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Dow 36,000!
Old 06-08-2021, 01:22 PM   #21
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Dow 36,000!

Dow 36,000! Twenty + years later we are still not at 36k. One day it will be true!

"Dow 36,000: The New Strategy for Profiting From the Coming Rise in the Stock Market is a 1999 book by syndicated columnist James K. Glassman and economist Kevin A. Hassett,[1][2] in which they argued that stocks in 1999 were significantly undervalued and concluded that there would be a fourfold market increase with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) rising to 36,000 by 2002 or 2004."
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Old 06-08-2021, 02:13 PM   #22
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Originally Posted by Gunny View Post
I just read this article which makes a case for a very bullish forecast over the next decade plus for the S&P 500. This brought on by the millennials hitting peak earning/consumption years.
Millennials still have massive student loans to pay off. Don't believe anyone's forecast (bullish or bearish). The "experts" are no better than you or I at predicting the future.
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Old 06-08-2021, 04:37 PM   #23
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I follow Brian Belski, Chief Investment Strategist for BMO Capital Markets.
FWIW, he's been saying since ~2012 that we're embarking on/in the midst of a 20 year secular bull in the US markets. Too many articles to list, can just google "Brian Belski secular bull." Many reference strong balance sheets and earnings growth.

While he hasn't been perfect in his annual forecasts due to everything that can side-swipe markets in the shorter term, his secular bullish messaging has been pretty consistent over the past decade even through a lot of bearish sentiment and the various concerns of the day.
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Old 06-08-2021, 04:57 PM   #24
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Millennials still have massive student loans to pay off. Don't believe anyone's forecast (bullish or bearish). The "experts" are no better than you or I at predicting the future.
The experts are the ones who are investing in the market long term. Investing since the early 1990s, it allowed me to FIRE a few years ago.
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Old 06-08-2021, 06:01 PM   #25
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Originally Posted by flintnational View Post
Dow 36,000! Twenty + years later we are still not at 36k. One day it will be true!

"Dow 36,000: The New Strategy for Profiting From the Coming Rise in the Stock Market is a 1999 book by syndicated columnist James K. Glassman and economist Kevin A. Hassett,[1][2] in which they argued that stocks in 1999 were significantly undervalued and concluded that there would be a fourfold market increase with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) rising to 36,000 by 2002 or 2004."
Kevin Hassett - another brilliant guy
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Old 06-09-2021, 09:43 AM   #26
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I too believe Demographics is Destiny. Plus the articles outcomes are what I'm hoping for. So all in all this is the prognostication of the month.
But, of course, Nobody knows nuthin'

Good article, thanks for the link.
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Old 06-09-2021, 09:58 AM   #27
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Harry Dent is that you?

I had to check the article to make sure it wasn’t Harry Dent.
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Old 06-09-2021, 11:46 AM   #28
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Harry Dent is that you?

I had to check the article to make sure it wasn’t Harry Dent.
Wish I had used the Harry Dent portfolio starting twenty years ago...ka-ching!

https://retireearlyhomepage.com/reallife21.html
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Old 06-11-2021, 04:55 PM   #29
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Originally Posted by Gunny View Post
I just read this article which makes a case for a very bullish forecast over the next decade plus for the S&P 500. This brought on by the millennials hitting peak earning/consumption years.
All-aboard!!

Questions:
1. How do you think the large population of baby boomers retiring will affect the market?
2. Thinking lots of boomers/FIRE selling stocks... will it be balanced out by younger ages buying into the market?
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Flip a coin
Old 06-11-2021, 04:59 PM   #30
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Flip a coin

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I just read this article which makes a case for a very bullish forecast over the next decade plus for the S&P 500.
As with all forecasts, there is a 50% chance they will be right.
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Old 06-11-2021, 05:26 PM   #31
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All-aboard!!

Questions:
1. How do you think the large population of baby boomers retiring will affect the market?
2. Thinking lots of boomers/FIRE selling stocks... will it be balanced out by younger ages buying into the market?
Boomers donít sell all their stocks when they retire. Boomers have already been retiring for a long time now.
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Old 06-11-2021, 05:41 PM   #32
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Yup. I've been selling as I need to fund my retirement but no more than needed each year.
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Old 06-11-2021, 05:46 PM   #33
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Boomers may not need to sell much stock. Boomers sell options on their stocks, and the option premium already gets them more money than they spend.

And boomers still like to count their money.
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Old 06-12-2021, 04:43 AM   #34
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Originally Posted by Gunny View
I just read this article which makes a case for a very bullish forecast over the next decade plus for the S&P 500.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ychuck46 View Post
As with all forecasts, there is a 50% chance they will be right.
Do not remember the exact numbers but isn't the average crash in the market around 14-18 months?

If that's the case, there is a good chance (POSSIBILITY) the market will be bullish the next decade.
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Old 06-12-2021, 05:32 AM   #35
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https://www.theatlantic.com/sponsore...trending/1109/

Another article discussing the fact that the millennials are the largest generation now and are entering their peak spending years.
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Very bullish forecast
Old 06-12-2021, 07:44 AM   #36
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Very bullish forecast

Things look quite different if an investor takes a 20+ year, global perspective. That perspective includes many more known and unknown elements that will surely make some things zig and other things zag, all around the world, while having basic confidence that a growing global population will be reflected in a growing portfolio.

Iím Gen X and love me some Millennials, finding them an impressive generation, but I see no reason to bet my fortunes too heavily on what they do.
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Old 06-12-2021, 08:54 AM   #37
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Things look quite different if an investor takes a 20+ year, global perspective. That perspective includes many more known and unknown elements that will surely make some things zig and other things zag, all around the world, while having basic confidence that a growing global population will be reflected in a growing portfolio. ...
This.

Warren Buffett: "Only buy something that you'd be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for 10 years."
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Old 06-12-2021, 09:28 AM   #38
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Another article discussing the fact that the millennials are the largest generation now and are entering their peak spending years.
Sending positive mental vibes that millennials are investing their money smartly and safely in the market!
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Old 06-12-2021, 12:40 PM   #39
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https://www.theatlantic.com/sponsore...trending/1109/

Another article discussing the fact that the millennials are the largest generation now and are entering their peak spending years.

Balancing the good news above is an article I just saw today.

Quote:
More American males aged 25-34 are living in a parent’s home, and fewer are participating in the labor force.
The article then shows a chart depicting a steady increase of young men staying at home increasing to 21% in 2020, and those not working at about 17.5%.

Note that the above statistics are for men only, and do not include young women. It comes from the Conference Board.

The article ends up with:

Quote:
“About half of prime age men who are not in the labor force may have a serious health condition that is a barrier to working,” the late Princeton economist Alan Krueger wrote in the Brookings Papers on Economic Activity in 2017.

Added Krueger: “Nearly half of prime age men who are not in the labor force take pain medication on any given day; and in nearly two-thirds of these cases, they take prescription pain medication.”

The data points to a strengthening dichotomy between the millennials doing well with a high-tech job vs. the ones not finding gainful employment. And the rate of those taking pain killers is worrisome.

See: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mark...cid=uxbndlbing
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