Well, I voted 4%, but...it's complicated. 
I'm still in the planning stage. I'm using 4% to determine "my number" as a baseline...to determine at what point I'd be comfortable in retiring.
Having said that, I also look at a PV of SoSec and look at the combined picture.
So, for example, if we start with a base of $1MM, 4% would give $40,000. Then, SoSec may throw off another $15k when the appropriate age is reached. So I *may* decide to do 5.5% in the time from ER to SoSec, then drop it down to 4%. There's certainly some risk in that, but see below.
Needless to say, I'm still figuring this stuff out and what will work for me, both in terms of income and getting a good night's sleep.
There are some other factors involved, one of which is my house. I plan to move to a much lower cost of living location and hence expect to spit off some decent funds when I sell my current place. For a long time, I've been leaving that off the table as a big, fat cushion (this would provide some insurance in case the 5.5% rate mentioned above in the years bridging to SoSec were down years). I may decide to bring it in the fold, but then be more conservative.
Having said all that, one of the things with the 4% solution is that, over 30 years, there is a good probability of leaving, perhaps substantial, money on the table, and I have no strong desire to leave much behind.
So...I think the path I'm heading down is one where I'll be able to live comfortably in retirement using the 4% guideline, but if things work out as they very well could, I'll have some spare money to supplement my travels.
I'm still in the planning stage. I'm using 4% to determine "my number" as a baseline...to determine at what point I'd be comfortable in retiring.
Having said that, I also look at a PV of SoSec and look at the combined picture.
So, for example, if we start with a base of $1MM, 4% would give $40,000. Then, SoSec may throw off another $15k when the appropriate age is reached. So I *may* decide to do 5.5% in the time from ER to SoSec, then drop it down to 4%. There's certainly some risk in that, but see below.
Needless to say, I'm still figuring this stuff out and what will work for me, both in terms of income and getting a good night's sleep.
There are some other factors involved, one of which is my house. I plan to move to a much lower cost of living location and hence expect to spit off some decent funds when I sell my current place. For a long time, I've been leaving that off the table as a big, fat cushion (this would provide some insurance in case the 5.5% rate mentioned above in the years bridging to SoSec were down years). I may decide to bring it in the fold, but then be more conservative.
Having said all that, one of the things with the 4% solution is that, over 30 years, there is a good probability of leaving, perhaps substantial, money on the table, and I have no strong desire to leave much behind.
So...I think the path I'm heading down is one where I'll be able to live comfortably in retirement using the 4% guideline, but if things work out as they very well could, I'll have some spare money to supplement my travels.
