ugh almost ready to give in to panic

Nords said:
I don't get it. No one was complaining last year when the market was 20% overvalued. Shouldn't we all be doing the happy dance now that the market is 20% off its peak and heading for undervalued?!?

Just made my spouse's final IRA contribution. Our asset allocations are holding steady, and Berkshire Hathaway is having a blue-light special sale this month.

I'll be surfing...
Click to expand...

It could still be overvalued if the actual value of the corporations are dropping faster than their stocks.
 
statsman said:
There is enough bad news to keep this bear market going for quite some time.
Click to expand...
Who knows? Personally, I suspect you're right.

statsman said:
And much of the rest of the world doesn't seem to have a problem sticking it to the US this time around.
Click to expand...
I'm not quite sure what you mean. Money effectively knows no borders, and goes wherever it can find the best risk/reward combination. Given such obvious problems as the unsustainable current account deficit and the ever-increasing federal debt (to name but two examples), many investors (including Americans) are understandably loath to put money into the US economy or the greenback; but that has nothing to do with any desire to "stick it to the US".
 
Yep, I still cant figure out real estate and equities. Everything goes on sale and people run screaming for the exits. Overprice everything and everyone stands in line with their checkbook in hand, screaming to buy.

If you dont have a plan that gets you through a 3 year trough, you have a bad plan.

If you dont have a plan with a spending reduction program and some other ways to defer volatility risk, you have a bad plan.
 
cute fuzzy bunny said:
Yep, I still cant figure out real estate and equities. Everything goes on sale and people run screaming for the exits. Overprice everything and everyone stands in line with their checkbook in hand, screaming to buy.
Click to expand...
"Greed" and "fear", respectively. Two powerful emotions, that's for sure.
 
True story: I was walking near the Charles Schwab sign: time, temp., DOW, Nasdaq, Schwab 1000, etc. Three men dressed as young executives were just ahead of me. One of them said, "what does down mean?"
 
Helena said:
Meantime, back at the ranch... I'm happily peacefully cashed out. :angel:


~
Click to expand...

This is something I've always wondered . How do you cash out if most of your investments are in taxable accounts ? How do you handle the tremendous capital gains ? And where do you put the money ? Sorry if this question is elementary .
 
Not speaking for Helena, but the way it usually works is your cash gets eaten alive by inflation, the market rebounds and you miss getting back all of the money you lost, and then you get clobbered with a huge capital gains tax next april.
 
the time to worry and try to figure out if we are headed into a prolonged recession was last october...you missed it folks .... now the only question should be should we hold a little more money on the side if we arent in or put it all in now
 
cute fuzzy bunny said:
Not speaking for Helena, but the way it usually works is your cash gets eaten alive by inflation, the market rebounds and you miss getting back all of the money you lost, and then you get clobbered with a huge capital gains tax next april.
Click to expand...

Well in my case, as much as I have bitched and moaned, I have not sold. But I'm getting clobbered by inflation and a bear market. Not a good recipe for success, to borrow another poster's line. But I hope you are right about the market rebounding at some point. Hard to see anytime soon.
 
Moemg said:
This is something I've always wondered . How do you cash out if most of your investments are in taxable accounts ? How do you handle the tremendous capital gains ? And where do you put the money ? Sorry if this question is elementary .
Click to expand...

I sold a significant chunk (20%) of my port last August and was able to offset the gains by selling what was left of some nearly worthless tech stocks. I've been buying all the way down here recently, including today. I sure could be wrong, but this market looks like a great opportunity...
 
mathjak107 said:
the time to worry and try to figure out if we are headed into a prolonged recession was last october...you missed it folks .... now the only question should be should we hold a little more money on the side if we arent in or put it all in now
Click to expand...

20-20?
 
Milton said:
"Greed" and "fear", respectively. Two powerful emotions, that's for sure.
Click to expand...
Yep. And the ones that are the most likely to kill portfolios. You may make a lucky call based on greed or fear once in a while. But if you live that way, ultimately you're going to be doing a lot of buying high and selling low.
 
Dawg52 said:
Hard to see anytime soon.
Click to expand...

Probably not this year.

But you DO have a cash buffer of at least a year or two of expenses, right?

You DO have the ability to avoid liquidating equities for at least 3-4 years, yes?

You ARE cutting costs and expenses, ya?

Then you've got nothing to worry about.
 
Moemg said:
This is something I've always wondered . How do you cash out if most of your investments are in taxable accounts ? How do you handle the tremendous capital gains ? And where do you put the money ? Sorry if this question is elementary .
Click to expand...

All my stocks/mutual funds were either in 401K or Roth accounts...
I switched all to cash before I retired last June. No tax hit at all.
 
73ss454 said:
If I had a Cola pension I'd be doing the happy dance. At this point I'm a wall flower.
Click to expand...
Hey, if you want a COLA pension too, then you can go buy a COLA-adjusted annuity from Vanguard for a lot less than I paid for mine. The payer might have a slightly lower credit rating but I'm not sure that'll make a difference over our lifespans. You won't have to learn how to breathe underwater either.

All I'm saying is that the people who were gleeful last year (or kvetching that they weren't up as much) should not be complaining this year. If anything they should be figuring out at what prices they'll be buyers. It's the two sides of volatility.

It sure is different this time-- because so far the NASDAQ hasn't lost over 50% of its value and the S&P500 hasn't had a one-day drop of 22%, let alone the drops it experienced in 2001-2. So for those "it's different this time", this is barely a blip on the volatility radar. Anyone this year's volatility to be scary should perhaps revisit their desired asset-allocation plans.

But our COLA pension is the reason that our ER portfolio is 92% equities. We're down 21% from last year's all-time high but only down 7% YTD. We rebalanced last Feb (when Berkshire Hathaway was 17% higher than today's close) and we have two year's spending money in a money market & CDs. Thanks to a few gentle nudges from Laurence, our kid's college money is also in two-year CDs for her 2010 graduation.

No cutbacks planned so far. But when I update the "should I pay off the mortgage or invest" thread in a few months, I suspect it's going to be a demonstration of short-term pain for the prospect of long-term gain.
 
cute fuzzy bunny said:
Not speaking for Helena, but the way it usually works is your cash gets eaten alive by inflation, the market rebounds and you miss getting back all of the money you lost, and then you get clobbered with a huge capital gains tax next april.
Click to expand...

You're right... you don't speak for me.

I cashed out last year and had absolutely no tax hit.

We'll see who's ahead of the game come next April.


~
 
cute fuzzy bunny said:
Probably not this year.

But you DO have a cash buffer of at least a year or two of expenses, right?

You DO have the ability to avoid liquidating equities for at least 3-4 years, yes?

You ARE cutting costs and expenses, ya?

Then you've got nothing to worry about.
Click to expand...

Yes to the first 2, but I'm already a cheap old bastard so hard to cut anything.
 
I have a feeling that we are pretty close to the bottom so this IS the right time to panic and sell it all. As for me...I will be buying tomorrow or early next week. Our portfolio is down a bunch from the highs of october but we are still WAY ahead this decade. Saving and investing is a long term project. COLA'd pension has me not worrying too much about recent market levels and little things like living expenses.
Life is good!
Jeff
 
The main takeaway I'm getting from this thread is that it's easy to relax if you're one of the fortunate few with a COLA'd pension.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Latest posts

Back
Top Bottom