I was wondering. To follow a 4% SWR with a 3% inflation rate what asset allocation would be the minimum to get one there. 50/50. 60/40 etc. Assume 40+ years of retirement and no loss of principal.
Why not model different asset allocations using FIRECalc and see how they endure over 40 years?I was wondering. To follow a 4% SWR with a 3% inflation rate what asset allocation would be the minimum to get one there. 50/50. 60/40 etc. Assume 40+ years of retirement and no loss of principal.
Why not model different asset allocations using FIRECalc and see how they endure over 40 years?
so then the 4% rule is basically BS.
Yeah, it was written as a gag, by a bunch of guys high on LSD. http://afcpe.org/assets/pdf/vol1014.pdf, Maybe a brief read of this will help.
Trying to figure out if you are trolling, or something else. Nobody here that I've seen says that you can draw 4% for 40+ years with guaranteed success of not even losing principle. If Mr. MM says that, go over there and shoot it down, not here.
Did that. Looked good. But in most cases I had less than I started at 40 to 50 years and at 20 years I had much less. This was true even if I reduced WR.
There are many who advocate 4% withdrawl. Some like Mr. mm say you will never run through your principal at 4%. I think they are selling their brand.
Did that. Looked good. But in most cases I had less than I started at 40 to 50 years and at 20 years I had much less. This was true even if I reduced WR.Why not model different asset allocations using FIRECalc and see how they endure over 40 years?
There are many who advocate 4% withdrawl. Some like Mr. mm say you will never run through your principal at 4%. I think they are selling their brand.
Perhaps you need to read and learn before concluding. Google "Trinity study". Going from memory, the study was based on 30 years... typical retirement age at the time (1998) was 65 and few 65 year olds lived to age 95. Also, there were some failures... ~5% IIRC. So what it concluded is that there was a high likelihood of a 65 year old not running out of money with a 4% WR.
I think that conclusion still holds. If you model firecalc with a 4% WR for 30 years and a 60/40 AA it returns a 95.7% success rate. (50/50 is 94.8%).
However, you are significantly changing the parameters, by adding 10 years.... reduces success rate from 95.7% to 80.4%
Also, don't forget that in all cases the 4% is adjusted for inflation.
The 4% rule assumes you are willing to spend down your principal over a long time. And under the worst case scenarios you will. This is something very important to understand up front!!!so then the 4% rule is basically BS.
40 years at 4% it was 81% success. At 3.45 % it was 96% success rate. No SS included.
Based on history and your parameters, none.
Understand that success = the portfolio did not go to $0 during the time period. That is not the same as preserving principal!For completion sake. I ran firecalc at 4% swr just now. 72% success rate. At 3.45% 95.8% success rate. 60/40 portfolio over 50 years.
40 years at 4% it was 81% success. At 3.45 % it was 96% success rate. No SS included.
Trinity study was for 30 years. The PDF you post is also based on that and Wade P. Also over 30 years. Also, 75% stocks. If you didn't have a pension would you have retired based on those studies?
If you want not to touch your principle, put in a long term CD that earns over 3% and just spend 3%. I think we have people here in ER doing that.