TSP Estimation

[behindthedimes]

I am trying to create a spreadsheet to examine my thrift savings plan trajectory for retirement (12/31/2044) planning. I can estimate my salary growth and contributions as a percentage of my income. How would I accommodate contributions plus yearly growth to update an estimated account balance from year to year?

 

[teej1985]

You can't predict with any sort of accuracy 23 years out.

 

[behindthedimes]

You can't predict with any sort of accuracy 23 years out.

I know that but I was just trying to extreme ballparks. Things were a little slow and I was just screwing around. Not looking to make investment decisions. Just trying the figure out even for two years from now how to incorporate contributions in with expected portfolio growth.

 

[pb4uski]

Assuming that the contributions are made throughout the year, the ending balance for each year would be beginning balance + contributions + [(beginning balance + contributions/2)* rate].

Rate is the rate of return and you could select that based on historical rates of return for your asset mix and then look at higher and lower rates of return.

 

[MikeWillRetire]

Rather than using a spreadsheet, you could model your TSP using Firecalc. That would show you the possible range of ending balances in 2044.

 

[rothlev]

I am trying to create a spreadsheet to examine my thrift savings plan trajectory for retirement (12/31/2044) planning. I can estimate my salary growth and contributions as a percentage of my income. How would I accommodate contributions plus yearly growth to update an estimated account balance from year to year?

https://www.calculator.net/401k-calculator.html


there are any number of calculators that you can use to estimate with

 

[f35phixer]

dont worry about it!!!! Just let it grow at your AA, max out and when you hit 50, max out catch up !!! Its amazing where i'm at now after 23 years....

 

[zinger1457]

Are you maxing out your TSP contributions? If you are and plan to continue in the future then you don't need to factor in salary growth or percentage of income since the contribution limits have nothing to do with salary. Just start with current TSP balance on your spreadsheet, add in the current contribution limit, guesstimate how much the contribution limits might increase each year, maybe 2-3%, and use a reasonable rate of return (7%?). Excel has a FV (future value) function that would work for calculating the yearly balance based on the numbers above. The nice thing about spreadsheets is it's easy to make changes (rate of return) and see the impact.

 

[SnowballCamper]

Are you maxing out your TSP contributions? If you are and plan to continue in the future then you don't need to factor in salary growth or percentage of income since the contribution limits have nothing to do with salary. Just start with current TSP balance on your spreadsheet, add in the current contribution limit, guesstimate how much the contribution limits might increase each year, maybe 2-3%, and use a reasonable rate of return (7%?). Excel has a FV (future value) function that would work for calculating the yearly balance based on the numbers above. The nice thing about spreadsheets is it's easy to make changes (rate of return) and see the impact.

This. Work to max out the contributions. Pick your funds/asset allocation. Don't check your balance too often. When the market correction comes, rebalance.

In 20 years, you'll have millions.

 

[W2R]

Like others here I maxed out my TSP contributions every single year. I always recommend that to those who can do the same.

In retirement I chose to put it all in "G Fund", which is guaranteed not to decrease in share value so it's sort of like cash. I regard access to the G Fund as part of my retirement benefits and I get equal monthly payments from it.

 

[clobber]

For pay raises, you can look up the historical values. I calculate the average since 1975 to be 3.3% and over the last 10 years to be 1.3%. You will also need to take promotions into account.

As far as TSP is concerned, it is recommended to use specific $$ values and not a percentage of salary. To each their own.

Year Salary Raise
1975 5.0
1976 4.8
1977 7.0
1978 5.5
1979 7.0
1980 9.1
1981 4.8
1982 4.0
1983 0.0
1984 4.0
1985 3.5
1986 0.0
1987 3.0
1988 2.0
1989 4.1
1990 3.6
1991 4.1
1992 4.2
1993 3.7
1994 4.0
1995 2.6
1996 2.4
1997 3.0
1998 2.9
1999 3.6
2000 4.8
2001 3.7
2002 4.6
2003 4.1
2004 4.1
2005 3.5
2006 3.1
2007 2.2
2008 3.5
2009 3.9
2010 2.0
2011 0.0
2012 0.0
2013 0.0
2014 1.0
2015 1.0
2016 1.6
2017 2.1
2018 1.9
2019 1.9
2020 3.1
3.3

10yr 1.3