We are entering a "Golden Period" for fixed income investing

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I would relax. We will see many more issues either non-callable, make whole call, or callable with extended call periods like the one today from RBC. These retail issues are relatively small in size and are issued frequently. In two weeks the fed will raise the Fed funds rate another 25 basis points which will increase yields on short term treasuries and ripple through short duration corporate notes and money market funds.
 
Freedom56 said:
I would relax. We will see many more issues either non-callable, make whole call, or callable with extended call periods like the one today from RBC. These retail issues are relatively small in size and are issued frequently. In two weeks the fed will raise the Fed funds rate another 25 basis points which will increase yields on short term treasuries and ripple through short duration corporate notes and money market funds.
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Yep, I'm relaxed. :flowers:

I'm with you in the camp that we will again see rates go up. It might be six months, a year, or whatever but in the meantime I'm getting 4.27% on a MM, have a bunch of T-Bills in the 4.5-4.9% range, some preferred I picked up early December through early January which are in the 5.0-5.9% range AND which I have gains on (as they have moved up in January), so no rush on this at all. I keep saying to myself "patience grasshopper".
 
Fermion said:
Somehow I don't think inflation is nearly over. Time will tell.
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Not over but trending in the right direction? Some credible sources are saying 3-3.5% by the end of 2023, barring geopolitical upsets?

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Midpack said:
Not over but trending in the right direction? Some credible sources are saying 3-3.5% by the end of 2023, barring geopolitical upsets?

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Last 6 month trend is under . 5%. Yes under half a percent.

So yes, as Ken Fisher said a couple of days ago, "Inflation is deader than a doornail. Only the doornail doesn't know it."
 
The view from the number one banker in this country.

"Jamie Dimon says rates will rise above 5% because there is still ‘a lot of underlying inflation’"

"Dimon said the recent easing of inflation comes from temporary factors such as a pullback in oil prices and a slowdown in China due to the pandemic.

“We’ve had the benefit of China’s slowing down, the benefit of oil prices dropping a little bit,” Dimon said. “I think oil gas prices probably go up the next 10 years ... China isn’t going to be deflationary anymore.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/19/jam...e-is-still-a-lot-of-underlying-inflation.html
 
^^^^ currently rates are not reflecting this. But he is interesting, though he is all over the map. And hyperbolic. In the summer he predicted an "economic hurricane" and oil prices at $150-200 per barrel due to war in Ukraine.

Not seeing any of that.
 
Montecfo said:
Last 6 month trend is under . 5%. Yes under half a percent.

So yes, as Ken Fisher said a couple of days ago, "Inflation is deader than a doornail. Only the doornail doesn't know it."
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Montecfo - I am not sure what you mean when you say the "TREND" is under 0.5%...

Are you saying that the SLOPE of the curve is -0.5%/month?

I am glad to see the downward move, but, I think that the y-axis scale shown on the chart makes things look better than they are. The chart needs to be displayed with y-axis from -2 to 10.

We aren't NEAR 2% yet. I hope the FED holds down the pedal for now.
 
Born2Fish said:
Montecfo - I am not sure what you mean when you say the "TREND" is under 0.5%...



Are you saying that the SLOPE of the curve is -0.5%/month?



I am glad to see the downward move, but, I think that the y-axis scale shown on the chart makes things look better than they are. The chart needs to be displayed with y-axis from -2 to 10.



We aren't NEAR 2% yet. I hope the FED holds down the pedal for now.
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Percentage change in the CPI index since June, annualized.

Stated differently, almost all the reported inflation in the headline CPI number happened over 6 months ago.

This is determined by looking at the actual index figures, not a chart of the annual figures.
 
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Montecfo said:
Percentage change in the CPI index since June, annualized.

Stated differently, almost all the reported inflation in the headline CPI number happened over 6 months ago.

This is determined by looking at the actual index figures, not a chart of the annual figures.
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Yes, and the recent decline in inflation that Montecfo refers to is why many of us following IBonds rates expect the May 2023 inflation rate component to be very low, and make IBonds less attractive once the current 6.48% period runs off.
 
Just had a 6.45% agency bond called. Glad it’s now when I can still find some decent yield yet.
 
Jim Cramer is ranting about "A bailout loan from the Federal Home Loan Bank for a crypto bank"

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/not-business-usual-jim-cramer-130000924.html

"Silvergate received $4.3 billion from the Federal Home Loan Bank of San Francisco late last year, company filings show. The billions in liquidity provided by the FHLB in the fourth quarter alone helped La Jolla, Calif.,-based Silvergate stave off a further run on deposits. The crypto-friendly bank now holds roughly $4.6 billion in cash — the bulk of which came from Home Loan Bank advances, according to select financial metrics that Silvergate released last week."

Why is FHLB loaning $4.3 billion to Silvergate bank (a crypto bank)?

(I am holding a chunk of FHLB agency bond, Cusip 3130AUBN3).

I am not trying to shift the focus of this thread, just thought it was relevant to FHLB investment.
 
I have both the 6% 10 year with 2 year call protection and will have the 5.2% 10 year with 5 years of call protection after the order executes. It will become a case study to see which one in the end turns out to be a better investment.

We are likely to see more issues with call protection extended.
 
Freedom56 said:
I have both the 6% 10 year with 2 year call protection and will have the 5.2% 10 year with 5 years of call protection after the order executes. It will become a case study to see which one in the end turns out to be a better investment.

We are likely to see more issues with call protection extended.
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I did the same thing. Indeed, it will be interesting to see how these get called.
 
Born2Fish said:
Jim Cramer is ranting about "A bailout loan from the Federal Home Loan Bank for a crypto bank"

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/not-business-usual-jim-cramer-130000924.html

"Silvergate received $4.3 billion from the Federal Home Loan Bank of San Francisco late last year, company filings show. The billions in liquidity provided by the FHLB in the fourth quarter alone helped La Jolla, Calif.,-based Silvergate stave off a further run on deposits. The crypto-friendly bank now holds roughly $4.6 billion in cash — the bulk of which came from Home Loan Bank advances, according to select financial metrics that Silvergate released last week."

Why is FHLB loaning $4.3 billion to Silvergate bank (a crypto bank)?

(I am holding a chunk of FHLB agency bond, Cusip 3130AUBN3).

I am not trying to shift the focus of this thread, just thought it was relevant to FHLB investment.
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Interesting. Not alarmed yet but let's see what their 10-K looks like. Link to the Bank's 3Q22 10-Q
 
Born2Fish said:
Jim Cramer is ranting about "A bailout loan from the Federal Home Loan Bank for a crypto bank"

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/not-business-usual-jim-cramer-130000924.html

"Silvergate received $4.3 billion from the Federal Home Loan Bank of San Francisco late last year, company filings show. The billions in liquidity provided by the FHLB in the fourth quarter alone helped La Jolla, Calif.,-based Silvergate stave off a further run on deposits. The crypto-friendly bank now holds roughly $4.6 billion in cash — the bulk of which came from Home Loan Bank advances, according to select financial metrics that Silvergate released last week."

Why is FHLB loaning $4.3 billion to Silvergate bank (a crypto bank)?

(I am holding a chunk of FHLB agency bond, Cusip 3130AUBN3).

I am not trying to shift the focus of this thread, just thought it was relevant to FHLB investment.
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WTF:confused: I own some FHLB bonds. I've been trying to totally avoid exposure to crypto crap and now I find out the Federal Home Loan Bank is lending money to shaky banks that have major crypto exposure? No wonder interest rates on FHLB bonds are so high. And S&P has the bonds rated AA+ and Moody's Aaa? Shades of 2007...
 
FWIW todays 10 year TIPS auction came in with a fixed 1.125% and a price of 99. A little off the recent high real yields. Evidently people are seeking inflation havens. When every ordinary Joe hops aboard and rates fall near zero I'll quit buying. Hopefully after I fill out my ladder.
 
foxfirev5 said:
FWIW todays 10 year TIPS auction came in with a fixed 1.125% and a price of 99. A little off the recent high real yields. Evidently people are seeking inflation havens. When every ordinary Joe hops aboard and rates fall near zero I'll quit buying. Hopefully after I fill out my ladder.
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These have not been great investments for quite a long time. I think they still have a place especially for people who want to ladder spending to the future with a known real return.

I own a modest number of 5 year bonds.
 
Montecfo said:
These have not been great investments for quite a long time. I think they still have a place especially for people who want to ladder spending to the future with a known real return.

I own a modest number of 5 year bonds.
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Yeah, about as close to bonds for ballast as I'll get. As long as I can get 1% real I'll build the ladder.
 
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