U.S. Will Escape Recession in 2008

[lazygood4nothinbum]

Quote:

Originally Posted by 2B The old joke is that economists have successfully predicted 8 of the last 3 recessions.... So far, I've made a lot more money with Bush-II than with Clinton-I.

love the economist thing, very funny.

i've never noticed any difference in my lifestyle during my working years that could be attributed to either party in office. i managed fine enough regardless of who ruled. so would political party while not working make that much of a difference?

i always need to (dis)qualify my comments on economy by saying that i have little idea of what is going on but i try to learn as i go.

perhaps someone can enlighten me. has the economy become so regulated by what seems to be a tug of war between the fed and the market and has the economy become so intertwined with internationalism and has the economy become so much larger because of world trade that it no longer plays quite by all the same rules as it has in the past and by which people are trying to predict its future?

[Retire Soon]

It seems that a majority of economists disagree with the UCLA Anderson Forecast and believe we're now in a recession according to a new WSJ survey:

The Wall Street Journal

[chinaco]

Don't look now.... you are in a recession.

If you listen, you can hear the final gasp. Unfortunately, the Bush administration kept the pressure on the fed to keep interest rates low to fuel the housing boom during the last election (wonder why)... I wonder if getting reelected had anything to do with it. Later the fed tried to raise rate and we see what happened... we are in a trap. The dollar is worth much less. If you raise rates, the economy suffers.

It is too bad. We have had 2 successive incidents of Financial oriented misbehavior that has tanked the country... The tech bubble, brought on by investment bankers hyping IPOs and misleading investors and the companies themselves. And now the Subprime debacle brought on by the same general group of people.

Something is wrong with the formula. More regulation is needed because without it the white collar criminals come out of the wood works...

[Notmuchlonger]

"So far, I've made a lot more money with Bush-II than with Clinton-I."

Ive done pretty well under both as have most of my family and personal contacts. But I keep forgetting how terrible it is in this country. Good thing I keep coming back to this message board to keep me in line

[armor99]

Quote:

Originally Posted by 2B The old joke is that economists have successfully predicted 8 of the last 3 recessions. The negative drum beats in the media would have you think our economy is falling down around our ears. The dems are certainly going to badmouth the economy and find fault with their repub breathern. So far, I've made a lot more money with Bush-II than with Clinton-I. The negatives are the decline in some housing markets (that most had gone up a lot more in the last 10 years than they've fallen) and the reduced liquidity. The biggest negative I see is the threat of the US government to overturn our private contract law for political purposes like any third world dictator would do. Both parties are guilty. When our contracts can not be trusted, then the US economy is doomed. The positives are near record (low) unemployment, strong productivity growth and low interest rates. It looks like one of our negatives will cause interest rates to fall again and probably stay low. I personally see a strong economy and stock market into 2009. At that point something will change and we'll get the economic cycle to go the other way for awhile. The victorious 2008 dems will then blame Bush-II for their problems but I doubt he will be responsible any more than the dems. The cycles happen. Politicians can do some things to minimize the impact but they almost always make it worse.

Thanks for an acurate, honest, and non-hysterical look at what the economy is really doing. I believe you are very correct. Our unemployment is historically VERY low right now. I saw a statistic the other day that out of ALL loans (prime, subprime, etc), a little less than 6% were in default. I still believe that is a fairly small number. Plus I see each and every day in the media, sometimes even in this forum, the almost gleefull proclimation that the economy is hosed... going into a great depression, world comming to an end etc.
The one thing that I do see alot and surprises me, is how many people look at all of the facts etc, and still proclaim to know "better". I personally believe there are a lot of people out there that WANT the economy to tank. Some are bitter people that feel all of their problems in life were caused by "the rich" (whoever those people really are), and that somehow if the economy tanks it will punish "the rich", but not themselves. The media is actively, and openly "rooting" for a democrat to win the presidency. The easiest way to help ensure that happens is to make conditions appear to be a bleak as possible. After all, when the economy is not doing well, whichever party is in office usually gets replaced by the other party. I look at the facts, at the statistics, and I do not see a reason why the stock market should be as down as it currently is. But we all know that the stock market can swing violently on the most esoteric of news (good or bad). I believe we are in fact "talking ourselves" into a rescession. A self fulfilling prophacy is what some people would call it. Obviously there are some very real reasons why the econmy is not doing as well as it could right now. But I think it is important to look at the big picture and remember that historically we are not so bad off right now.

[eridanus]

Quote:

Originally Posted by armor99 Obviously there are some very real reasons why the econmy is not doing as well as it could right now.

Like a primary dealer/prime broker (BSC) about to go under? The largest mortgage lender (CFC) on its knees? The Federal Reserve is now accepting mortgage-backed securities for the first time ever, as of last week, and you don't see a reason why the stock market is down? (Because there's not a market for said securities.)

And you claim that this is a "media" recession? Some vast left-wing conspiracy?


Here are our "VERY low" unemployment numbers. They seem to be pretty average (mid 4s). How are they near a record low?

Employment Situation Summary


Productivity growth is strong? Hmmm.

Productivity and Costs, Fourth Quarter and Annual Averages,2007 Revised

[ziggy29]

Sure, it will avoid recession. And there was no inflation last month. The government told me so, so it must be true.

[al_bundy]

Quote:

Originally Posted by lazygood4nothinbum love the economist thing, very funny. i've never noticed any difference in my lifestyle during my working years that could be attributed to either party in office. i managed fine enough regardless of who ruled. so would political party while not working make that much of a difference? i always need to (dis)qualify my comments on economy by saying that i have little idea of what is going on but i try to learn as i go. perhaps someone can enlighten me. has the economy become so regulated by what seems to be a tug of war between the fed and the market and has the economy become so intertwined with internationalism and has the economy become so much larger because of world trade that it no longer plays quite by all the same rules as it has in the past and by which people are trying to predict its future?

doubt it, these things take time to play them out. but we now live in a constant news cycle and you hear about these things and when changes don't happen overnight people dismiss them.

in the 1980's the market crashed in 1987, growth slowed for a few years until 1990 when the recession finally hit

[armor99]

Quote:

Originally Posted by eridanus Like a primary dealer/prime broker (BSC) about to go under? The largest mortgage lender (CFC) on its knees? The Federal Reserve is now accepting mortgage-backed securities for the first time ever, as of last week, and you don't see a reason why the stock market is down? (Because there's not a market for said securities.) And you claim that this is a "media" recession? Some vast left-wing conspiracy? Here are our "VERY low" unemployment numbers. They seem to be pretty average (mid 4s). How are they near a record low? Employment Situation Summary Productivity growth is strong? Hmmm. Productivity and Costs, Fourth Quarter and Annual Averages,2007 Revised

Eridanus, I stand behind exactly what I said... as for proof, I offer up the following for the labor data. I did in fact look up the link you provided. Thanks for doing the research. However, I decided to look deeper into the stats. And I will counter you with this...

ftp://ftp.bls.gov/pub/suppl/empsit.cpseea1.txt

The data shows clearly that between 1980 and 1986 the unemployment rate was MUCH higher than it is right now. Peaking in 1981 at a rate of a huge 9.7%! So clearly at least as far as unemployment goes we are in a far better situation than historically we have been in the past. There are certainly times when it has been lower than it is now, but my point was... it is really not so bad right now. As for the rest of what I said... some is just my opinion.... as I can never prove it.

[Shredder]

Quote:

Originally Posted by ziggy29 Sure, it will avoid recession. And there was no inflation last month. The government told me so, so it must be true.

Would that be the same goverment that said we needed banking de-regulation about 7 years ago, and has in the last week or two gave banks 400 BILLION to avoid a crisis, and today says we need regs to protect us common folk.....Shredder

[mathjak107]

does it really matter at this point if we are or not in a recession. ? the time to have had this discussion is last october. now it dosnt matter the damage is done. if your out of the markets now the focus should be about when to get back in as the turn arounds happen way before there is any light at the end of the tunnel.

miss that turn around by a week and you miss about 8% from your return that year. miss by a quarter. you cut 14% on average off your return and added another 1-1/2 years to recover

[2B]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Retire Soon It seems that a majority of economists disagree with the UCLA Anderson Forecast and believe we're now in a recession according to a new WSJ survey: The Wall Street Journal

A person becomes an economist when they don't have enough of a personality to be an accountant. (another saying about economists)

I really don't think that either political party is "better" for the market or the economy in general. I do have some serious concerns with what I hear from the dems. Of course, most is hopefully rhetoric to excite their base.

Even though the stock market is down, I don't see any real decline in the overall economy or business activity. Things have shifted around a little and I'm sure if I was in the mortgage or home construction business I would probably have a different perspective. Right now the downside seems to be localized to an industry that had gone into bubble mode for the last 5 years. We are now seeing the very messy backlash with a heavy sprinkling of fear mongering.

Of course, I live in Texas with the ebola and scorpions so the little housing bump doesn't make that big of an impact. Texas is still doing ok as far as real estate. I have noticed that when I talk to people from California, Nevada, Arizona and Florida their eyes go wide with fear. They should have been in Houston in the mid-80s. They'd then have seen a real housing collapse. Back then we "just made mistakes and needed to take our medicine." Nobody said a word about bailing us out. The government let untold numbers of S&Ls and banks go under.

[chinaco]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Notmuchlonger "So far, I've made a lot more money with Bush-II than with Clinton-I." Ive done pretty well under both as have most of my family and personal contacts. But I keep forgetting how terrible it is in this country. Good thing I keep coming back to this message board to keep me in line

Don't look now but your USD buys less on the world market and indexes like the S&P barely made it back to there previous high before it crumbled.

[2B]

Quote:

Originally Posted by chinaco Don't look now but your USD buys less on the world market and indexes like the S&P barely made it back to there previous high before it crumbled.

I don't know about the others but I made most of my money in the past few years in my foreign funds.

[chinaco]

I think the question should be updated to say: How long will the US be in the Recession that began in 2008?

[mathjak107]

1/2 way. then we are coming out........

i just love predicting

[2B]

Quote:

Originally Posted by chinaco I think the question should be updated to say: How long will the US be in the Recession that began in 2008?

The comical part is that "officially" the 2000-2002 "correction" never officially met the definition of a recession.

[ziggy29]

Quote:

Originally Posted by 2B I don't know about the others but I made most of my money in the past few years in my foreign funds.

Since 2004, most of my money has been made in foreign stocks, especially emerging markets, and gold stocks/funds. To a lesser extent, I did well with small caps and REITs, at least until the end of '06.

[RockOn]

I'll beat an old drum. If the government was reporting the true inflation rate we have been in a recession off and on for some time now. Real GDP=Nominal GDP minus inflation. Fudging that inflation rate is a major factor in many things.