wheeeeeee

[ripper1]

Can I get a small.......wheeee.....from W2R......S and P 500 up 100 points since Friday.

 

[W2R]

Beat you to the punch!

http://www.early-retirement.org/for...ny-time-since-2009-a-80466-4.html#post1698077

I didn't quite utter the "W" word, but I love it when the market acts like this!

 

[audreyh1]

We're not even above 2000 let along getting back above 2100.

Can't believe you folks are already partying!

I suspect someone is short the market and trying to invoke a W2R special downdraft!

 

[ripper1]

Beat you to the punch!

http://www.early-retirement.org/for...ny-time-since-2009-a-80466-4.html#post1698077

I didn't quite utter the "W" word, but I love it when the market acts like this!

Thanks, Lady Luck

 

[W2R]

I know it's evanescent and just on paper, but since last Thursday I have already made so much in my investment accounts.

How much? Almost 1/2 my annual take-home pay during my last year of work! You can't beat that with a stick, as the saying goes.

 

[Frankie1926]

Wheeeeeee



Sent from my iPhone using Early Retirement Forum

 

[audreyh1]

I know it's evanescent and just on paper, but since last Thursday I have already made so much in my investment accounts.

How much? Almost 1/2 my annual take-home pay during my last year of work! You can't beat that with a stick, as the saying goes.

I guess you haven't looked at how much you "lost" since last July?

 

[W2R]

I guess you haven't looked at how much you "lost" since last July?

Ha ha!! I'd rather not. Although, in July I had paid for my dream home in cash (closed on June 26th), but hadn't yet deposited the cash from selling my old home (closed on August 20th). So, compared with July, my portfolio probably looks better than most.

Now, comparing with April 24th (my personal all time high portfolio), I lost over 4x my annual take-home pay. I'll just not think about that right now....

 

[H2ODude]

I do believe there's a lesson here though. For those who panicked last week and dropped out they missed some of (what may be a temporary) the recovery. The other lesson is that while it does seem possible to foresee doom and the need to cut back (equities) it's really hard to tell when to "get back in." Didn't see a lot of folks screaming late last week it was time to return to the trough. Yeah, yeah I know, it can turn right around and continue its oil/China fueled decline, but that's just the point.

IOW, it's nice to see the minor recovery but I'll just stay right where I was. And go, "Hmmm. Whee!" And know it can all do a U-Turn!

 

[eytonxav]

Its very dangerous to be uttering that word, especially when on thin ice. I bet tomorrow or the next day, we will probably hear Whoaaaaa!

 

[marko]

Where is that guy on this forum last week who was predicting a major crash "as soon as next (this) week"?

Maybe. But likely not this week.

 

[Gumby]

Use of that word with a "w", an "h" and several "e"s should constitute grounds for an immediate ban from the board.

 

[FUEGO]

Wait, the market was down? And now it's up?

 

[kaneohe]

Use of that word with a "w", an "h" and several "e"s should constitute grounds for an immediate ban from the board.

......no! I had one more TLH to do but had other duties so didn't get it done.
What is the track record of the "w" word ..........my stereotypical view was that it was considered a curse on a rising market but I don't have data.......some would welcome it but maybe it's no better than a flip of a coin. Will the responsible party please defend her record (w/ data).

 

[Taxman59]

Wheeeeeee

I never liked roller coasters (found out I have Meniere's, a type of vertigo), so I never shout Wheee with ups and downs. With our 15 year old incontinent dog, DW shouts "wee" when she steps in a wet spot in the playroom!

 

[W2R]

Use of that word with a "w", an "h" and several "e"s should constitute grounds for an immediate ban from the board.

With one exception, please!

 

[W2R]

......no! I had one more TLH to do but had other duties so didn't get it done.
What is the track record of the "w" word ..........my stereotypical view was that it was considered a curse on a rising market but I don't have data.......some would welcome it but maybe it's no better than a flip of a coin. Will the responsible party please defend her record (w/ data).

My track record has been terrible! Except for the first time I screamed it, back in the fall of 2007... http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f28/record-dow-whee-30317.html

 

[haha]

The other lesson is that while it does seem possible to foresee doom and the need to cut back (equities) it's really hard to tell when to "get back in."

Many people say this, but I believe it comes from a-perfectionist definition of the problem. If on the other hand someone defines the task as only investing at a PE10 level that has in the past data been associated with attractive long term returns, there is no problem. Yet that rule would have likely kept the investor out of many recent markets, so if he is bench-marking he is not going to like it..

Ha

 

[audreyh1]

My track record has been terrible! Except for the first time I screamed it, back in the fall of 2007... http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f28/record-dow-whee-30317.html

Wow - your timing on that was spectacular! You hit the S&P500 peak on the day! Then the biggest selloff and bear market I've seen in my (adult) lifetime.

Was that your very first Wheeeee?

 

[W2R]

Wow - your timing on that was spectacular! You hit the S&P500 peak on the day! Then the biggest selloff and bear market I've seen in my (adult) lifetime.

Was that your very first Wheeeee?

Yes.

 

[Walt34]

Wow - your timing on that was spectacular! You hit the S&P500 peak on the day! Then the biggest selloff and bear market I've seen in my (adult) lifetime.

Was that your very first Wheeeee?

Yes.

And she's been blamed for every downturn since.

Hence the caution about using that word lightly.

 

[sengsational]

Many people say this, but I believe it comes from a-perfectionist definition of the problem. If on the other hand someone defines the task as only investing at a PE10 level that has in the past data been associated with attractive long term returns, there is no problem. Yet that rule would have likely kept the investor out of many recent markets, so if he is bench-marking he is not going to like it..

Ha

I'm concerned that the model is "over fit", but the PE10 level / momentum scheme in "Rock Breaks Scissors" showed a nice benefit over buy and hold (http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f28/using-shiller-pe-to-time-the-market-73166.html). Average real return of the S&P since 1881, according to this analysis, was 6.23%. By using the scheme in the book, the real return was 7.93%...nothing to sneeze at. It requires that the investor be out of the market for very, very long swaths of time, though. So "nobody" is going to do it...at least if they need to prove their worth every quarter.

 

[haha]

I'm concerned that the model is "over fit", but the PE10 level / momentum scheme in "Rock Breaks Scissors" showed a nice benefit over buy and hold (http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f28/using-shiller-pe-to-time-the-market-73166.html). Average real return of the S&P since 1881, according to this analysis, was 6.23%. By using the scheme in the book, the real return was 7.93%...nothing to sneeze at. It requires that the investor be out of the market for very, very long swaths of time, though. So "nobody" is going to do it...at least if they need to prove their worth every quarter.

Exactly my point. But unless we have an ego deficit, that problem does not apply here.

Also, all PE10 does is systematize buying proven value, and nothing else. It really is not a magic formula, it's just Graham and Dodd. But there is a great deal of resistance to it, which to me is a definite positive.

Ha