Very bullish forecast

[Gunny]

I just read this article which makes a case for a very bullish forecast over the next decade plus for the S&P 500. This brought on by the millennials hitting peak earning/consumption years.

https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-outlook-sp500-soar-400-percent-2038-millennials-economy-2021-6?amp

This is certainly in stark contrast to what many analysts and pundits have been saying about the market's future, not to expect gains over 5% annually.

Although I certainly wish for such lofty gains as outlined in the article, my gut tells me to temper expectations.

 

[racy]

I hope he's right; an annual gain over 9% would be nice. I wonder what he predicts for inflation.

 

[Markola]

Seems like the surging housing market is already feeling Millennials’ consumption strength.

 

[tulak]

Millennials are the biggest population group, surpassing boomers.

That’s good news for growth, IMO.

 

[38Chevy454]

While I would like to see the results in the article, it really doesn't seem much different than the long term market performance. Throw in a little supply vs demand due to the number of millennials to help that some. Will still be the normal volatility in short term, but a net rise in the market over time is to be expected.

In the end, for long term money the market has always been a good choice. The article just confirms that.

 

[OldShooter]

You have to love the chattering classes. Any economic forecast you like, from the deepest depression to market heaven is available for the cost of a few keystrokes. Combine that with a dose of confirmation bias and anyone can be happy.

The Latin maxim ignoramus et ignorabimus, means "we do not know and will not know."

 

[Markola]

You have to love the chattering classes. Any economic forecast you like, from the deepest depression to market heaven is available for the cost of a few keystrokes. Combine that with a dose of confirmation bias and anyone can be happy.

The Latin maxim ignoramus et ignorabimus, means "we do not know and will not know."

+1. Latin for “Nobody knows nuthin.”

 

[Focus]

The perpetual motion machine has finally been successfully invented.
The market will keep going up and up indefinitely.
This time is different.

 

[Dash man]

This time is different.

Uh oh…take it back please!!!!

 

[Car-Guy]

The impact of years of double digit inflation....

 

[GenXguy]

It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.

 

[street]

Millennials are the biggest population group, surpassing boomers.

That’s good news for growth, IMO.

I agree.

 

[tmm99]

I wonder what Jack Bogle would say if he was still alive. He was predicting a much lower rate of return...

 

[DrRoy]

Nice if it happens. If you plan for it to not happen, you are good either way.

 

[Markola]

Nice if it happens. If you plan for it to not happen, you are good either way.

+1. That article necessitates an average of 21%+ annual stock returns for the next 17 years. I’m not taking that bet, however, I’m comfortable expecting normal, historic, lumpy returns over such a long period.

 

[Dwhit]

I think it depends if they can keep inflation low and therefore interest rates low. It was my experience that high interest rates kill the stock market.

 

[tulak]

I wonder what Jack Bogle would say if he was still alive. He was predicting a much lower rate of return...

Everybody has been predicting lower rates of return for the last decade.

I suspect the future will be much like the past, unless SHTF. Since I can’t really plan for that - or at least choose not to - I’ll stick with my equity heavy AA and enjoy the ride.

 

[audreyh1]

Copying and pasting the link doesn’t seem to be working and without a title I can’t search for the article.

Never mind I figured out to cut the question mark and after. https://markets.businessinsider.com...nt-2038-millennials-economy-2021-6-1030497500

I notice the chart predicts a decline after 2018. Didn’t really happen.

 

[Dtail]

Uh oh…take it back please!!!!

We are still okay. No magical word from W2R.

 

[RobbieB]

I see no problem with the market. What else are you going to buy, bonds? CD's?

 

[flintnational]

Dow 36,000!

Dow 36,000! Twenty + years later we are still not at 36k. One day it will be true!

"Dow 36,000: The New Strategy for Profiting From the Coming Rise in the Stock Market is a 1999 book by syndicated columnist James K. Glassman and economist Kevin A. Hassett,[1][2] in which they argued that stocks in 1999 were significantly undervalued and concluded that there would be a fourfold market increase with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) rising to 36,000 by 2002 or 2004."

 

[jldavid47]

I just read this article which makes a case for a very bullish forecast over the next decade plus for the S&P 500. This brought on by the millennials hitting peak earning/consumption years.

Millennials still have massive student loans to pay off. Don't believe anyone's forecast (bullish or bearish). The "experts" are no better than you or I at predicting the future.

 

[YVRRocketSurgery]

I follow Brian Belski, Chief Investment Strategist for BMO Capital Markets.
FWIW, he's been saying since ~2012 that we're embarking on/in the midst of a 20 year secular bull in the US markets. Too many articles to list, can just google "Brian Belski secular bull." Many reference strong balance sheets and earnings growth.

While he hasn't been perfect in his annual forecasts due to everything that can side-swipe markets in the shorter term, his secular bullish messaging has been pretty consistent over the past decade even through a lot of bearish sentiment and the various concerns of the day.

 

[Nick12]

Millennials still have massive student loans to pay off. Don't believe anyone's forecast (bullish or bearish). The "experts" are no better than you or I at predicting the future.

The experts are the ones who are investing in the market long term. Investing since the early 1990s, it allowed me to FIRE a few years ago.

 

[Dtail]

Dow 36,000! Twenty + years later we are still not at 36k. One day it will be true!

"Dow 36,000: The New Strategy for Profiting From the Coming Rise in the Stock Market is a 1999 book by syndicated columnist James K. Glassman and economist Kevin A. Hassett,[1][2] in which they argued that stocks in 1999 were significantly undervalued and concluded that there would be a fourfold market increase with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) rising to 36,000 by 2002 or 2004."

Kevin Hassett - another brilliant guy