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Old 04-15-2020, 05:50 PM   #121
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Unit of measure is better as # of months budget covered vs % AA. My cash/MM is > 5 yrs after other fixed income sources and < 10% of AA. Will move more to stocks with another 10+% dip towards 52 week lows. Somehow I watched the March low without trading.
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Old 04-15-2020, 09:46 PM   #122
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I was considering moving reallocating more stock in my TSP but thought better of it and still remain 10% stocks and 90% treasuries.


The PPP program is almost depleted with no additional legislation in the pipeline, banks are way down, and unemployment continues to spike up.


Don't see things getting any better in the near future.
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Old 04-15-2020, 09:55 PM   #123
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50/50
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Old 04-16-2020, 02:12 PM   #124
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I was 50/50, but just moved a large chunk from index funds to a stable value fund (bonds) in my 401k. Now I am closer to 45/55. I wanted a bit more asset preservation and have a somewhat gloomy feeling about a significant downturn in the next couple months. Its one thing for the government to declare "back to work", but another thing to convince consumers to come out in mass. I for one will be staying around the house for the foreseeable future. And I believe I am not alone.
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Old 04-16-2020, 02:49 PM   #125
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32% bonds, 8% cash. Living off investment income only.
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Old 04-16-2020, 03:19 PM   #126
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Well , I wouldn't consider it safe, but I have a little over 40% in a global bond fund that went down about half of what the market did. It's bounced back some since then. It's safer than stocks, but not safe. I also have a little in cash. Cash would be safe, but it doesn't pay anything in this environment and I need income. I shouldn't say cash doesn't pay anything, it pays too little for my taste.
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Old 04-16-2020, 04:48 PM   #127
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Sold my last fund Tuesday on an uptick. 100% cash now. I feel blessed to be only 3-4% down this year. Tuesday felt like a good opportunity to bail.

Market timing? Yes, definitely, but im losing faith in the actual value of stocks/bonds since there's so much funny money out there now.
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Old 04-16-2020, 11:20 PM   #128
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I was considering moving reallocating more stock in my TSP but thought better of it and still remain 10% stocks and 90% treasuries.


The PPP program is almost depleted with no additional legislation in the pipeline, banks are way down, and unemployment continues to spike up.


Don't see things getting any better in the near future.
Edited: PPP program depleted.
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Old 04-17-2020, 09:07 AM   #129
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I've got quite a bit sitting in Pimco's Income Fund (PIMIX/PONAX). It took a pretty good hit, in the area of 8%, but it looks like it's starting to crawl back out of the hole. A recent Financial Times article said Pimco lost a lot of AUM last month because of share redemptions -- not surprising. We'll see if it comes back as well as it did in 2008-'09.
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Old 04-17-2020, 09:27 AM   #130
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Roughly 20% in short term and intermediate bond funds, as well as cash. I can live off of this 20% for at least a decade.
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Old 04-17-2020, 11:25 AM   #131
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Just completed more corporate bond sales today and now I'm 41% cash 59% corporate bonds. I'm up 5.6% YTD and staying with corporate bonds of companies in technology, telecom, pharma, and biotech. I have plenty of dry powder to pick up bargains on the next fixed income sell-off which will likely be triggered by cascading defaults in retail, travel and leisure, commercial real estate, and oil and gas sector bonds.
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Old 04-17-2020, 11:59 AM   #132
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94% cash...retiring in May...we will both have pensions to help as well. Before this virus nightmare we were up to 50/50
at least try to protect your cash from inflation.
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Old 04-17-2020, 04:24 PM   #133
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And how is that done?
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Increased cash and reduced equity
Old 04-17-2020, 04:48 PM   #134
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Increased cash and reduced equity

I have a very diversified portfolio with a fair amount of rental real estate. Still pulled a few hundred K out of equities and will put it in MM or rolling over short term bonds so always cash on hand to live for 3 -5 years if things get truly nuts.

What would be truly nuts but not out of the realm of possibility is if this virus mutates and becomes more deadly, or another one pops up. Then virtually all leisure activities done in groups would end. Travel, theatre, concerts, sports finished! Ultimately all manufacturing becomes essential just on a much reduced scale. We will still need clothes, appliances, food, places to live etc so businesses would have to adapt.

On the other hand, I have forecast 35 years living well in retirement, but in that kind of world where it is only safe to be at home or away from people, I probably would be okay not living nearly so long!
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Old 04-18-2020, 09:51 PM   #135
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And how is that done?
Just put your cash into the safest interest-bearing CDs, annuities or similarly secure short-term investments. Right now inflation is very low, in fact deflation seems to be the direction we're headed in. That is one of the reasons CD rates are so low - there's no inflation to worry about.

When that changes, and inflation kicks in, money will become more expensive. All interest rates - including CDs - will go up because lenders will adjust their rates to account for the diminished Present Value of money over the lending term.

Back in '16, I put $120K in an annuity paying 3.85% for 5 years as my security blanket. I second guessed myself many times on this one, but I'm sleeping much better these days.
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Old 04-18-2020, 10:03 PM   #136
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virtually no interest-bearing security exposure currently , maybe 1% via some LICs

i don't normally count the property interests outside the REITs holdings , the value is notional , those real estate folks will tell you anything , the tenant is out of work currently so the property is really only generating solar power rebates .

so a widely diversified equity portfolio about 5% cash some divs and solar power income , life could be worse

in a climate of rapidly shifting rules no debt instruments for me , not even a personal credit card
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Old 04-19-2020, 07:57 AM   #137
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I have about 70% of my fixed or bond side in a stable value fund earning 2.9%. I have an opportunity to go all in at 100% via my tax privileged account. Wondering if this is a good idea at this time.
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Old 04-19-2020, 08:01 AM   #138
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Only emergency fund which is about 2%. Disclaimer: I not FIREd yet.
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Old 04-19-2020, 08:01 AM   #139
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I have about 70% of my fixed or bond side in a stable value fund earning 2.9%. I have an opportunity to go all in at 100% via my tax privileged account. Wondering if this is a good idea at this time.
Do you have other options in your (401k) in case Stable Value rates decrease in the near future?
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Old 04-19-2020, 08:03 AM   #140
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All the fixed earning rates will or have dropped. Most HY accounts are below 2%. I had over $200k in one that has been paying 2.7% for 3 years now. 4/13 they lowered it to 2%. Inflation is low now, so 2% keeps pace. But Long term cash keeping pace, when inflation takes off is what I meant. I don’t know if a short term annuity paying 3.5% is even possible today. I’m not worried in the least, but it is a good talking point, since I do expect inflation to rise with the government printing money.
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