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What Success % do you use?
10-26-2018, 02:23 PM
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#1
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: May 2013
Posts: 327
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What Success % do you use?
If you have used retirement calculators, what success percentage are you comfortable using / targeting?
Do you prefer historical (firecalc, ********) or Monte Carlo?
(Being ridiculously conservative, I always go for 100% success.)
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10-26-2018, 02:32 PM
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#2
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jan 2017
Location: Hog Mountian
Posts: 2,077
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100%. If we end up leaving more behind, that's okay.
Done both - prefer historical.
__________________
Never let yesterday use up too much of today.
W. Rogers
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10-26-2018, 02:33 PM
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#3
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Miraflores,Peru
Posts: 1,992
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I always "fudge" the numbers until I can show a multi-million dollar balance when I die. I then share them with my "young wife" just before bedtime and hope she shows her appreciation!
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10-26-2018, 02:34 PM
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#4
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Aug 2016
Posts: 770
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Psychologically I am feeling okay with 95+% although I prefer seeing 98+. I know the difference in 95 and 98 is a nit but I still feel more comfortable knowing only 2 cycles failed in Firecalc.
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10-26-2018, 02:40 PM
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#5
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Moderator
Join Date: Nov 2014
Posts: 9,171
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My main calculator was the Fidelity retirement planner. I used below market averages (basically no income) and 100 percent success. Plus, I overstated my expenses. So overall, more than 100 percent.
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Every day when I open my eyes now it feels like a Saturday - David Gray
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10-26-2018, 02:42 PM
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#6
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2017
Posts: 2,551
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I shoot for 100%, but wonder if the safety provided by achieving this is outweighed by the risk of dying before the money's gone.
Here's the Rich, Dead or Broke calculator, as food for thought.
https://engaging-data.com/will-money-last-retire-early/
Is it worth working for 100%, when the probability that you'll end up dead before broke is so much greater?
Does your retirement spending include a safety factor? For example, If you're planning to spend $100K annually, but base expenses are only $50K, you could always cut spending to ensure you don't run out of $. In essence, run the calculator for both spending rates.
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10-26-2018, 02:46 PM
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#7
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2015
Location: Michigan
Posts: 5,003
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100% makes me feel good. My retirement score at Fido is 150+%.
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"The mountains are calling, and I must go." John Muir
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10-26-2018, 02:47 PM
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#8
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 2,985
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HNL Bill
I shoot for 100%, but wonder if the safety provided by achieving this is outweighed by the risk of dying before the money's gone.
Here's the Rich, Dead or Broke calculator, as food for thought.
https://engaging-data.com/will-money-last-retire-early/
Is it worth working for 100%, when the probability that you'll end up dead before broke is so much greater?
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Bingo!!! If in doubt go over to Bogleheads where I'm sure 200% isn't good enough/
__________________
Took SS at 62 and hope I live long enough to regret the decision.
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10-26-2018, 02:48 PM
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#9
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 38,140
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I use % remaining portfolio which has a 100% success rate by definition as it never runs out of money. So I looked at remaining portfolio statistics and worst case historical drawdown (income drop) to select what I thought was the max withdrawal rate I would be OK with.
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Retired since summer 1999.
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10-26-2018, 02:52 PM
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#10
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 5,350
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100% but only to age 80, not 95 or 100 like most people here.
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10-26-2018, 02:55 PM
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#11
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Tampa
Posts: 11,298
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Will be going to % remaining of portfolio next year.
Currently, shoot for 100% success using historical and Monte Carlo calculators.
Even though retired, I still run the various calculators monthly (15 min of time).
__________________
TGIM
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10-26-2018, 03:19 PM
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#12
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jan 2012
Posts: 2,593
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100%, but my preferred mode is using FIRECalc to find the spending level at which I'll never (historically) run out of money. When I see that that "safe" number is 1½ - 2X what my annual spending projections are, then I feel pretty confident. So I'd guess that translates roughly into 150 - 200% success?
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10-26-2018, 03:34 PM
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#13
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 38,140
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The Success % on traditional Firecalc SAFEMAX or SWR models assume an initial % of portfolio at retirement and then annual inflation adjustments thereafter.
I can see why people use it as the starting point for “do I have enough to retire?”.
Few people actually follow that withdrawal method.
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Retired since summer 1999.
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10-26-2018, 03:48 PM
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#14
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Syracuse
Posts: 3,502
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I got a 80% success in the first iteration and figured that was good enough as travel was my largest estimated expense. 80% was good enough to tell my manager Id be happy to take a package.
I use Fidelitys calculator now and it comes up good at their worst case scenario which I think is 90% of markets.
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“No, not rich. I am a poor man with money, which is not the same thing"
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10-26-2018, 03:50 PM
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#15
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: May 2013
Posts: 327
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LOL: I adjust spending to the highest amount that still yields 99% success and then grin because current spend is so much lower
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10-26-2018, 04:03 PM
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#16
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Apr 2013
Posts: 11,078
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Depends on what calculator you use and where you are in retirement.
When I was planning we used 100yo and slightly overestimated expenses, slightly underestimated my SS and 95% success in Fidelity's RIP. IMHO probably the most conservative calculator, especially if you detail your expenses.
I used other calcs and firecalc seemed closest to Fidelity. A little better results, and I used it as a valued second opinion. I spent a lot of time in RIP and used it as my base. That was ~6 years ago, before retiring, and I feel okay financially ptoday. I'm thankful I've had the last 5.5 years to experience my life.
I'm sure I saw my Fidelity score this year, Vanguard says I'm ok too. I don't care about those numbers anymore.[emoji111]
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10-26-2018, 04:04 PM
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#17
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: May 2014
Location: Lakewood
Posts: 920
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80% of a budget that reflects a very comfortable lifestyle. If that percentage starts trending towards 50%; I'll just slash the discretionary part of the budget until I get old or the success rate recovers.
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Why be normal when you can be yourself?
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10-26-2018, 04:35 PM
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#18
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: Florida's First Coast
Posts: 7,719
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100%
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"Never Argue With a Fool, Onlookers May Not Be Able To Tell the Difference." - Mark Twain
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10-26-2018, 04:38 PM
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#19
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Boise
Posts: 7,882
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I use FIREcalc with a 40 year planning horizon, historical model, all defaults except for my spending, portfolio value, expense ratio, and AA. I then use the investigate tab to search for 95% success rate and compare that to my actual spending.
Haven't run it in a week or two, though! :-)
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"At times the world can seem an unfriendly and sinister place, but believe us when we say there is much more good in it than bad. All you have to do is look hard enough, and what might seem to be a series of unfortunate events, may in fact be the first steps of a journey." Violet Baudelaire.
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10-26-2018, 05:08 PM
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#20
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: San Francisco
Posts: 862
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I use 100% safe on a retirement that goes till I am 100 years old, with the plan of ratcheting my spending up at the indefinite SWR (3% is what I'm using for planning purposes) whenever my portfolio increases to minimize unspent gains.
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