View Poll Results: What was/is your probability of success for FIRE
|
100%
|
|
115 |
68.45% |
95-99%
|
|
37 |
22.02% |
90-94%
|
|
9 |
5.36% |
80%
|
|
6 |
3.57% |
70%
|
|
0 |
0% |
below 70%
|
|
1 |
0.60% |
|
|
What probability of success did you retire at (or plan to retire at)?
12-16-2020, 01:03 PM
|
#1
|
Dryer sheet wannabe
Join Date: Dec 2020
Posts: 12
|
What probability of success did you retire at (or plan to retire at)?
Hi I am new to this forum and searched for this topic not only on this forum but also the web. It seems like there is no general consensus for retirement and probability of success level but it all really depends on comfort level. I know that there is no magic number since anything can happen in the future.
I was wondering for those who have already retired or plan to retire soon, what was your probability of success before you started to FIRE.
I also put a poll in and thought the results would be helpful.
|
|
|
|
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!
Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!
You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!
|
12-16-2020, 01:04 PM
|
#2
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 14,328
|
150% . Pension covers my expenses, SS provides mad money, portfolio is long term care insurance and then some.
|
|
|
12-16-2020, 01:08 PM
|
#3
|
Dryer sheet wannabe
Join Date: Dec 2020
Posts: 12
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by travelover
150% . Pension covers my expenses, SS provides mad money, portfolio is long term care insurance and then some.
|
That sounds like a good approach. I should of added something like that to my poll.
|
|
|
12-16-2020, 01:11 PM
|
#4
|
Dryer sheet wannabe
Join Date: Jun 2016
Posts: 10
|
What does 150% mean? I've seen others say things like this, but it makes no sense to me. If success is not running out of money, then how can you ever do better than 100% Do you mean 1.5 times the amount of money that would yield 100% success rate in something like firecalc or what...
|
|
|
12-16-2020, 01:12 PM
|
#5
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas: No Country for Old Men
Posts: 50,021
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by AvidGolfer80
I was wondering for those who have already retired or plan to retire soon, what was your probability of success before you started to FIRE.
|
I think it is obvious to most of us, but you do mean "as shown by FIRECalc", right?
__________________
Numbers is hard
|
|
|
12-16-2020, 01:17 PM
|
#6
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Sep 2013
Location: Ventura County
Posts: 1,433
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by travelover
150% . Pension covers my expenses, SS provides mad money, portfolio is long term care insurance and then some.
|
Similar for me. 100% in all calculators was a requirement, but also used a spend rate well in excess of what I actually expected. The upshot is that I retired 3-5 years later than I probably could have, but at a much reduced level of worry. This may or may not be a worthwhile trade for many, but I had just recently been through a halving of my assets (and subsequent recovery) during the Great Recession and was ill inclined to take chances.
|
|
|
12-16-2020, 01:19 PM
|
#7
|
Dryer sheet wannabe
Join Date: Dec 2020
Posts: 12
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by REWahoo
I think it is obvious to most of us, but you do mean "as shown by FIRECalc", right?
|
Yes
|
|
|
12-16-2020, 01:23 PM
|
#8
|
Dryer sheet wannabe
Join Date: Dec 2020
Posts: 12
|
Now I am wondering if there is anyone on this forum or know of someone who retired at a very low probability? 80% 70% 60% or even 50%
|
|
|
12-16-2020, 01:26 PM
|
#9
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Tampa
Posts: 11,299
|
It was important to me to have 100% success as defined by Firecalc, not to mention other calculators.
Some folks don't pay much attention to the calculators, but also many of these folks have a high % of secured income.
__________________
TGIM
|
|
|
12-16-2020, 01:28 PM
|
#10
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 14,328
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by AvidGolfer80
Now I am wondering if there is anyone on this forum or know of someone who retired at a very low probability? 80% 70% 60% or even 50%
|
Those people aren't on this forum, they are sleeping in their cars down by the river.
|
|
|
12-16-2020, 01:28 PM
|
#11
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Mar 2014
Location: Dallas
Posts: 1,155
|
I am planning for 100% success with portfolio never dropping below initial value (inflation adjusted) i.e. multigenerational perpetual retirement.
|
|
|
12-16-2020, 01:29 PM
|
#12
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Tampa
Posts: 11,299
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by travelover
Those people aren't on this forum, they are sleeping in their cars down by the river.
|
At least it should be a van.
__________________
TGIM
|
|
|
12-16-2020, 01:31 PM
|
#13
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas: No Country for Old Men
Posts: 50,021
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by AvidGolfer80
Now I am wondering if there is anyone on this forum or know of someone who retired at a very low probability? 80% 70% 60% or even 50%
|
There have been several. Many left the forum when they returned to work.
__________________
Numbers is hard
|
|
|
12-16-2020, 01:37 PM
|
#14
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 47,500
|
When I was planning retirement, I was thinking that about 95% would be a good goal.
After I retired (in 2009) the market has simply soared. Now, FIRECalc tells me I could be spending several times what I originally planned on spending, and still be at 100%.
I guess I won the lottery when it comes to SORR (Sequence of Returns Risk).
__________________
Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities. - - H. Melville, 1851.
Happily retired since 2009, at age 61. Best years of my life by far!
|
|
|
12-16-2020, 01:38 PM
|
#15
|
Dryer sheet wannabe
Join Date: Dec 2020
Posts: 12
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by REWahoo
There have been several. Many left the forum when they returned to work.
|
For those who chose 100%.... are we talking about the bare minimum to reach 100% (based on the number of years, yearly withdrawal and size of the nest egg) or far exceeding it?
Thanks
|
|
|
12-16-2020, 01:41 PM
|
#16
|
Dryer sheet wannabe
Join Date: Dec 2020
Posts: 12
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by W2R
When I was planning retirement, I was thinking that about 95% would be a good goal.
After I retired (in 2009) the market has simply soared. Now, FIRECalc tells me I could be spending several times what I originally planned on spending, and still be at 100%.
I guess I won the lottery when it comes to SORR (Sequence of Returns Risk).
|
lets hope this happens to all of us
|
|
|
12-16-2020, 01:44 PM
|
#17
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Sep 2017
Posts: 1,110
|
We were at low 90s when we initially planned, but have a significant amount of our net worth tied up in RE. Assuming we sold our current home in 15-20 yrs and bought something more retirement friendly we would have been ~95%.
Since then DH has continued part time work and the market has done well by us, so last I checked we’re now at 96% without selling the house, which is nice. We do have a decent chunk of discretionary expenses in there though, so can cut if necessary.
We are almost 100% reliant on our investments for income, which is very different than if we had a pension. We do include some SS income in that.
|
|
|
12-16-2020, 01:45 PM
|
#18
|
Administrator
Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 23,041
|
I waited for 200%, which I define as doubling my actual expenses and still getting a 100% out of FIRECalc.
__________________
Living an analog life in the Digital Age.
|
|
|
12-16-2020, 01:49 PM
|
#19
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2016
Location: DC area
Posts: 2,496
|
I ~110% by comparing my portfolio to the 100% starting portfolio value in FIRECalc. But that included a bunch of conservative assumptions as well.
I'm now about 150%
__________________
FI and Semi-ER March 24, 2017
Consulting to stay engaged
"All models are wrong, some are useful." - George Box
“There is always a well-known solution to every human problem: neat, plausible, and wrong.” - H.L. Mencken
|
|
|
12-16-2020, 01:58 PM
|
#20
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Crownsville
Posts: 3,746
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by travelover
Those people aren't on this forum, they are sleeping in their cars down by the river.
|
Depends on whether they retired in 1973, 1974, or 1975
|
|
|
|
|
Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
|
|
Posting Rules
|
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
HTML code is Off
|
|
|
|
» Recent Threads
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
» Quick Links
|
|
|