Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 02-29-2016, 06:49 AM   #21
Administrator
MichaelB's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Chicagoland
Posts: 40,586
You guys feeling ok? Academy awards get you down?
MichaelB is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 02-29-2016, 06:52 AM   #22
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
REWahoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas: No Country for Old Men
Posts: 50,004
Quote:
Originally Posted by MichaelB View Post
You guys feeling ok? Academy awards get you down?
Stay out of this - unless you are on my side!
__________________
Numbers is hard
REWahoo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-29-2016, 06:54 AM   #23
Administrator
MichaelB's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Chicagoland
Posts: 40,586
Quote:
Originally Posted by REWahoo View Post
Stay out of this - unless you are on my side!
Stay out of what?
MichaelB is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-29-2016, 06:57 AM   #24
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
REWahoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas: No Country for Old Men
Posts: 50,004
Quote:
Originally Posted by MichaelB View Post
Stay out of what?
OK, I get it. You're being disagreeable just to prove a point. Well, it won't work with me.
__________________
Numbers is hard
REWahoo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-29-2016, 07:15 AM   #25
Administrator
MichaelB's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Chicagoland
Posts: 40,586
Quote:
Originally Posted by REWahoo View Post
OK, I get it. You're being disagreeable just to prove a point. Well, it won't work with me.
You work?
MichaelB is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-29-2016, 07:17 AM   #26
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
REWahoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas: No Country for Old Men
Posts: 50,004
Quote:
Originally Posted by MichaelB View Post
You work?
Argumentative. I'm not going there.
__________________
Numbers is hard
REWahoo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-29-2016, 07:19 AM   #27
Administrator
MichaelB's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Chicagoland
Posts: 40,586
Quote:
Originally Posted by REWahoo View Post
Argumentative. I'm not going there.
What does that have to do with kittens?

Quote:
Originally Posted by travelover View Post
I have one, too. I use it to watch kitten videos and argue with strangers on the internet.
MichaelB is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-29-2016, 07:23 AM   #28
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
REWahoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas: No Country for Old Men
Posts: 50,004
Quote:
Originally Posted by MichaelB View Post
What does that have to do with kittens?
Sigh. Trying to avoid the question by changing the subject. Typical.
__________________
Numbers is hard
REWahoo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-29-2016, 07:34 AM   #29
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Markola's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Location: Twin Cities
Posts: 3,930
Quote:
Originally Posted by Amethyst View Post
Logic aside, there must be some reason why today's millennial crop of workers are fiercely wedded to the belief that their parents and grandparents had it better than they do.

My "company"'s internal social media, where many highly-educated young workers hang out, makes this clear. They moan and groan about student loans, which they're looking for somebody to take off their backs, and cite Internet memes such as "Old Economy Steve" (who is roughly my age, apparently, yet lived in a world I don't recognize) to support their fetish.

They may have it "worse" in some ways, but I doubt anybody my age would hesitate to change places with them. Just sayin'.

Amethyst
I'm Gen-X and have had several Millennials on my teams and am generally quite impressed. Like everyone, if one wants to eat, one goes to work. However, Millennials assume, and take full advantage of, geographic and temporal flexibility for work, because that's really the sea they swim in. Technology and globalization (and abundant debt-availability) gave them their world, and it's different than the factory mindset of older generations and the farm mindset of ones before that. Is there any theme older than one generation scratching their heads at the younger generation? Buffet seems to say, "Meh, get over it because their future America is going to be even richer than yours". I hope I can live long enough to FIRE and enjoy it!
Markola is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 02-29-2016, 08:07 AM   #30
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Senator's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Williston, FL
Posts: 3,925
Buffet is correct, Society as a whole will be better off.

The bottom end of the income scale has never had it so good. The top end of the income scale has also never had it so good.

There is that pesky middle class that gets in the way...
__________________
FIRE no later than 7/5/2016 at 56 (done), securing '16 401K match (done), getting '15 401K match (done), LTI Bonus (done), Perf bonus (done), maxing out 401K (done), picking up 1,000 hours to get another year of pension (done), July 1st benefits (vacation day, healthcare) (done), July 4th holiday. 0 days left. (done) OFFICIALLY RETIRED 7/5/2016!!
Senator is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-29-2016, 08:11 AM   #31
Administrator
MichaelB's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Chicagoland
Posts: 40,586
Quote:
Originally Posted by REWahoo View Post
Sigh. Trying to avoid the question by changing the subject. Typical.
And you're questioning the subject by avoiding the change. So trying.
MichaelB is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-29-2016, 08:20 AM   #32
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
REWahoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas: No Country for Old Men
Posts: 50,004
Quote:
Originally Posted by MichaelB View Post
And you're questioning the subject by avoiding the change. So trying.
This is useless. I'm going to quit now and let you have the last word, knowing it will be misinformed, incorrect and off topic - again.
__________________
Numbers is hard
REWahoo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-29-2016, 08:34 AM   #33
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Gone4Good's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 5,381
Quote:
Originally Posted by Amethyst View Post
Logic aside, there must be some reason why today's millennial crop of workers are fiercely wedded to the belief that their parents and grandparents had it better than they do.

My "company"'s internal social media, where many highly-educated young workers hang out, makes this clear. They moan and groan about student loans, which they're looking for somebody to take off their backs, and cite Internet memes such as "Old Economy Steve" (who is roughly my age, apparently, yet lived in a world I don't recognize) to support their fetish.

They may have it "worse" in some ways, but I doubt anybody my age would hesitate to change places with them. Just sayin'.

Amethyst
I wouldn't so lightly dismiss the complaints of a group of people who graduated into one of the worst job markets since the 1920s with a mountain of debt they assumed would be paid off from career track jobs that never materialized.

It's easy in hindsight to say that they never should have borrowed so much. But the conventional wisdom of the time was that students should go to the best school they could possibly get into and that they'd be richly rewarded for it - regardless of what they studied.

It turns out, that was bad advice. But it was advice that worked splendidly for the previous generation. So it's probably unfair to blame teenagers for not seeing the coming changes in the labor market that no one else saw coming either.

Meanwhile, whether you enter a good labor market or a bad one in your youth has a huge impact on lifetime earnings. A person who has the misfortune of starting their career during a recession will earn less on average over their lifetimes than a person who started a few years earlier or later.

They're also a generation who thinks they'll spend their lifetime paying for social security and Medicare but not get it for themselves- which is probably at least partly true.

So I'd say some of their complaints have merit.
__________________
Retired early, traveling perpetually.
Gone4Good is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-29-2016, 12:17 PM   #34
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jun 2014
Posts: 1,069
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gone4Good View Post
I agree with the letter generally, but Buffett seems to understate the root problem that is causing so much anger and angst. The link between productivity growth and wage growth has been broken for a very long time.



So, yes, even at 2% growth the nation as a whole will be much richer in the future. But we can't assume based on the past 40 years of experience that most folks will be happy with that outcome if we don't also find a way to fix the above chart.

So whats the implication of that chart which one should walk away with? The break was due to the gold standard and fiat currency?


Sent from my iPhone using Early Retirement Forum
dallas27 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-29-2016, 12:29 PM   #35
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
travelover's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 14,328
Quote:
Originally Posted by REWahoo View Post
This is useless. I'm going to quit now and let you have the last word, knowing it will be misinformed, incorrect and off topic - again.
Your avatar is dumb and you misspelled a word.
travelover is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-29-2016, 12:33 PM   #36
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Apr 2015
Posts: 100
Can we get a Mod in here to break up some thread-jacking by mods?
AnonEMouse is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-29-2016, 12:34 PM   #37
Administrator
MichaelB's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Chicagoland
Posts: 40,586
Did someone call?
MichaelB is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-29-2016, 12:44 PM   #38
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Apr 2015
Posts: 100
Quote:
Originally Posted by dallas27 View Post
So whats the implication of that chart which one should walk away with? The break was due to the gold standard and fiat currency?


Sent from my iPhone using Early Retirement Forum
It looks like it implies that since 1973 it pays better to be a holder of Capital, not Labor. Great for those exiting and have amassed mountains of Capital, not so great for those entering the job market.
AnonEMouse is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-29-2016, 01:05 PM   #39
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Gone4Good's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 5,381
Quote:
Originally Posted by dallas27 View Post
So whats the implication of that chart which one should walk away with? The break was due to the gold standard and fiat currency?
If you read the Buffet quote that started this thread he breaks 2% real GDP growth down into two pieces. There's 0.8% population growth and 1.2% growth from "something else." He argues that over 25 years that 1.2% of growth from "something else" will compound into meaningful real income gains of 34%.

What's left unsaid in the quote is that the 1.2% of "something else" comes from productivity gains.

The chart shows that those productivity gains have not translated into higher wages for the past 40 years.

So unless we think that's going to change going forward, it's not clear how Buffet's caveat in bold below doesn't present a major obstacle to his thesis.

Quote:
that 34.4% gain will produce a staggering $19,000 increase in real GDP per capita for the next generation. Were that to be distributed equally, the gain would be $76,000 annually for a family of four. Today’s politicians need not shed tears for tomorrow’s children.
__________________
Retired early, traveling perpetually.
Gone4Good is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-29-2016, 01:47 PM   #40
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
samclem's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: SW Ohio
Posts: 14,404
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gone4Good View Post
What's left unsaid in the quote is that the 1.2% of "something else" comes from productivity gains.

The chart shows that those productivity gains have not translated into higher wages for the past 40 years.

So unless we think that's going to change going forward, it's not clear how Buffet's caveat in bold below doesn't present a major obstacle to his thesis.
Those wage earners would do well to find a way to benefit from that productivity growth as a way of hedging their bets if real wage growth stays flat and GDP continues to grow at a (relatively) quicker rate than wages. That's not happening much right now (and hasn't in a while) if the US savings rate is any indication. Can young workers save, or are their incomes just too low for that? Are they "poor" in an absolute sense, or a relative sense? If they compare their incomes to that of their parents (after their 30+ years in the workforce) they likely feel poor. One thing's for sure--if they save at the rates their parents did (on average), their future may be one of reduced prosperity.
samclem is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
"Warren Buffett goes broke!" Nords Other topics 0 12-10-2006 11:45 AM
"Warren Buffett's gotta die someday, right?" Nords FIRE and Money 24 11-13-2006 10:39 AM
Warren Buffett gives away his fortune REWahoo Other topics 27 07-06-2006 01:08 PM
Warren Buffett REWahoo FIRE and Money 8 03-04-2006 08:31 PM
Wikipedia entry on Warren Buffett Jay_Gatsby FIRE and Money 0 07-16-2005 12:46 PM

» Quick Links

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 06:37 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.