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What will the next bubble be?
09-05-2007, 09:46 AM
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#1
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 655
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What will the next bubble be?
During the past twelve years, we've experienced both the "dot-com bubble" and the "housing bubble." Speculators continue to lose enormous amounts of money. The subprime crisis is now negatively effecting economies around the world. We never seem to learn from past mistakes which are always motivated by greed. The only thing we can really count on is that history will repeat itself. Does anyone have any predictions on what the next economic bubble will be?
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09-05-2007, 09:52 AM
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#2
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Oahu
Posts: 26,860
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Retire Soon
Does anyone have any predictions on what the next economic bubble will be?
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Commodities, followed by Pokémon cards...
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Co-author (with my daughter) of “Raising Your Money-Savvy Family For Next Generation Financial Independence.”
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09-05-2007, 09:53 AM
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#3
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 18,085
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Its about time for energy to be the bubble. Been long enough since the last episode of hard time for that industry for everyone to forget, and there is plenty of fast and dangerousy stupid money that has since jumped into the pool.
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"All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others."
- George Orwell
Ezekiel 23:20
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09-05-2007, 09:57 AM
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#4
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 224
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Gold.
Everybody and their mother will want the "safety" that gold offers. With the volatility in stocks and the real estate bubble bursting, I see tons of people investing in gold. It'll get pushed up to around $1200/oz. and then the bottom will fall out of that as well because as Retire Soon so elequently put it "We never seem to learn from past mistakes which are always motivated by greed."
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09-05-2007, 10:01 AM
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#5
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: west bloomfield MI
Posts: 2,223
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International is the next bubble which will burst. The government is controlling the dollar, and once they reverse their control, that bubble will crumble.
Energy sounds like a good one to me. People seam to be putting lots of money in natural resources types funds and appears to be where everyone wants to go.
So right now I would be buying
a) financials
b) consumer durables
c) Tech
and holding/selling international and energy
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Light travels faster than sound. That is why some people appear bright until you hear them speak. One person's stupidity is another person's job security.
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09-05-2007, 10:30 AM
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#6
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: At The Cafe
Posts: 6,873
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jIMOh
International is the next bubble which will burst. The government is controlling the dollar, and once they reverse their control, that bubble will crumble.
Energy sounds like a good one to me. People seam to be putting lots of money in natural resources types funds and appears to be where everyone wants to go.
So right now I would be buying
a) financials
b) consumer durables
c) Tech
and holding/selling international and energy
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I'll buy what you are saying! One of the reasons I bailed out of equities recently was that the housing news seemed to so affect the international markets. BTY, I did very well in an international fund.
I'm thinking that any mass movements by baby boomers could affect the markets. People are being advised to retire to less expensive areas and rent before buying. How about a bubble in retirement apartment complex building?
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09-05-2007, 10:42 AM
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#7
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 22,983
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Quote:
Originally Posted by brewer12345
Its about time for energy to be the bubble. Been long enough since the last episode of hard time for that industry for everyone to forget, and there is plenty of fast and dangerousy stupid money that has since jumped into the pool.
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I assume that you are saying that energy is currently a bubble, but it will soon burst? Is that correct?
Ha
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"As a general rule, the more dangerous or inappropriate a conversation, the more interesting it is."-Scott Adams
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09-05-2007, 10:46 AM
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#8
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Oahu
Posts: 26,860
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jIMOh
The government is controlling the dollar, and once they reverse their control, that bubble will crumble.
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The government of which country?
__________________
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Co-author (with my daughter) of “Raising Your Money-Savvy Family For Next Generation Financial Independence.”
Author of the book written on E-R.org: "The Military Guide to Financial Independence and Retirement."
I don't spend much time here— please send a PM.
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09-05-2007, 10:56 AM
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#9
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Lawn chair in Texas
Posts: 14,183
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Re: The dollar - Don't forget the mints in Denver, San Fran, Philly, Tehran, and Pyongyang...
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Have Funds, Will Retire
...not doing anything of true substance...
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09-05-2007, 11:10 AM
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#10
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 18,085
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Quote:
Originally Posted by haha
I assume that you are saying that energy is currently a bubble, but it will soon burst? Is that correct?
Ha
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Actually, I don't think energy is at bubble proportions. I see the same cost to find and lifting cost trends as everyone else: nothing but upwards. That means that the floor level at which producers have to be paid continues to drift upwards at a healthy rate, and I see no signs of that stopping any time soon. But every drilling rig in existence seems to be pressed into service and this industry has a long history of boom and bust cycles, so eventually it will spawn a new bubble. The capital maret are already force-feeding money into the sector, so the potential is there.
I think you are safe for now, Ha, but pay attention. If you start seeing producers refuse to shut in production when prices slip, be on your guard.
__________________
"All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others."
- George Orwell
Ezekiel 23:20
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09-05-2007, 12:59 PM
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#11
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 1,703
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Retire Soon
Does anyone have any predictions on what the next economic bubble will be?
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China, and probably emerging markets in general, are already in bubble territory.
Shipping stocks will probably be the next bubble.
To find a bubble, look for good initial fundamentals followed by a flock of speculators rushing in.
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Emancipated from wage-slavery since 2002
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09-05-2007, 01:01 PM
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#12
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
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Posts: 18,085
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Not yet, though. Valuations are still pretty low vs. charter rates and asset prices. But eventually they will overbuild like they always do.
In the meantime, the bulker stocks are very attractively priced.
__________________
"All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others."
- George Orwell
Ezekiel 23:20
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09-05-2007, 01:57 PM
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#13
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 12,483
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Quote:
Originally Posted by twaddle
China, and probably emerging markets in general, are already in bubble territory.
Shipping stocks will probably be the next bubble.
To find a bubble, look for good initial fundamentals followed by a flock of speculators rushing in.
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I predict the following:
Ethanol Bubble
Biodiesel Bubble
Coal Tar Bubble
Lithium Bubble (hybrid car batteries)
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Consult with your own advisor or representative. My thoughts should not be construed as investment advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results (love that one).......:)
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09-05-2007, 02:03 PM
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#14
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 82
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Eyerishgold
Gold.
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+1 and add silver and maybe palladium. The usual summer bashing is taking place along with the PM sell offs for all of the big players to cover their rear ends due to the dollar losses.
Silver:
If the accused naked short selling of silver is investigated and corrected then silver will have a nice day indeed.
Palladium:
If some of the industries that currently use platinum decide to switch to palladium then it could be interesting. It might be just long enough from Ford getting burned that corporations will see that retooling and using palladium for significantly less might be the ticket.
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09-05-2007, 03:34 PM
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#15
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FinanceDude
I predict the following:
Coal Tar Bubble
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This would indeed be an unexpected one! Coar tar is a carcinogen, an ingrediant in some old but still curently used medicines, and a product of 19th century chemical industrial processing of coal.
Wow, what a bubble that would be!
Ha
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"As a general rule, the more dangerous or inappropriate a conversation, the more interesting it is."-Scott Adams
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09-05-2007, 03:58 PM
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#16
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 12,483
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Quote:
Originally Posted by haha
This would indeed be an unexpected one! Coar tar is a carcinogen, an ingrediant in some old but still curently used medicines, and a product of 19th century chemical industrial processing of coal.
Wow, what a bubble that would be!
Ha
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Didn't Brer Rabbit get in trouble with coal tar??
__________________
Consult with your own advisor or representative. My thoughts should not be construed as investment advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results (love that one).......:)
This Thread is USELESS without pics.........:)
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09-05-2007, 04:06 PM
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#17
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
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I figured that was tar from petroleum, but don't know that it was specified.
Ha
__________________
"As a general rule, the more dangerous or inappropriate a conversation, the more interesting it is."-Scott Adams
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09-05-2007, 04:13 PM
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#18
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Confused about dryer sheets
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 1
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+1 for China
But let's not underestimate the effect on the USD, given the amount of their currency reserves....
(BTW first post! Been a reader for a while though...)
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09-05-2007, 04:18 PM
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#19
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,005
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Yeah, I'll vote +1 on China. Everything else others have posted - maybe. China is the only thing I see as a definite, obvious bubble today.
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09-05-2007, 04:30 PM
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#20
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 1,703
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Quote:
Originally Posted by justin
China is the only thing I see as a definite, obvious bubble today.
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When is a bubble obvious? One can make an argument that valuations are fair because of high growth. What makes it bubblicious to me is the assumption that high growth will continue. Investors (including professional analysts) almost always overestimate future growth by looking at past growth.
Personally, I like bubbles. As long as I get in early enough and out before it's too late. I think China gets one more year. Maybe.
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