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Treasury Bills, Notes, and Bonds Discussion 2024+
Old 01-01-2024, 10:58 AM   #1
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Treasury Bills, Notes, and Bonds Discussion 2024+

New year, so time for a new thread! The previous one is over 2500 posts.

You can see the upcoming auctions and most recent treasury auction results here: https://www.treasurydirect.gov/auctions/upcoming/

Link back to the prior thread: https://www.early-retirement.org/for...on-115186.html

That previous thread has a lot of tutorial information in the first several pages so it’s very useful as a reference. Lots of our posters came up the learning curve on buying treasuries since jazz4cash started that thread on 8-31-22.
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Old 01-01-2024, 11:06 AM   #2
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Where treasuries ended the year:

Last week's T-bill Auction results:

BillsCMBCUSIPIssue DateHigh RateInvestment RatePrice per $100
4-WeekNo912797JB401/02/20245.325%5.436%$99.585833
8-WeekNo912797JF501/02/20245.285%5.418%$99.177889
13-WeekNo912797GY712/28/20235.260%5.420%$98.670389
17-WeekNo912797JQ101/02/20245.210%5.390%$98.277806
26-WeekNo912796Y4512/28/20235.080%5.301%$97.431778
52-WeekNo912796ZV412/28/20234.595%4.841%$95.353944

Longer durations have been dropping. 13-week had been the pivot for a few weeks now and hasn't dropped for 3 weeks, but looks like 4-week crossed over.


Treasury Notes Auction December Results:

NotesReopeningCUSIPIssue DateHigh YieldInterest RatePrice per $100
2-YearNo91282CJS101/02/20244.314%4.250%$99.878444
3-YearNo91282CJP712/15/20234.490%4.375%$99.680564
5-YearNo91282CJR301/02/20243.801%3.750%$99.769595
7-YearNo91282CJQ501/02/20243.859%3.750%$99.336988
10-YearYes91282CJJ112/15/20234.296%4.500%$101.626935

Also TIPS and Bonds traded in the last month. You can go to the Treasury Direct auction results page to see where those are.
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Old 01-02-2024, 02:03 PM   #3
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To start off the New Year, the 26-week T-bill dropped below 5.3% at auction this morning: 5.264%. The 13-week T-bill is still hanging in there, 5.404%.
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Old 01-04-2024, 01:03 PM   #4
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This weeks T-bill auction results:

BillsCMBCUSIPIssue DateHigh RateInvestment RatePrice per $100
4-WeekNo912797JC201/09/20245.290%5.400%$99.588556
8-WeekNo912797JG301/09/20245.285%5.418%$99.177889
13-WeekNo912797GZ401/04/20245.245%5.404%$98.674181
17-WeekNo912797JV001/09/20245.200%5.379%$98.281111
26-WeekNo912796Y5201/04/20245.045%5.264%$97.435458

Still all above 5%, but 26 week has been steadily dropping.
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Old 01-04-2024, 01:44 PM   #5
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It's probably my level of ignorance about gummint issues, but I don't feel inclined to buy such instruments. The volatility alone is an issue to me right now. I've become more of a mutual fund kind of investor. So, for gummint bonds, there's a "fund" for that. I do have a small amount in such a Vanguard fund, but that's about the level of my interest at this point. I'm probably missing out, but that's where I stand at this time. As always, YMMV.
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Old 01-04-2024, 02:38 PM   #6
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It's probably my level of ignorance about gummint issues, but I don't feel inclined to buy such instruments. The volatility alone is an issue to me right now. I've become more of a mutual fund kind of investor. So, for gummint bonds, there's a "fund" for that. I do have a small amount in such a Vanguard fund, but that's about the level of my interest at this point. I'm probably missing out, but that's where I stand at this time. As always, YMMV.
My father used to go somewhere in San Francisco to attend the auction and buy T bills. Thinking early 60's.

Bills are short term, volatility is relatively low. Just hold until they mature and get your money back with interest.
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Old 01-04-2024, 02:54 PM   #7
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To start off the New Year, the 26-week T-bill dropped below 5.3% at auction this morning: 5.264%.
Yes my beloved 26-week starts off 2024 with the worst rates of the S-T (less than 1 year) bills. Of course I bought a bunch in that auction. Oh well - Happy 2024!
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Old 01-04-2024, 03:40 PM   #8
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Bills are short term, volatility is relatively low. Just hold until they mature and get your money back with interest.
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Old 01-04-2024, 03:41 PM   #9
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Yes my beloved 26-week starts off 2024 with the worst rates of the S-T (less than 1 year) bills. Of course I bought a bunch in that auction. Oh well - Happy 2024!
I figure as long as they are above 5% great!
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Old 01-04-2024, 04:43 PM   #10
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It would be beneficial to all if we keep this discussion focused on (and limited to) interest rates, auctions, buying and selling Treasuries and related topics.
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Old 01-04-2024, 04:57 PM   #11
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^^^^^^^ Sorry. I deleted my post.
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Old 01-04-2024, 06:30 PM   #12
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I bought my first TIPs today, along with some investment grade corporates.

Between some recent maturities and call proceeds I had a lot of dry powder to deploy to 2027 to 2030 maturities.
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Old 01-05-2024, 02:58 AM   #13
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Yes my beloved 26-week starts off 2024 with the worst rates of the S-T (less than 1 year) bills. Of course I bought a bunch in that auction. Oh well - Happy 2024!
Same here had some cash/VMFXX build up in December. Thinking if 26-week paid 5.3% same as VMFXX paid without state tax I would be ahead. Close but no bananas.
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Old 01-05-2024, 05:07 AM   #14
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It's probably my level of ignorance about gummint issues, but I don't feel inclined to buy such instruments. The volatility alone is an issue to me right now. I've become more of a mutual fund kind of investor. So, for gummint bonds, there's a "fund" for that. I do have a small amount in such a Vanguard fund, but that's about the level of my interest at this point. I'm probably missing out, but that's where I stand at this time. As always, YMMV.
Sure, you can use mutual funds. But don't ignore direct ownership. It is easy. It really is.

The main difference is you control the redemption process. This is important because with a mutual fund, the NAV fluctuates with the market value of the bonds. You are along for the ride with no control on NAV valuation, so when the time comes to redeem, you may realize losses that you could alternatively wait out on a bond held directly.
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Old 01-05-2024, 07:24 AM   #15
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Sure, you can use mutual funds. But don't ignore direct ownership. It is easy. It really is.

The main difference is you control the redemption process. This is important because with a mutual fund, the NAV fluctuates with the market value of the bonds. You are along for the ride with no control on NAV valuation, so when the time comes to redeem, you may realize losses that you could alternatively wait out on a bond held directly.
+1 To me, that is the main advantage of individual bonds in a rolling bond ladder over a mutual fund. If I have an upcoming need for cash, I can simply not reinvest some maturity proceeds or sell a bond near to maturity for close to its par value. If I'm in a bond fund and I need cash, then when I sell at NAV I am effectively selling a little piece of every bond in the fund's portfolio, some of which may be underwater due to change in interest rates.
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Old 01-05-2024, 07:48 AM   #16
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I figure as long as they are above 5% great!
+1

I was telling a friend of mine the same thing last week. Face it. We got spoiled. Let's put things into perspective. 1 year ago the 26 week auction yielded 4.812% and we were thrilled to get it. The auction this week yielded 5.264% and everyone gets depressed. Chill, people. Things are still good, just not as good as a few months ago.
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Old 01-05-2024, 08:31 AM   #17
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Yeah, its becoming harder to find 4-7 year paper yielding more than 5%, which is sort of my target but I may have to rethink that and shave it down to 4.5%.

I did buy a couple BBB+ rated corporate bonds maturing in 2027 in the 5.5% range yesterday.
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Old 01-05-2024, 09:26 AM   #18
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Yes my beloved 26-week starts off 2024 with the worst rates of the S-T (less than 1 year) bills. Of course I bought a bunch in that auction. Oh well - Happy 2024!
I just had my first replacement for a CD spot on my ladder that yields less than the CD that recently matured..

For now, I am sticking to CDs and Treasuries, all guaranteed by Uncle Sam. I have enough risk in the common stock part of my investments. No need to add more risk by purchasing corporate bonds.
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Old 01-05-2024, 09:33 AM   #19
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+1 To me, that is the main advantage of individual bonds in a rolling bond ladder over a mutual fund. If I have an upcoming need for cash, I can simply not reinvest some maturity proceeds or sell a bond near to maturity for close to its par value. If I'm in a bond fund and I need cash, then when I sell at NAV I am effectively selling a little piece of every bond in the fund's portfolio, some of which may be underwater due to change in interest rates.
Exactly! Volatility favors individual issues vs. funds. Funds offer ease of purchase and diversification. I am sticking with individual issues for now.
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Old 01-05-2024, 09:38 AM   #20
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+1

I was telling a friend of mine the same thing last week. Face it. We got spoiled. Let's put things into perspective. 1 year ago the 26 week auction yielded 4.812% and we were thrilled to get it. The auction this week yielded 5.264% and everyone gets depressed. Chill, people. Things are still good, just not as good as a few months ago.
I know! How did we get spoiled so easily! Actually, I am still savoring these rates since I am comparing them to a year or more ago….not a month ago. I am committed to a lumpy ladder and taking whatever the market gives.
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