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View Poll Results: What was/is your probability of success for FIRE
100% 115 68.45%
95-99% 37 22.02%
90-94% 9 5.36%
80% 6 3.57%
70% 0 0%
below 70% 1 0.60%
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What probability of success did you retire at (or plan to retire at)?
Old 12-16-2020, 02:03 PM   #1
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What probability of success did you retire at (or plan to retire at)?

Hi I am new to this forum and searched for this topic not only on this forum but also the web. It seems like there is no general consensus for retirement and probability of success level but it all really depends on comfort level. I know that there is no magic number since anything can happen in the future.

I was wondering for those who have already retired or plan to retire soon, what was your probability of success before you started to FIRE.

I also put a poll in and thought the results would be helpful.
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Old 12-16-2020, 02:04 PM   #2
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150% . Pension covers my expenses, SS provides mad money, portfolio is long term care insurance and then some.
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Old 12-16-2020, 02:08 PM   #3
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Originally Posted by travelover View Post
150% . Pension covers my expenses, SS provides mad money, portfolio is long term care insurance and then some.
That sounds like a good approach. I should of added something like that to my poll.
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Old 12-16-2020, 02:11 PM   #4
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What does 150% mean? I've seen others say things like this, but it makes no sense to me. If success is not running out of money, then how can you ever do better than 100% Do you mean 1.5 times the amount of money that would yield 100% success rate in something like firecalc or what...
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Old 12-16-2020, 02:12 PM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AvidGolfer80 View Post
I was wondering for those who have already retired or plan to retire soon, what was your probability of success before you started to FIRE.
I think it is obvious to most of us, but you do mean "as shown by FIRECalc", right?
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Old 12-16-2020, 02:17 PM   #6
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150% . Pension covers my expenses, SS provides mad money, portfolio is long term care insurance and then some.

Similar for me. 100% in all calculators was a requirement, but also used a spend rate well in excess of what I actually expected. The upshot is that I retired 3-5 years later than I probably could have, but at a much reduced level of worry. This may or may not be a worthwhile trade for many, but I had just recently been through a halving of my assets (and subsequent recovery) during the Great Recession and was ill inclined to take chances.
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Old 12-16-2020, 02:19 PM   #7
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I think it is obvious to most of us, but you do mean "as shown by FIRECalc", right?

Yes
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Old 12-16-2020, 02:23 PM   #8
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Now I am wondering if there is anyone on this forum or know of someone who retired at a very low probability? 80% 70% 60% or even 50%
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Old 12-16-2020, 02:26 PM   #9
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It was important to me to have 100% success as defined by Firecalc, not to mention other calculators.
Some folks don't pay much attention to the calculators, but also many of these folks have a high % of secured income.
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Old 12-16-2020, 02:28 PM   #10
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Now I am wondering if there is anyone on this forum or know of someone who retired at a very low probability? 80% 70% 60% or even 50%
Those people aren't on this forum, they are sleeping in their cars down by the river.
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Old 12-16-2020, 02:28 PM   #11
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I am planning for 100% success with portfolio never dropping below initial value (inflation adjusted) i.e. multigenerational perpetual retirement.
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Old 12-16-2020, 02:29 PM   #12
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Those people aren't on this forum, they are sleeping in their cars down by the river.
At least it should be a van.
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Old 12-16-2020, 02:31 PM   #13
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Now I am wondering if there is anyone on this forum or know of someone who retired at a very low probability? 80% 70% 60% or even 50%
There have been several. Many left the forum when they returned to work.
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Old 12-16-2020, 02:37 PM   #14
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When I was planning retirement, I was thinking that about 95% would be a good goal.

After I retired (in 2009) the market has simply soared. Now, FIRECalc tells me I could be spending several times what I originally planned on spending, and still be at 100%.

I guess I won the lottery when it comes to SORR (Sequence of Returns Risk).
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Old 12-16-2020, 02:38 PM   #15
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There have been several. Many left the forum when they returned to work.
For those who chose 100%.... are we talking about the bare minimum to reach 100% (based on the number of years, yearly withdrawal and size of the nest egg) or far exceeding it?

Thanks
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Old 12-16-2020, 02:41 PM   #16
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Originally Posted by W2R View Post
When I was planning retirement, I was thinking that about 95% would be a good goal.

After I retired (in 2009) the market has simply soared. Now, FIRECalc tells me I could be spending several times what I originally planned on spending, and still be at 100%.

I guess I won the lottery when it comes to SORR (Sequence of Returns Risk).

lets hope this happens to all of us
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Old 12-16-2020, 02:44 PM   #17
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We were at low 90s when we initially planned, but have a significant amount of our net worth tied up in RE. Assuming we sold our current home in 15-20 yrs and bought something more retirement friendly we would have been ~95%.

Since then DH has continued part time work and the market has done well by us, so last I checked we’re now at 96% without selling the house, which is nice. We do have a decent chunk of discretionary expenses in there though, so can cut if necessary.

We are almost 100% reliant on our investments for income, which is very different than if we had a pension. We do include some SS income in that.
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Old 12-16-2020, 02:45 PM   #18
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I waited for 200%, which I define as doubling my actual expenses and still getting a 100% out of FIRECalc.
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Old 12-16-2020, 02:49 PM   #19
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I ~110% by comparing my portfolio to the 100% starting portfolio value in FIRECalc. But that included a bunch of conservative assumptions as well.

I'm now about 150%
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Old 12-16-2020, 02:58 PM   #20
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Those people aren't on this forum, they are sleeping in their cars down by the river.
Depends on whether they retired in 1973, 1974, or 1975
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