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View Poll Results: When did the current bull market start?
We are not in a bull market now 2 8.00%
01/03/2019 0 0%
12/24/2018 0 0%
11/04/2016 1 4.00%
2/11/2016 1 4.00%
9/28/2015 0 0%
March 2009 19 76.00%
Earlier / other / I like bacon 2 8.00%
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When did the bull market start?
Old 01-31-2019, 12:12 PM   #1
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When did the bull market start?

I guess I'm in a poll-making mood.

When did the current bull market start?

If you ask "secular or cyclical" - I don't know. Pick whichever feels best to you and vote accordingly.
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Old 01-31-2019, 12:16 PM   #2
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Not sure when it started, but I know who will stop it!
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Old 01-31-2019, 12:32 PM   #3
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History tells us that each Bull Market began shortly after I liquidated my portfolio :-(
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Old 01-31-2019, 12:48 PM   #4
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Not sure when it started, but I know who will stop it!
Is that a statue of Elizabeth Warren?
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Old 01-31-2019, 01:01 PM   #5
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A case can be made for summer of 2011.
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Old 01-31-2019, 01:15 PM   #6
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A case can be made for summer of 2011.
I can see that. I guess I was swayed when looking back at historical SP500 pricing that that time frame seemed to be not much of an interruption to the 3/2009 to ...uh, now? upward trend. But I suppose excluding summer 2011 and including fall 2015 and spring 2016 could be viewed as inconsistent.

(The honest reason for the difference is that I was still in the accumulation mindset in 2011 but was on the cusp of FIREing in fall 2015/spring 2016.)

Hopefully one of the last two poll options appeal to you.
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Old 01-31-2019, 01:21 PM   #7
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Voted March 2009. Keeping it to the classic definition. Kind of wish that the drop last Dec was officially over 20%, so the psychology aspect of the looongest bull market is out of play.
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Old 01-31-2019, 01:27 PM   #8
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Voted March 2009. Keeping it to the classic definition. Kind of wish that the drop last Dec was officially over 20%, so the psychology aspect of the looongest bull market is out of play.
+1/Massive layoffs and home foreclosures in FL in spring 2009, but I survived and I poured more $$$ into market and glad I did. I should have bought all the foreclosed homes on my street but did not.
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Old 01-31-2019, 01:27 PM   #9
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I can see that. I guess I was swayed when looking back at historical SP500 pricing that that time frame seemed to be not much of an interruption to the 3/2009 to ...uh, now? upward trend. But I suppose excluding summer 2011 and including fall 2015 and spring 2016 could be viewed as inconsistent.

(The honest reason for the difference is that I was still in the accumulation mindset in 2011 but was on the cusp of FIREing in fall 2015/spring 2016.)

Hopefully one of the last two poll options appeal to you.
I tend to lean to March of 2009 as the correct answer, but the 2011 swoon sticks in my head. It was right when we were looking at houses and the market was taking big chunks out of my net worth on daily basis. We all tend to remember pain for some reason.
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Old 01-31-2019, 01:29 PM   #10
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Is that a statue of Elizabeth Warren?
In NYC. I believe it is Tiffany.
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Old 01-31-2019, 01:37 PM   #11
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Just for consistency I refer to Yardeni's chart, so March 2009. He uses S&P500.
https://www.yardeni.com/pub/sp500corrbear.pdf
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Old 01-31-2019, 01:38 PM   #12
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+1/Massive layoffs and home foreclosures in FL in spring 2009, but I survived and I poured more $$$ into market and glad I did. I should have bought all the foreclosed homes on my street but did not.
We are in the process of buying a SFH right now. Looking at some of the 2006 prices compared to 2010 then compared to now - WOW....
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Old 01-31-2019, 01:39 PM   #13
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I guess if we're going by that classic 20% drop definition, March 2009, it is!


Since then though, I've had a few rough patches. Here's my recollection of them...
1) 2010: June/July/August: I was down at least 10% (don't have my figures with me right now, though). But then in September through the rest of the year it took off.


2) 2011: July: Lost about 15% in about a month, and for the year I was down slightly (like 0.1-0.2%). I recovered in early 2012, though.


3) 2014: Year started off great, but then I remember it seeming to fizz around July, where I hit my peak for the year. Still finished up around 5.6% for the year, though. 2015, I was up less than 2%, and I remember it bottoming out in early 2016. I don't think my NW was ever down by more than 10%, though. However, since additional investments dilute that, there might have been moments where performance-wise, I took a >10% loss. By late summer of 2016, things started to improve, and I ended up with a return of around +8.9% that year.


4) 2018: Well, January was a great month. But then Feb knocked most of that out. But then, it kept building back up, through September. At that point I was probably up around 7.5%, return-wise. But then October took away all my gains and left me about flat. Slight rebound in November, and by Christmas Eve, my return was down around 18%, from that September peak. Nice rebound by December 31 though, so I think I only finished the year down a bit under 8% (from January 1, not from September). When I ran my numbers a few days ago, I had actually "made back" almost as much for 2019's start, as I "lost" in 2018. So basically, right now, I figure this latest routing has put me back to roughly the beginning of 2018.


Of all those rough patches, I'd say the 2014-2016 period felt the worst. While it wasn't the biggest hit, financially, it just got annoying, the way it dragged out and it seemed like I wasn't getting ahead. Although, who knows...we might not be out of the woods yet, with this current one!
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Old 01-31-2019, 01:42 PM   #14
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It was two weeks after my smarter-than-you neighbor proudly announced that she had sold everything. The Last Friday of February 2009.
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Old 01-31-2019, 01:42 PM   #15
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I tend to lean to March of 2009 as the correct answer, but the 2011 swoon sticks in my head. It was right when we were looking at houses and the market was taking big chunks out of my net worth on daily basis. We all tend to remember pain for some reason.

I still have vivid memories of that one, mainly because the Great Recession was still so fresh in my mind. When I lost about 15%, over the course of about a month, I thought we were having a relapse!
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