily?) stopped this week. The 13-week came in 0.015% higher than last week at 5.441% while the 26-week came in 0.011% higher at 5.472%.
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Old 11-28-2023, 03:44 AM   #2479
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But the 2-yr and 5-yr notes drooped from the previous auctions.
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Old 11-28-2023, 07:50 AM   #2480
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But the 2-yr and 5-yr notes drooped from the previous auctions.
Well, given that those auctions happen only once a month that was to be expected, wasn't it?
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