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Very bullish forecast
Old 06-07-2021, 04:36 AM   #1
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Very bullish forecast

I just read this article which makes a case for a very bullish forecast over the next decade plus for the S&P 500. This brought on by the millennials hitting peak earning/consumption years.

https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-outlook-sp500-soar-400-percent-2038-millennials-economy-2021-6?amp

This is certainly in stark contrast to what many analysts and pundits have been saying about the market's future, not to expect gains over 5% annually.

Although I certainly wish for such lofty gains as outlined in the article, my gut tells me to temper expectations.
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Old 06-07-2021, 05:23 AM   #2
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I hope he's right; an annual gain over 9% would be nice. I wonder what he predicts for inflation.
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Old 06-07-2021, 05:43 AM   #3
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Seems like the surging housing market is already feeling Millennialsí consumption strength.
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Old 06-07-2021, 07:59 AM   #4
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Millennials are the biggest population group, surpassing boomers.

Thatís good news for growth, IMO.
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Old 06-07-2021, 08:45 AM   #5
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While I would like to see the results in the article, it really doesn't seem much different than the long term market performance. Throw in a little supply vs demand due to the number of millennials to help that some. Will still be the normal volatility in short term, but a net rise in the market over time is to be expected.

In the end, for long term money the market has always been a good choice. The article just confirms that.
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Old 06-07-2021, 08:57 AM   #6
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You have to love the chattering classes. Any economic forecast you like, from the deepest depression to market heaven is available for the cost of a few keystrokes. Combine that with a dose of confirmation bias and anyone can be happy.

The Latin maxim ignoramus et ignorabimus, means "we do not know and will not know."
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Very bullish forecast
Old 06-07-2021, 09:03 AM   #7
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Very bullish forecast

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Originally Posted by OldShooter View Post
You have to love the chattering classes. Any economic forecast you like, from the deepest depression to market heaven is available for the cost of a few keystrokes. Combine that with a dose of confirmation bias and anyone can be happy.

The Latin maxim ignoramus et ignorabimus, means "we do not know and will not know."


+1. Latin for ďNobody knows nuthin.Ē
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Old 06-07-2021, 07:35 PM   #8
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The perpetual motion machine has finally been successfully invented.
The market will keep going up and up indefinitely.
This time is different.
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Old 06-07-2021, 07:41 PM   #9
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This time is different.

Uh ohÖtake it back please!!!!
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Old 06-07-2021, 07:49 PM   #10
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The impact of years of double digit inflation....
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Old 06-07-2021, 09:06 PM   #11
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It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.
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Old 06-07-2021, 09:17 PM   #12
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Originally Posted by tulak View Post
Millennials are the biggest population group, surpassing boomers.

Thatís good news for growth, IMO.
I agree.
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Old 06-08-2021, 12:01 AM   #13
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I wonder what Jack Bogle would say if he was still alive. He was predicting a much lower rate of return...
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Old 06-08-2021, 05:10 AM   #14
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Nice if it happens. If you plan for it to not happen, you are good either way.
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Very bullish forecast
Old 06-08-2021, 05:59 AM   #15
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Very bullish forecast

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Originally Posted by DrRoy View Post
Nice if it happens. If you plan for it to not happen, you are good either way.


+1. That article necessitates an average of 21%+ annual stock returns for the next 17 years. Iím not taking that bet, however, Iím comfortable expecting normal, historic, lumpy returns over such a long period.
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Old 06-08-2021, 06:37 AM   #16
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I think it depends if they can keep inflation low and therefore interest rates low. It was my experience that high interest rates kill the stock market.
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Old 06-08-2021, 07:00 AM   #17
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I wonder what Jack Bogle would say if he was still alive. He was predicting a much lower rate of return...

Everybody has been predicting lower rates of return for the last decade.

I suspect the future will be much like the past, unless SHTF. Since I canít really plan for that - or at least choose not to - Iíll stick with my equity heavy AA and enjoy the ride.
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Old 06-08-2021, 08:53 AM   #18
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Copying and pasting the link doesn’t seem to be working and without a title I can’t search for the article.

Never mind I figured out to cut the question mark and after. https://markets.businessinsider.com/...1-6-1030497500

I notice the chart predicts a decline after 2018. Didn’t really happen.
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Old 06-08-2021, 11:35 AM   #19
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Uh ohÖtake it back please!!!!
We are still okay. No magical word from W2R.
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Old 06-08-2021, 12:41 PM   #20
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I see no problem with the market. What else are you going to buy, bonds? CD's?
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