USGrant1962
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Kitces, with his usual optimism, has posted a great discussion of the upside of SORR.
https://www.kitces.com/blog/url-ups...eturn-risk-in-retirement-median-final-wealth/
He demonstrates that the 30-year annualized return is not highly correlated with the SWR. Cases with up to 9.5% 30-year returns and 5.5% 30-year returns were able to sustain the 4% SWR regardless of SORR. So IMO all the gnashing of teeth regarding current valuations/interest rates is probably noise. He notes that:
He goes on to suggest dynamic spending rules to mitigate SORR risk, a suggestion that many here would endorse.
But overall, this article is an antidote to the pessimism I see regarding Early Retirement. That pessimism is occasional here, but endemic on bogleheads.org. Most of us will end up with multiples of our ER portfolio for our heirs.
There is a really good rationale for the 4% rule. And if you want to be conservative use the 3.8% rule (100% success in 30 years). For 40 years (typical ER planning) 3.5% might make sense, if you are pessimistic enough to ignore SS. But we should leave the 2% and 2.5% and 3% SWR nonsense to the Bogleheads*.
We are early-retirement.org!
* I love John Bogle, may he rest in peace.
https://www.kitces.com/blog/url-ups...eturn-risk-in-retirement-median-final-wealth/
He demonstrates that the 30-year annualized return is not highly correlated with the SWR. Cases with up to 9.5% 30-year returns and 5.5% 30-year returns were able to sustain the 4% SWR regardless of SORR. So IMO all the gnashing of teeth regarding current valuations/interest rates is probably noise. He notes that:
By contrast, while the retiree has only a 10% chance of finishing with less than 100% of their starting principal, they have an equally likely chance of finishing with more than 6X their starting principal as well! In other words, the retiree who starts out with $1M in a portfolio at a 4% initial withdrawal rate is equally likely to finish with less than $1M, or more than $6M, after 30 years! And just as the portfolio winds down to $0 in the one worst scenario… it also finishes at more than $9M in the one best historical scenario!
He goes on to suggest dynamic spending rules to mitigate SORR risk, a suggestion that many here would endorse.
But overall, this article is an antidote to the pessimism I see regarding Early Retirement. That pessimism is occasional here, but endemic on bogleheads.org. Most of us will end up with multiples of our ER portfolio for our heirs.
There is a really good rationale for the 4% rule. And if you want to be conservative use the 3.8% rule (100% success in 30 years). For 40 years (typical ER planning) 3.5% might make sense, if you are pessimistic enough to ignore SS. But we should leave the 2% and 2.5% and 3% SWR nonsense to the Bogleheads*.
We are early-retirement.org!
* I love John Bogle, may he rest in peace.
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