ugh almost ready to give in to panic

[calmloki]

Bought $5k of VTSMX and $5k of BAC shortly before the close. Not enough to make any difference to our standard of living if we ever get retardified, but satisfies the feeling i should do something!

[73ss454]

I did 8K in VTSMX today also.

[Razor]

Any predictions what the DOW will do tomorrow? I say up 50.

[ziggy29]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Razor Any predictions what the DOW will do tomorrow? I say up 50.

Knowing that I don't really know, and I'm just having fun with it...

It will have triple digit gains for much of the day and sell off in the last hour to close near flatline.

Fridays are generally not friendly in this market. Plus I think there may be some end-of-quarter purges by some institutions who don't want to have vertain stocks (of certain allocations to stocks) in their quarterly reports...

[windsurf]

[quote=Mysto;675195]I'm not under 50 but....

Watching CNBC today and many experts were saying not to buy now. But I remember that these were the same experts telling m to buy- buy- buy only a year ago.

So I bought some more today.

Amen, brother.

[unclemick]

From the Vanguard personal webpage:

psssst Wellesley 4.24% yield and my very own Target 2015 3.05%.

And this time it's NOT different - in spite of investing (1966 - 2008) I'll probably get 'that twinge' and spend less this year even though I'm not getting any younger and there is a hot rumor I can't take it with me.

Hopefully I will 'hurry up and just stand there' with my retirement money.

1987 crash was the last time I really cracked - greed and lust caused me to from 50/50 to 100% 500 Index fund in my 401k.

Drat it all - hormones, hobby money, preseason isn't till August or so. The itch to buy, or remodel something, perhaps a back deck or kayak or ??

heh heh heh - At least I know those Vanguard computers are busy rebalancing my balanced index funds.

[jclarksnakes]

I should clarify that my COLA'd pension is "supplemented" with my paycheck from my parttime job and DW's paycheck from her job. Her job BTW, will soon enough result in another COLA'd pension. A COLA'd pension is only money. Some number of $$ more in the portfolio would be just as good.
Jeff

[SkisALot]

Each person has to listen to his/her own inner voice to determine what is right for him. (Notwithstanding the butter knife, that is.) I don't mean to offend anyone, but I do think that having a pension makes it easier to be cavalier about difficult times, and having both a pension and retiree heatlh insurance makes it even more so. As for me, I don't have either; I'm on my own here with a longevity genetic code, and I am very much concerned.

[BunsGettingFirm]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nords Should that make a difference?

Absolutely not especially if you're marrying for money.

[windsurf]

Quote:

Originally Posted by SkisALot and I am very much concerned.

I feel your pain, but like many of the geezers on the board, these times of anxiety and sleepless nights have turned out to be the worst times to panic and sell, a time to at least sit tight, and for the bold, more often, the time to buy (or for the meek like me, to see a month from now that I should have bought). Hang in there.

[SkisALot]

Quote:

Originally Posted by windsurf I feel your pain, but like many of the geezers on the board, these times of anxiety and sleepless nights have turned out to be the worst times to panic and sell, a time to at least sit tight, and for the bold, more often, the time to buy (or for the meek like me, to see a month from now that I should have bought). Hang in there.

Thanks Windsurf. I've actually gotten a little better than when I retired 3 years ago; then I didn't sleep much in this kind of financial environment; now - like now - I have a gin and tonic and take comfort from good people like you.

[rogersteciak]

Quote:

Originally Posted by cute fuzzy bunny But you DO have a cash buffer of at least a year or two of expenses, right? You DO have the ability to avoid liquidating equities for at least 3-4 years, yes? You ARE cutting costs and expenses, ya? Then you've got nothing to worry about.

One school of thought says that we're going to see these volatile swings (between euphoric highs and depressing lows) over the next few decades for a variety of reasons. This means we'll get though the present crisis eventually and on to the next spate of good times before things turn around again and we're back into the next crisis.

The time to start preparing for the next crisis is right now while we are in one because we are all painfully aware of what we should have done during more prosperous times to be able to SWAN (sleep well at night) right now. We are currently living, rather than just imagining, what it is like when the financial world is in a crisis.

[clifp]

This month in dividends

Quote:

June 11: Caterpillar Inc.'s (CAT) board on Wednesday increased the quarterly dividend by 17% to 42 cents from 36 cents. The dividend will be paid Aug. 20 to stockholders of record at the close of business July 21.

Quote:

June 24: the board of directors of BB&T Corporation (NYSE: BBT) today declared an increase in the 2008 third quarter dividend to $0.47 per share, a 2.2 percent increase over the $0.46 paid in the third quarter of 2007. The dividend will be paid Aug. 1 to shareholders of record as of July 11. "We are pleased to announce an increase in the cash dividend," said Chairman and Chief Executive Officer John Allison. "This increase marks the 37th consecutive year that BB&T has increased the cash dividend paid to shareholders and reflects our healthy capital levels." The 10-year compound growth rate for BB&T's quarterly dividend payment is 10.4 percent. BB&T has paid a cash dividend to shareholders every year since 1903.

Now to be fair, there has lots of discussion of dividend cuts in the stock I own especially financial. But there has been only one company who actually cut the dividend MMAB, vs more than a dozen increase this year.

It is a pity I need to the dividend income to pay bills cause at these prices I'd sure like to buy more but I'll stick to reinvesting dividends in my IRAs.

[headingout]

The one benefit I can see in the lousy market is that it has made me appreciate my job: it's nice to have an income right now. I've been buying stocks aggressively since the first big low in January. Yeah it stinks that everything I've bought since then is underwater, but that's the price of buying through a downturn. In my case, there is no other game in town: If I want to ER, I need the stock market to do it. If I just sit on my money in CD's, ER is a decade away. So I'll keep buying stocks steadily, and I'll stop once the Dow has climbed back into the high 12,000's. In the meantime my bonds, commodities, and energy investments are keeping the ship afloat. Such diversification is absolutely essential to avoid truly gut-wrenching losses.

[copyright1997reloaded]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Helena You're right... you don't speak for me. I cashed out last year and had absolutely no tax hit. We'll see who's ahead of the game come next April. ~

The problem with cashing completely out is a) you need to not only time the getting out part but the getting back in part, and b) if you are in cash, your asset base is slowly eroding due to inflation. [I did manage to do this somewhat in 2000 with my 401k, but was that skill or luck :confused:.]

It is painful to watch your portfolio go down down down, but what is puzzling to me is the level of angst in terms of these huge losses. Let's review, since October (the high), the Dow is down 19%, SP500 18%. Geez, I remember losing over 20% in 1 day in 1987 and that wasn't the end of the world (although it felt like it at the time).

[limpid lizard]

I've been retired 15 months. I was pig headed and refused to invest my lump sum buyout when the DOW was at 14000. About 13,000 I started buying. I have just about spent it all. Today I dumped in another 10K and will buy again tomorrow if it drops. With no pension, and having lived on the investments for 15 months, I am within a couple of thousand either way of being even.

I'm nervous, but have about 3 years left in MM funds and hope this thing turns around by then. I will be going in the hole very shortly if it does not turn around. If we make it back to 13,000, I should be doing good.

[statsman]

Quote:

Originally Posted by windsurf I feel your pain, but like many of the geezers on the board, these times of anxiety and sleepless nights have turned out to be the worst times to panic and sell, a time to at least sit tight, and for the bold, more often, the time to buy (or for the meek like me, to see a month from now that I should have bought). Hang in there.

I now wish I had been following our 401(k)s on a regular basis for the past 20+ years. I would have gotten a better feel for the ups and downs of the various markets.

But now at 49, some six years from what I had hoped was going to be an early retirement, every little sneeze in the stock market is like a kick to the stomach. A repeat of 2000-2002 would force us to work for another 5-10 years.

I really don't know what to do next. It is a completely helpless feeling. I truly envy those who are so confident that the stock market will rebound and regain all that has been lost the past year.

All I am doing now is engaging in a death spiral. I have to find a solution and stick with it. Easier said than done. I think this will be my last word on this subject in this forum, as I have relayed our sob story a dozen times too many already.

My thanks to those of you who offered words of advice and understanding. Here's hoping for a stock market rebound and soon.

[TargaDave]

Quote:

Originally Posted by cute fuzzy bunny Not speaking for Helena, but the way it usually works is your cash gets eaten alive by inflation, the market rebounds and you miss getting back all of the money you lost, and then you get clobbered with a huge capital gains tax next april.

Excellent point CFB. Every time I listen to someone talk about successfully timing the market at such an extreme level I say "bunk".

[kumquat]

Sell everything and follow the appropriate AA:

33% gold
33% Reynolds's Wrap
33% divided between Glock, Smith&Wesson, Winchester and Taser (some being their products)
1% cash (in case you need to feed parking meters)
A bit of Kool-Aid for the end

[W2R]

Quote:

Originally Posted by copyright1997reloaded Let's review, since October (the high), the Dow is down 19%, SP500 18%.

Wow, is it down that far? I hadn't checked, and didn't realize that the drop had been so large. Actually this is reassuring, because I am feeling fairly confident and placid about the recent rollercoaster ride (and didn't think I would be, after a drop of 19%).

Valentine's Day, February 14th, was the day I received much of my windfall, but it was also another day when the market was really tanking. Many of us were moaning and kvetching on the board about our portfolios. But since Valentine's Day, VTSMX (total stock market) has gone down only 4% and VFWIX (All World ex-US) has gone down just 1%.

My conclusion is that so far, the recent drop is within the realm of normal market variation and ups and downs. Comparing recent minimums to prior minimums instead of comparing recent minimums to prior maximums helps me to defuse most of my fears.

(Well, that and a conservative 55:45 fixed:equity asset allocation; my portfolio is only down about 2% since February 14th.)