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06-07-2021, 04:36 AM
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#1
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Oct 2013
Location: Sweet Home Alabama
Posts: 124
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Very bullish forecast
I just read this article which makes a case for a very bullish forecast over the next decade plus for the S&P 500. This brought on by the millennials hitting peak earning/consumption years.
https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-outlook-sp500-soar-400-percent-2038-millennials-economy-2021-6?amp
This is certainly in stark contrast to what many analysts and pundits have been saying about the market's future, not to expect gains over 5% annually.
Although I certainly wish for such lofty gains as outlined in the article, my gut tells me to temper expectations.
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06-07-2021, 05:23 AM
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#2
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 880
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I hope he's right; an annual gain over 9% would be nice. I wonder what he predicts for inflation.
__________________
"It is better to have a permanent income than to be fascinating". Oscar Wilde
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06-07-2021, 05:43 AM
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#3
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Nov 2013
Location: Twin Cities
Posts: 3,927
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Seems like the surging housing market is already feeling Millennials’ consumption strength.
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06-07-2021, 07:59 AM
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#4
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 2,851
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Millennials are the biggest population group, surpassing boomers.
That’s good news for growth, IMO.
__________________
Eat, Drink and Be Merry.
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06-07-2021, 08:45 AM
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#5
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Sep 2013
Location: Cincinnati, OH
Posts: 4,344
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While I would like to see the results in the article, it really doesn't seem much different than the long term market performance. Throw in a little supply vs demand due to the number of millennials to help that some. Will still be the normal volatility in short term, but a net rise in the market over time is to be expected.
In the end, for long term money the market has always been a good choice. The article just confirms that.
__________________
The problem isn't artificial intelligence, it's natural stupidity.
You can't spend yourself to prosperity.
Semi-Retired 7/1/16: working part-time (60%) for now [4/24/17 changed to 80%]
Retired Aug 2, 2017; age 53
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06-07-2021, 08:57 AM
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#6
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: City
Posts: 10,308
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You have to love the chattering classes. Any economic forecast you like, from the deepest depression to market heaven is available for the cost of a few keystrokes. Combine that with a dose of confirmation bias and anyone can be happy.
The Latin maxim ignoramus et ignorabimus, means "we do not know and will not know."
__________________
Ignoramus et ignorabimus
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06-07-2021, 09:03 AM
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#7
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Nov 2013
Location: Twin Cities
Posts: 3,927
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Very bullish forecast
Quote:
Originally Posted by OldShooter
You have to love the chattering classes. Any economic forecast you like, from the deepest depression to market heaven is available for the cost of a few keystrokes. Combine that with a dose of confirmation bias and anyone can be happy.
The Latin maxim ignoramus et ignorabimus, means "we do not know and will not know."
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+1. Latin for “Nobody knows nuthin.”
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06-07-2021, 07:35 PM
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#8
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 640
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The perpetual motion machine has finally been successfully invented.
The market will keep going up and up indefinitely.
This time is different.
__________________
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"Wealth consists not in having great possessions, but in having few wants."
--Epictetus
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06-07-2021, 07:41 PM
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#9
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: Limerick
Posts: 5,633
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Focus
This time is different.
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Uh oh…take it back please!!!!
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06-07-2021, 07:49 PM
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#10
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: Texas
Posts: 10,836
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The impact of years of double digit inflation....
__________________
20's "something" mind, trapped in a 70's "something" body
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06-07-2021, 09:06 PM
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#11
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: May 2019
Posts: 2,637
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It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.
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06-07-2021, 09:17 PM
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#12
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Nov 2016
Posts: 9,373
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tulak
Millennials are the biggest population group, surpassing boomers.
That’s good news for growth, IMO.
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I agree.
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06-08-2021, 12:01 AM
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#13
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 5,170
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I wonder what Jack Bogle would say if he was still alive. He was predicting a much lower rate of return...
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06-08-2021, 05:10 AM
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#14
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2015
Location: Michigan
Posts: 4,939
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Nice if it happens. If you plan for it to not happen, you are good either way.
__________________
"The mountains are calling, and I must go." John Muir
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06-08-2021, 05:59 AM
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#15
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Nov 2013
Location: Twin Cities
Posts: 3,927
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Very bullish forecast
Quote:
Originally Posted by DrRoy
Nice if it happens. If you plan for it to not happen, you are good either way.
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+1. That article necessitates an average of 21%+ annual stock returns for the next 17 years. I’m not taking that bet, however, I’m comfortable expecting normal, historic, lumpy returns over such a long period.
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06-08-2021, 06:37 AM
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#16
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Feb 2012
Posts: 104
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I think it depends if they can keep inflation low and therefore interest rates low. It was my experience that high interest rates kill the stock market.
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06-08-2021, 07:00 AM
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#17
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 2,851
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tmm99
I wonder what Jack Bogle would say if he was still alive. He was predicting a much lower rate of return...
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Everybody has been predicting lower rates of return for the last decade.
I suspect the future will be much like the past, unless SHTF. Since I can’t really plan for that - or at least choose not to - I’ll stick with my equity heavy AA and enjoy the ride.
__________________
Eat, Drink and Be Merry.
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06-08-2021, 08:53 AM
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#18
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 37,931
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Copying and pasting the link doesn’t seem to be working and without a title I can’t search for the article.
Never mind I figured out to cut the question mark and after. https://markets.businessinsider.com/...1-6-1030497500
I notice the chart predicts a decline after 2018. Didn’t really happen.
__________________
Retired since summer 1999.
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06-08-2021, 11:35 AM
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#19
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Tampa
Posts: 11,197
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dash man
Uh oh…take it back please!!!!
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We are still okay. No magical word from W2R.
__________________
TGIM
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06-08-2021, 12:41 PM
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#20
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2016
Posts: 8,968
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I see no problem with the market. What else are you going to buy, bonds? CD's?
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