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Updated longevity estimator
Old 10-11-2019, 02:40 PM   #1
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Updated longevity estimator

https://www.longevityillustrator.org/

Enjoy!

"The ALI has been developed as an educational tool by the American Academy of Actuaries and the Society of Actuaries. Although the ALI has been designed to be used to estimate longevity for retirement, it may have additional applications. While the ALI provides a reasonable approximation, you or your spouse/partner’s actual lifetime can differ significantly from these estimates, either above or below. The ALI is not designed to address your finances; this includes your investments, your earning potential and your anticipated expenses."
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Old 10-11-2019, 02:46 PM   #2
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Not too much detail, but okay.
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Old 10-11-2019, 03:03 PM   #3
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Over 20% chance of making 95?
Don't think so.
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Old 10-11-2019, 03:04 PM   #4
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It requires very little info as input. But given what it is, it confirms that there is ~10% chance that one of us will reach 101 yrs old. We used 100 yrs of age in our planning. But for both of us to reach that age. There is also a ~10% chance that we will both survive to age 92.

On the other hand, there is a 10% chance that one of us will leave this Earth within the next 4 yrs.
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Old 10-11-2019, 03:09 PM   #5
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Over 20% chance of making 95?
Don't think so.
Sure. And as a bet, the odds are 4/1 in favor of you won't. But would you bet your entire retirement finances/planning on running out before 95?
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Old 10-11-2019, 03:17 PM   #6
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Looks similar to the charts that the SS puts out. The big take-away from a planning perspective, for me anyway, is the either column. The chances of either DW or I reaching 95 is a lot higher than just my individual chance.
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Old 10-11-2019, 04:52 PM   #7
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Couldn't play. Person 1's retirement age must be between 63 and 99, which leaves me out since I retired in my 50's. And Person 2 doesn't even have a space for retirement age.
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Old 10-11-2019, 04:55 PM   #8
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Looks similar to the charts that the SS puts out. The big take-away from a planning perspective, for me anyway, is the either column. The chances of either DW or I reaching 95 is a lot higher than just my individual chance.
Indeed.
The major reason I moved our retirement planning to 95 death age.
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Old 10-11-2019, 05:39 PM   #9
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Couldn't play. Person 1's retirement age must be between 63 and 99, which leaves me out since I retired in my 50's. And Person 2 doesn't even have a space for retirement age.
If you don't enter a retirement age, is assumes you are already retired. I just tried it using a 1970 year of birth. Sure enough it worked. In the calc's, it reported retirement was at age 50. Try again leaving that space blank.
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Old 10-12-2019, 06:13 AM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Amethyst View Post
Couldn't play. Person 1's retirement age must be between 63 and 99, which leaves me out since I retired in my 50's. And Person 2 doesn't even have a space for retirement age.
It did not work for me with my actual retirement age so I entered the lowest acceptable age (my current age) and it produced a result. I wondered about that - seems like the data probably doesn't add much to the equation.
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Old 10-12-2019, 07:41 AM   #11
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Couldn't play. Person 1's retirement age must be between 63 and 99, which leaves me out since I retired in my 50's. And Person 2 doesn't even have a space for retirement age.

Interesting, I entered my retirement age as 54, even though that's in the future for me, and it accepted it. What's annoying is that you can't put in a retirement age for the other person. My partner and I are only a year apart in age, but I know some couples here have a 10+ year difference. Oh well, it's still interesting, but I'd love to see a calculator/guesstimator that asks for how long your parents and grandparents lived, more health data, stuff like that.
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Old 10-14-2019, 08:47 AM   #12
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Originally Posted by The Cosmic Avenger View Post
Interesting, I entered my retirement age as 54, even though that's in the future for me, and it accepted it. What's annoying is that you can't put in a retirement age for the other person. My partner and I are only a year apart in age, but I know some couples here have a 10+ year difference. Oh well, it's still interesting, but I'd love to see a calculator/guesstimator that asks for how long your parents and grandparents lived, more health data, stuff like that.
I don't think the point of the estimator is to give the user a precise answer - when we plan for retirement we need to think about future events as probabilities, not certainties
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Old 10-14-2019, 09:03 AM   #13
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I don't think the point of the estimator is to give the user a precise answer - when we plan for retirement we need to think about future events as probabilities, not certainties

I wasn't looking for a precise answer, I was noting that Amethyst couldn't put in a retirement age before 63, but I could, and presenting the relevant data (that it's in the future for me), as it's still not clear if the discrepancy is intentional or a programming error.
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Old 10-14-2019, 09:11 AM   #14
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Originally Posted by The Cosmic Avenger View Post
I wasn't looking for a precise answer, I was noting that Amethyst couldn't put in a retirement age before 63, but I could, and presenting the relevant data (that it's in the future for me), as it's still not clear if the discrepancy is intentional or a programming error.
i just dropped in 56 no problems. The retirement age just can't be in the past; If you are retired, just enter your current age.
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Old 10-14-2019, 09:14 AM   #15
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"The purpose of these illustrations is to provide an estimate of how long you and your spouse/partner might live. The information is intended to provide reasonable estimates; however, you or your spouse/partner’s actual lifetime can differ significantly from these estimates. The illustration methodology was developed by actuaries who are members of the American Academy of Actuaries and/or the Society of Actuaries.

Technical note: All calculations are based on the information you provide and the 2016 Social Security Administration mortality table, with future mortality improvement projected using the Society of Actuaries’ MP-2018 scale."
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Old 10-14-2019, 10:35 AM   #16
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It said I died last Tuesday...
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Old 10-14-2019, 11:09 AM   #17
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Person 1's Retirement Age must be between 59 (Actual Age) and 99.

Guess it docent like ER.
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Old 10-14-2019, 11:10 AM   #18
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It said I died last Tuesday...

Should help lower your SWR.
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Old 10-14-2019, 12:11 PM   #19
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Seems overly simplistic. I would have thought a tool created by actual Actuaries would either:
include a lot more variables
or explain why the typically relevant variables are not significant contributors to their tool.
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Old 10-14-2019, 12:20 PM   #20
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Seems overly simplistic. I would have thought a tool created by actual Actuaries would either:
include a lot more variables
or explain why the typically relevant variables are not significant contributors to their tool.
sigh

"In addition to those considered in the ALI, longevity depends on many factors. These include: availability and access to health care, current medical conditions, exposure to environmental toxins, family history, geography, income, lifestyle and occupation. While these all affect longevity, many of them are reflected in your health status. The four factors chosen for the ALI (age, gender, smoking and health) have been shown to account for a significant amount of the individual variations in longevity. While these four pieces of information have been shown to produce reasonable approximations of an individual’s longevity*, you or your spouse/partner’s actual lifetime can differ significantly from these estimates, either above or below."
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