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12-26-2022, 10:35 AM
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#1
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: South Texas~29N/98W Just West of Woman Hollering Creek
Posts: 6,674
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Vanguard 2023 Outlook
VG admits to large prediction error. Making accurate forecasts in financial markets is a crap shoot, isn't it?
 Quote:
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We now expect U.S. bonds to return 4.1%–5.1% per year over the next decade, compared with the 1.4%–2.4% annual returns we forecast a year ago.
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https://investor.vanguard.com/invest...RP=RT044708435
__________________
Part-Owner of Texas
Outside of a dog, a book is man's best friend. Inside of a dog, it's too dark to read. Groucho Marx
In dire need of: faster horses, younger woman, older whiskey, more money.
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12-27-2022, 02:54 AM
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#2
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Leeward Oahu
Posts: 17,914
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I don't pay much attention to predictions. I just stick with my plan. It's w*rked for 17 years so far. No guarantees, of course, so YMMV.
__________________
Ko'olau's Law -
Anything which can be used can be misused. Anything which can be misused will be.
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12-27-2022, 03:30 AM
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#3
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeyd
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Note how Vanguard's outlook is more pessimistic than the consensus.
GDP Growth: 0.25%-0.5% vs. 0.9%
Unemployment: 4.4% vs. 4.4%
Inflation: 3% vs. 2.4%
Fed fund rate: 4.5% vs. N/A
About the future bond return of 4.1-5.1%, after taking out the higher inflation that's only 1.1%-2.1% real return. This would not be outrageous.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
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12-27-2022, 04:35 AM
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#4
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: Reading, MA
Posts: 1,795
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How did their predictions go for each of the past 5-10 years?
I'd want to know that first...
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12-27-2022, 04:58 AM
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#5
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2015
Location: Michigan
Posts: 5,003
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheWizard
How did their predictions go for each of the past 5-10 years?
I'd want to know that first...
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+1
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"The mountains are calling, and I must go." John Muir
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12-27-2022, 06:32 AM
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#6
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 38,143
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeyd
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Of course predictions change when the financial landscape changes and 2022 had huge changes.
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Retired since summer 1999.
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12-27-2022, 06:41 AM
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#7
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: NC
Posts: 21,303
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheWizard
How did their predictions go for each of the past 5-10 years?
I'd want to know that first...
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No one gets economic predictions right consistently, Vanguard included. Predictions are right on an exception basis.
__________________
No one agrees with other people's opinions; they merely agree with their own opinions -- expressed by somebody else. Sydney Tremayne
Retired Jun 2011 at age 57
Target AA: 50% equity funds / 45% bonds / 5% cash
Target WR: Approx 1.5% Approx 20% SI (secure income, SS only)
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