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Old 04-09-2020, 01:37 PM   #81
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On number 2 maybe not have to pay them more but honor what they signed up for as far as a pension.

I'm good with that. As Joe Friday would say when a grateful citizen would try to offer a tip or a gift for solving the crime: "We're not allowed Ma'am. Besides, we cash our paychecks."
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Old 04-09-2020, 02:55 PM   #82
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Like most posting on the thread, I had it reaffirmed that I and DW are very lucky. Also, some relief that I had steadily dialed down the stock fund allocation over the last 2.5 years as the market was going up.

I've defined 40% stock allocation as my low-water point, but I don't mind doing some trading around that on market swings, although these are small changes (no more than 2-3% toward more cash or to increase stock). I'm assuming we will be seeing continued large volatility swings, at least for the next few months. I today sold between 35- 40% of the gains since the low a couple weeks ago, and don't mind putting most back in stock funds if we drop another 10% or retest the low. This is more for amusement, however.

The drop in municipal bond funds was also an interesting lesson (I've been sitting watching them recover, after some tax loss swapping into hopefully higher quality bond funds), as well as the Fed/Congress bailout of everything.
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Old 04-12-2020, 07:40 AM   #83
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I’m surprised at how complacent everyone here is about this event. The recent stock market bounce back could be a head fake. I’m not saying that it will happen, but this could get much worse. During the Great Depression the stock market dropped 89%. Imagine your nest egg experiencing that kind of drop. As I have retired in last few years and live solely on the nest egg with no pension, protecting the nut is critical. I have significantly reduced my equity exposure and raised cash for peace of mind. Jmho
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Old 04-12-2020, 08:29 AM   #84
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Im surprised at how complacent everyone here is about this event. The recent stock market bounce back could be a head fake.
Totally agreed- we don't know enough about the consequences of the shutdowns, furloughs, bail-outs, etc. and while expected earnings impacts are baked into current stock prices, those are guesses, too. We also don't know how and when this pandemic will end. I'm not assuming a steady upward trajectory from where we are now.

I'm in a different position than you- SS and two small DB pensions are enough to cover the essentials so I can wait it out if things get really bad. I can even switch to SS on my own record and get a bump- I'm getting Survivor Benefits and I'm 67 now, hoping to wait till FRA.
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Old 04-12-2020, 09:11 AM   #85
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Im surprised at how complacent everyone here is about this event. ...
I'm the opposite. I see a huge amount of energy in posts making various predictions about the economy, inflation, etc. To me, predictions are a total waste of time. No one knows the future of the economy and no one ever has known.

I wouldn't use the word "complacency;" I would suggest that the proper attitude should be described by a word like "accepting" -- that some future will happen and we'll just have to wait and see what it is. No point in getting spun up about hypotheticals.

Regarding selling equities or holding tight that is quite another can of worms. We take the inductive logic view and expect that the future will rhyme with history and our equities will recover. But inductive reasoning has also gotten people into trouble. I think you can guess who said this:
"But in all my experience, I have never been in any accident of any sort worth speaking about. I have seen but one vessel in distress in all my years at sea. I never saw a wreck and never have been wrecked nor was I ever in any predicament that threatened to end in disaster of any sort.
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Old 04-12-2020, 09:28 AM   #86
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I’m surprised at how complacent everyone here is about this event. The recent stock market bounce back could be a head fake. I’m not saying that it will happen, but this could get much worse. During the Great Depression the stock market dropped 89%. Imagine your nest egg experiencing that kind of drop. As I have retired in last few years and live solely on the nest egg with no pension, protecting the nut is critical. I have significantly reduced my equity exposure and raised cash for peace of mind. Jmho
Folks may have just been given a brief respite to rearrange some things they don’t like about their portfolio makeup before we go on a long grind down.

Regardless of all the financial backstops put into place, the impact to US economy will be huge, and I find it impossible to believe that at some point a lot more fear and uncertainty won’t be reflected in the markets.
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Old 04-12-2020, 01:21 PM   #87
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It taught me that my father was right and even though he may not have thought so I really did listen. It may have been subliminal but it sank in this bear of very little brain. It also reminded me to continue to weigh all my options before making a decision then listen to me. It has served me will for 70+ years.


Cheers!
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Old 04-12-2020, 08:18 PM   #88
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It's taught me we can have all the $1000 cell phone and 60 something inch TV but our friends and relatives working health care can't get enough $5 masks, gloves and gowns.
The thought that we're prepared as a society has been an illusion. I'll be stock piling a bit more in the future.
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Old 04-12-2020, 10:35 PM   #89
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I’m surprised at how complacent everyone here is about this event. The recent stock market bounce back could be a head fake. I’m not saying that it will happen, but this could get much worse. During the Great Depression the stock market dropped 89%. Imagine your nest egg experiencing that kind of drop. As I have retired in last few years and live solely on the nest egg with no pension, protecting the nut is critical. I have significantly reduced my equity exposure and raised cash for peace of mind. Jmho
I don't really understand the stock market bounces on the short term good news, either. We didn't have a high allocation to stocks but still sold off most of what we had on the bounces. I'm reading news articles like JP Morgan predicting the economy will contract by 40% and unemployment of 20%. A federal reserve bank president has been predicting unemployment of 30%. The 20% - 30% unemployment numbers are Great Depression territory and that was without a pandemic.

I also don't get the logic of telling people to stay home but then not replacing their salaries or freezing all their bills. A one time payment of $1,300 doesn't even cover one month's rent on most apartments in our area. And putting a freeze on evictions isn't a long term solution. At the end of 90 days how are people who haven't been working going to come up with 3 months back rent? We know from financial articles many households live pay check to pay check in the best of times. The food banks here getting overwhelmed with people needing help. One has even been getting help from the National Guard.
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Old 04-14-2020, 03:53 PM   #90
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It has taught me that I am very comfortable with more cash than some models suggest I have too much in cash, doesn't feel that way today.


On top of this pulling down all our portfolios (I assume) my wife ended up in ER (She is fine now) and we received a Subpoena regarding something going on between my neighbors. I just found out I need an attorney to reply. When they say keep an emergency fund that will last a long time, believe it!
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Old 04-14-2020, 04:42 PM   #91
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I am glad to have a high cash position especially since we just retired and no pension or SS right now either and we are essentially living on that cash.


Also to never let my guard down. I thought now retiring and downsizing we would not have to be preppers- food, water, etc. and could keep minimal supplies of things and have a much lower food bill. I thought we could indulge in some things for a change- maybe restaurant meals, travel, entertainment, hobbies and other interests- things we rarely did when working.


Not.
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Old 04-14-2020, 06:06 PM   #92
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I announced my retirement weeks ago exactly one week before all this chaos started. I was hoping to work until 65 (i actually like work), but have had 2 heart operations and need to focus on my health and have been retired now for about 2 weeks. After losing about 20% of my retirement accounts, I thought about continuing to work. I am glad I didn't. I have been working 49 years in the retail world and have been through alot of recessions, etc. My accounts always dropped, but they always came back. Long story short, what I have learned very quickly is not to let FEAR drive my decision making. I spent the last 49 years preparing and saving, and now it's time to enjoy my family including my 6 grandkids.
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Old 04-14-2020, 06:28 PM   #93
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I always said 'do nothing' but I reallocated my IRA. Also sold a loser in my brokerage account. I used to be right. But I'm still ok.

I also learned that I've got wonderful trails literally right over my back fence
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Old 04-14-2020, 11:34 PM   #94
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It has taught me to be more thankful for the trips and cruises that we have taken, even if some seemed a bit excessive/expensive.

As now it looks like it will be a couple of years before any trips across the ponds, and probably 1.3 yrs before any in USA, assuming camp grounds/National Parks open next year.
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Old 04-15-2020, 03:27 AM   #95
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What has this taught me? Stock prices have no basis to reality.
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Old 04-15-2020, 04:05 AM   #96
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I haven't drawn many lessons - yet. I am still observing and experiencing, in the middle of this storm. I have weathered a month - easily - but I will ask myself again after 6 months.
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Old 04-15-2020, 06:53 AM   #97
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I don't really understand the stock market bounces on the short term good news, either. We didn't have a high allocation to stocks but still sold off most of what we had on the bounces. I'm reading news articles like JP Morgan predicting the economy will contract by 40% and unemployment of 20%. A federal reserve bank president has been predicting unemployment of 30%. The 20% - 30% unemployment numbers are Great Depression territory and that was without a pandemic.
It might a classic case of bear market rally that lures investors in and really hurts you later.
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Old 04-15-2020, 11:20 AM   #98
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Sunset, I went from being disappointed about our August trip to Europe to being thankful for the trips I made there and the cruises .
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Old 04-15-2020, 11:54 AM   #99
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I'm learning population density is directly proportional to the level of public health threat. Sure, this seems obvious.

But now, I get it. Like, I really get it.
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Old 04-15-2020, 01:01 PM   #100
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It's taught me that my 90/0/10 AA was actually pretty decent. That 10% cash is good for 18mos of expenses should I get laid off which is the biggest concern for me. I had been tempted to lower my cash allocation to just 6 mos worth a few times as the market kept increasing but I never felt comfortable going that low. In fact, given this atmosphere I wish I had been 80/0/20...but since no one can predict anything I would've felt like I was missing out on the upswings. So in the end, I guess I haven't learned anything new?

PS. Basic things that I always keep around for emergencies, some which are very hard to find still haven't run out but getting low i.e. Advil/Tylenol, 70% alcohol, hand sanitizer, TP, pantry stuff (pasta, PB, canned things, a few MREs, Brita filters), gloves, N95/N100 masks (for woodworking/welding etc).
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