Ukraine/Inflation Poet Impacts

[Chuckanut]

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Originally Posted by DFW_M5 Taiwan should place explosives in their fabs as a China deterrent. Unfortunately, just another strong US industry that we let slip away.

OTOH, China has to see how the rest of the world is reacting to Ukraine and thinking "Hmmm.... EU sending military hardware to Ukraine. Germany finally deciding beef up it's military. NATO more united than ever. Worldwide criticism. That's probably not what Russia was expecting." Who knows?

[eytonxav]

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Originally Posted by Chuckanut OTOH, China has to see how the rest of the world is reacting to Ukraine and thinking "Hmmm.... EU sending military hardware to Ukraine. Germany finally deciding beef up it's military. NATO more united than ever. Worldwide criticism. That's probably not what Russia was expecting." Who knows?

Agree, let's hope that gives them pause.

[Markola]

I’ve been reading obsessively and this is easily the best overview of the Ukraine War context that I’ve seen. It’s from Fiona Hill, who knows Putin directly and wrote a book about him. Other commentators are laughing at Putin and saying, “What was he thinking?” She explains exactly what he’s thinking, which is that Putin’s aggression has been going on since 2008, is part of his plan and very reason for being president, and is no where near complete.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazi...there-00012340

[Chuckanut]

This site I have found that has a day-to-day summary of what they think is going on in Ukraine.

https://www.criticalthreats.org/

[2HOTinPHX]

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Originally Posted by Markola I’ve been reading obsessively and this is easily the best overview of the Ukraine War context that I’ve seen. It’s from Fiona Hill, who knows Putin directly and wrote a book about him. Other commentators are laughing at Putin and saying, “What was he thinking?” She explains exactly what he’s thinking, which is that Putin’s aggression has been going on since 2008, is part of his plan and very reason for being president, and is no where near complete. https://www.politico.com/news/magazi...there-00012340

Wow that is a scary, eye opening interview. I hope everyone reads it. Fiona Hill is a very knowledgeable person when it comes to Russia. Thanks for posting it.

[Popeye]

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Originally Posted by Markola I’ve been reading obsessively and this is easily the best overview of the Ukraine War context that I’ve seen. It’s from Fiona Hill, who knows Putin directly and wrote a book about him. Other commentators are laughing at Putin and saying, “What was he thinking?” She explains exactly what he’s thinking, which is that Putin’s aggression has been going on since 2008, is part of his plan and very reason for being president, and is no where near complete. https://www.politico.com/news/magazi...there-00012340

A good read for sure but I was a little disappointed in the oil and gas discussion. She mentions that the Saudis should produce more but says nothing about the US producing more. I don’t think we have a choice.

[misanman]

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A good read for sure but I was a little disappointed in the oil and gas discussion. She mentions that the Saudis should produce more but says nothing about the US producing more. I don’t think we have a choice.

And I understand that the US is still importing 500,000 barrels per day of Russian petroleum products. What gives with that?

[Markola]

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Originally Posted by JDPascale Wow that is a scary, eye opening interview. I hope everyone reads it. Fiona Hill is a very knowledgeable person when it comes to Russia. Thanks for posting it.

One reads that historical analysis and the question becomes, “Putin will continue causing conflict, because that’s what he does, so, how does Putin end?” NATO isn’t going to invade Russia, so:

A palace coup seems possible, which is why Putin keeps his aides at the end of a comically long table. No one is seen standing behind him, either. I wouldn’t be surprised if he has people tasting his food. He’s poisoned others, after all.

Or, the Russian population hurts so much that they just stop supporting him. General strikes, massive street protests, resulting state violence. The civilized people of the world seem unified in making Putin’s Russia an isolated pariah, like we haven’t seen since South Africa, including sanctions, asset freezes, sports, arts, ESG committees. It seems like the veil is finally lifted on this evil man and that, sooner or later, this cannot end well for him.

[ExFlyBoy5]

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Originally Posted by Markola Or, the Russian population hurts so much that they just stop supporting him. General strikes, massive street protests, resulting state violence. The civilized people of the world seem unified in making Putin’s Russia an isolated pariah, like we haven’t seen since South Africa, including sanctions, asset freezes, sports, arts, ESG committees. It seems like the veil is finally lifted on this evil man and that, sooner or later, this cannot end well for him.

I think that is the key. It seems as though a very large segment of the population is NOT a fan of Putin and eventually he will probably be unseated. If they can "bring the pain" (stop paying/feeding the army), that will probably move things along pretty quick.

[pacergal]

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Originally Posted by JDPascale Wow that is a scary, eye opening interview. I hope everyone reads it. Fiona Hill is a very knowledgeable person when it comes to Russia. Thanks for posting it.

I read that also. An excellent article and very frightening.

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Originally Posted by ExFlyBoy5 I think that is the key. It seems as though a very large segment of the population is NOT a fan of Putin and eventually he will probably be unseated. If they can "bring the pain" (stop paying/feeding the army), that will probably move things along pretty quick.

No doubt Putin needs to go, The problem is How quickly and at what harm to the Ukrainians or other countries?

It is so sad to watch this unfolding.

[NW-Bound]

Putin reminds us again how a single guy can cause a lot of damage.

You cannot be too wary of despots.

[NW-Bound]

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Originally Posted by misanman And I understand that the US is still importing 500,000 barrels per day of Russian petroleum products. What gives with that?

A country usually imports things if they are at a lower cost than can be produced domestically. The interest of the consumer has to be balanced against the national security. Unfortunately, the price effect is immediate and obvious, while the latter is often only evident after the fact.

I read that Japan has been subsidizing rice farmers even though imported rice would be cheaper. It was due to the above concern.

[NW-Bound]

Back on the inflation discussion, it seems reasonable to me that the prospect of high inflation is raised significantly when Russian tanks crossed into Ukraine.

Nothing much I can do about it, except to watch and curse at the despot. My portfolio will drop to where it will be, I am not selling anything at this point. My expenses are already low, I do not need to change my life habits any.

The only thing I miss now is the chance to take another long European trek. Even when war is not occurring where I want to go, it's not a happy mood. Damn Putin.

[VFK57]

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Originally Posted by ExFlyBoy5 I think that is the key. It seems as though a very large segment of the population is NOT a fan of Putin and eventually he will probably be unseated. If they can "bring the pain" (stop paying/feeding the army), that will probably move things along pretty quick.

I do not think you, or anyone who thinks likewise, could count on that. I read both Ukrainian and Russian news and Russia is under total control by the Government. The radio stations which protest the war are closed by the Government on charges of "treason", only the "patriotic" information is allowed. In Moscow were street brawls between young protesters and retirees which remember and dream of USSR restoration (what is impossible, even Putin understands that). Russia is controlling it's media, it is not Ukraine. Unfortunately the Ukrainian political elite, what influence the president decisions, did not calculate their actions, what highly irritated the dictator Putin and led him think that the war is his only solution to prevent NATO accept Ukraine. What if, hypothetically speaking" Cuba or Mexico declared a military alliance with China or Russia and Russian or Chinese advisors and weapons would start to flow into those countries, would we react and if necessary with force? Ukraine, at least for a few years or permanently could declare non alliance status and abandon it's drive to be accepted to NATO, at least when they had clearly seen the military build up around Ukrainian borders and being warned up about imminent attack. Austria, Finland have this status from the end of WW2 and are members of EU. In fact Russia withdrew the troops after the WW2 and never attacked them. The dictator may not risk the war with all sanctions to follow, what may ruin Russian economy.

[VFK57]

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Originally Posted by NW-Bound Putin reminds us again how a single guy can cause a lot of damage. You cannot be too wary of despots.

It is not only single guy, it is KGB or FSB nowadays who run Russia. There are much more hawkish advisors, who would not think twice to use their Nukes if Russian vital interests are at stake. Likely for us, they do not have their economy as strong as USSR had in 1950s through 1970s

[Popeye]

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Originally Posted by VFK57 I do not think you, or anyone who thinks likewise, could count on that. I read both Ukrainian and Russian news and Russia is under total control by the Government. The radio stations which protest the war are closed by the Government on charges of "treason", only the "patriotic" information is allowed. In Moscow were street brawls between young protesters and retirees which remember and dream of USSR restoration (what is impossible, even Putin understands that). Russia is controlling it's media, it is not Ukraine. Unfortunately the Ukrainian political elite, what influence the president decisions, did not calculate their actions, what highly irritated the dictator Putin and led him think that the war is his only solution to prevent NATO accept Ukraine. What if, hypothetically speaking" Cuba or Mexico declared a military alliance with China or Russia and Russian or Chinese advisors and weapons would start to flow into those countries, would we react and if necessary with force? Ukraine, at least for a few years or permanently could declare non alliance status and abandon it's drive to be accepted to NATO, at least when they had clearly seen the military build up around Ukrainian borders and being warned up about imminent attack. Austria, Finland have this status from the end of WW2 and are members of EU. In fact Russia withdrew the troops after the WW2 and never attacked them. The dictator may not risk the war with all sanctions to follow, what may ruin Russian economy.

I’m not buying into the whole Ukraine in NATO excuse. I think it is just a convenient rationalization Putin is using with his people. If that hadn’t been discussed, he would have found another excuse to act.

The irony is he has strengthened the alliance more than anyone ever could. Even countries like Sweden and Finland have openly stated they are considering trying to join. Heck, the Germans are even getting off the stick and sending arms and will start paying more for their own defense. I think this is a wake up call for Europe which lived for 75 years under the US defense umbrella. While Europe built their infrastructure, we built our military. It may be time for those roles to reverse.

[VFK57]

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Originally Posted by Popeye I’m not buying into the whole Ukraine in NATO excuse. I think it is just a convenient rationalization Putin is using with his people. If that hadn’t been discussed, he would have found another excuse to act. The irony is he has strengthened the alliance more than anyone ever could. Even countries like Sweden and Finland have openly stated they are considering trying to join. Heck, the Germans are even getting off the stick and sending arms and will start paying more for their own defense. I think this is a wake up call for Europe which lived for 75 years under the US defense umbrella. While Europe built their infrastructure, we built our military. It may be time for those roles to reverse.

Agree, it is a wake up call for Europe. However, lets do not forget our own actions when USSR started installing Nukes in Cuba. Do you think it is different because it is Russia? Also, two world major rising powers like China and India refused to condemn this aggression and impose any condemnation or sanctions and that is what Putin counts on. Both Giant counties are needing Russian Nat Resources and weapons technologies. I think it is them who is going to benefit from this war.

[OldShooter]

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Originally Posted by VFK57 ... do not forget our own actions when USSR started installing Nukes in Cuba. Do you think it is different because it is Russia? ...

No. I think it is different because nobody is talking about installing missiles in Ukraine. Cuba was a client state of USSR and right on the US doorstep for a long time before Russia decided to try installing missiles. Ukraine is not even a NATO member at this point.

The Russians probably would not see it this way, but IMO geographic proximity of missiles has been achieved by surface and submarine-launched cruise and ballistic missiles. So the issue of short notice is already there, whether there are missiles in former USSR NATO countries or not.

As a Ukrainian you are far more qualified to guess intentions than I am, but I just don't see that the current situation is analogous to the USSR attempt to actually install the missiles in Cuba.

[Aerides]

Mod Note:

Discussions on Geo Politics do not go well. Please keep this thread on the topic of the financial/market impacts.

[VFK57]

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Originally Posted by OldShooter No. I think it is different because nobody is talking about installing missiles in Ukraine. Cuba was a client state of USSR and right on the US doorstep for a long time before Russia decided to try installing missiles. Ukraine is not even a NATO member at this point. The Russians probably would not see it this way, but IMO geographic proximity of missiles has been achieved by surface and submarine-launched cruise and ballistic missiles. So the issue of short notice is already there, whether there are missiles in former USSR NATO countries or not. As a Ukrainian you are far more qualified to guess intentions than I am, but I just don't see that the current situation is analogous to the USSR attempt to actually install the missiles in Cuba.

As Ukrainian, I think that President Zelenskii never had been in politics. Ukrainians elected him because they had been sick of corruption, what no Ukrainian president in 31 years of the independence seriously fought and his promise to make peace with Russia, standing on his knees in front of Ukrainians, I watched it on Ukrainian TV. Breaking with Russia, Ukraine economy lost biggest trade partner and East Ukrainian industry was left in cold and struggling, working not a full week, some closed for the past 8 years. More and more increasing her Debt to the IMF. I am not a politician and in no way advocate for the aggressive dictator, however, when the country is surrounded from 3 sides with massive modern army, while I do not have a NATO membership and have no adequate air force and at the same time Putin's speech to the world that a missile flight from Ukrainian border to Moscow is less than 5 min. and that NATO tricked Russia about East expansion, clearly threatening war, I would get very serious about imminent war and declare to the world that Ukraine is neutral and withdrew the application from NATO. Saving lives of Ukrainians is far more important. Instead of doing the negotiations with Russia with the West help to avoid all out invasion, the Ukrainian Government basically ignored all of the above. After all the Ukrainians lives are more important than looking a victim in a war you cannot win. I think that the President has bad advisors, although his courage to stay in besieged Kiev is admirable.