Trouble Ahead???

[Steve O]

Is anyone else getting the feeling were in for some hard times ahead

Im very nervous about the stock market these days

I've sold off on the recent rallies and and I sold a bunch more last week despite the down market...

Maybe Im crazy but I think if we see a sharp plunge many individual investors are ready to bail and things could get really ugly really fast

A lot of people aren't gonna wanna lose what they got back in the recent unexplainable rally

I keep hearing about low volume in the market and it just kept going up since the lows...

I believe it's being manipulated by the Fed just like all the other shady things they have going on...

 

[Zathras]

Perhaps yes, perhaps no.
Makes no difference to me.
If you got completely I hope your 'timing' is right.
There was one poster that was absolutely positive the S&P would be down to 740 by the end of (last) October, this was after they were convinced of a correction in June and then July.
If your allocation is sound, a downturn (especially if you are still accumilating) is nothing more than a rebalancing opportunity (or buying opportunity).

 

[Gone4Good]

I don't find the recent sell off all that worrisome. Mostly because it comes against the backdrop of companies reporting better than expected earnings. The market has been straight up for nine months, were over due for some down days. But another rout in the market needs to be driven by fundamental weakness. Right now we're not seeing it.

It could be that all the improving economic signs are just an illusion driven by federal spending and zero percent interest rates. The bears certainly believe so. But as the months roll on, it looks more and more like actual stabilization and a classic early stage recovery.

 

[Bestwifeever]

Where did you park your $$, Steve O? How will you decide when to get back in?

 

[easysurfer]

Not nervous now. I'm glad I re-balanced earlier in the year.

 

[Maurice]

I welcome it with open arms. I'd love another great buying oppurtunity. Lets get the S&P down to 600!

(of course i'd feel differently if i were 25 years older...)

 

[Steve O]

I sold down from 58 to 38 % and Im still just slightly up for the year...

I made good $$$ last year and Id rather keep some of it than put it at risk...

The bearish arguments are starting to look a lot more convincing to me than the Bulls claims that things are gonna get better...

Next week will be interesting...

 

[Steve O]

Im 41 and FIRED, I have a long way to go...

I put some in Vanguards intermediate corporate bond ETF.

Im gonna put some more into long treasuries.

And Im gonna keep a big pile of cash just sitting there waiting for a while to see how this all unfolds...

 

[bbbamI]

And Im gonna keep a big pile of cash just sitting there waiting for a while to see how this all unfolds...

I've got a big pile of cash too and haven't done anything with it. Just when I think, 'ah ha!', something makes me think 'uh oh'.

 

[Steve O]

I hope Im wrong, I really don't wanna see things get really bad but I can't afford to be too optimistic these days...

I was 38% going into last year I left it alone until October and bought in and a little more in December...

I had high hope for this year but the way things are going lately is getting me really nervous

It's hard to voice my concerns here without it getting political so I will leave it at that

 

[Steve O]

If we do see 666 on the S&P again will the President say "Now would be a really good time to buy stocks" on national TV like last year

 

[Steve O]

And who knows what could happen if the Saints win the Superbowl

 

[Zathras]

Politically, I believe the stock market does best when you have gridlock in our government. So with the loss of 60 votes in the senate, things should be looking up

 

[Bestwifeever]

And who knows what could happen if the Saints win the Superbowl

I'm watching the last six minutes of Saints vs. Vikings--now this is a great football game!!!

 

[plex]

Personally, I think this year things will be fine, there aren't any fundamental signs showing a new a downturn. Who knows after that. It is harder now making short term predictions when the market seems to be at the beginning of a new cycle (recession downturns have a pretty limited time range, it is extremely rare for them to exceed 24 months, and it was getting close to that).

Fuzzy pie-in-the-sky gut analysis coupled with past performance numbers that are never fully reliable aside, it is best to have a general idea of what sort of allocation you want in the long term. Even if you want to set aside cash because you think there will be a W-type recession, it isn't a good idea to do something drastic like going for 80/20 to 20/80 on just a gut feeling. I would recommend to not go much more into cash than you already have, unless that was already part of your long term plan.

 

[Steve O]

My long term plan is built on a 35-38% stock allocation with some TIPS and diversified bonds...

I just got greedy because bonds weren't going anywhere and stocks looked better...

I don't see how were gonna replace all the good jobs that have been lost recently

Mark to fantasy accounting by the banks...

Crooked Fed and the PPT team that's been on vacation lately...

China and the fact that we really have no idea what their real situation is...

Total waste of $$$ and debt by our government...

It all seems like a huge Ponzi scheme that is gonna end soon

Go SAINTS!!!

 

[LARS]

Is anyone else getting the feeling were in for some hard times ahead

To quote (paraphrase) the late, great Jerry Garcia: "Trouble ahead, trouble behind, and you know that notion HAS NEVER LEFT my mind...”

All that has been done by the FED/Government is stabilize the situation. The effects of a collapsing credit bubble, and the requisite deleveraging (which is what is going on) cannot, and has not, been solved in one year. The game being played by the developed world’s Central Banks is all about extend and pretend and hope that growth will re-materialize. It's either that or take the bitter financial medicine quickly... not an approach that wins friends (and maybe starts riots).

Based upon what I see, I think it’s highly unlikely we’ll see any substantive self-sustaining growth once the stimulus of last year works its way through the system.

Invest accordingly…

 

[Steve O]

Deflation and a very bearish out look would say go LONG treasuries...

BUT the who know what the crooked FED has in mind and the Saints are going to the Superbowl

 

[LARS]

Deflation and a very bearish out look would say go LONG treasuries...

BUT the who know what the crooked FED has in mind and the Saints are going to the Superbowl

Don't underestimate the FED's ability to give us the worst of all worlds: some new variation of STAGFLATION.

Commodities (think oil) go through the roof and the Fed keeps rates low still fighting the no growth/deflation mess we are experiencing. The wild card in that scenario is what do the bond market vigilantes do (and/or is the $ a safe haven)... Only the answers to that will tell you whether to go long bonds or not.

 

[Steve O]

I agree, the FED meeting and Bernanke this week is gonna be interesting...

Throw in China, Europe and Japan and it really makes things uncertain

Watch for regulators to crack down on speculation in commodities...

Cash feels really nice right now, I almost wanna take a bunch out in small bills and roll around in it

 

[traineeinvestor]

The collective wisdom gained from a very unscientific 30 minute survey of a variety of media sources and plogs is that there is no consensus on which way stock markeks, interest rates, currencies, CPI or anything else will go. There isn't even a consensus on whether markets will fluctuate.

I stopped adding to my portfolio in early December and have been content to build up cash since then. Experience has taught me that chasing bull markets is a usually a bad idea and that value will usually come to those who wait.

I'll refrain from commenting on the "dig a deeper hole" approach to managing the economy which is been taken in a number of countries.

 

[easysurfer]

I hope Im wrong, I really don't wanna see things get really bad but I can't afford to be too optimistic these days...

I was 38% going into last year I left it alone until October and bought in and a little more in December...

I had high hope for this year but the way things are going lately is getting me really nervous

It's hard to voice my concerns here without it getting political so I will leave it at that

I'd much rather depend on my own asset allocation settings than trying to read which way the political climate impacts the market.

 

[Steve O]

This is almost as hard as determining what my GF's mood will be based on where she is on her monthly cycle

 

[Steve O]

I think were past the point of a political solution

 

[ikubak]

I too believe the market is in for some troubling times ahead. I have felt this way for over 10 years. On many occasions I have been right. It was only in the internet hype years that I was sure the market was going higher. I was right for a while on that one too. Now I have concluded that I don't know what the market is going to do. Do I think stocks are overpriced? Yes. I thought that in July and September too. The only thing I seem to be able to do is select an appropriate allocation and stay the course.