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02-11-2021, 04:07 PM
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#21
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 14,328
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Watch your portfolio closely and when it pops up above your number, retire quick, because if you wait a few days, you might not be able to afford to.
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02-11-2021, 05:40 PM
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#22
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Nov 2016
Location: San Jose
Posts: 466
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Quote:
Originally Posted by foxfirev5
30x anticipated annual expenses on top of SS and mini pension. The rest is 90+% equities in Roth accounts. Let it ride. Your results WILL vary.
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I would agree with 30x which seems a reasonably safe number. But the problem is that NW is unstable fluctuating with the market. So I'd define the goal as annual passive income greater or equal than annual expense. If part of the income comes from retirement accounts then there need to be an equivalent amount of cash to substitute this part till the age of 59.5.
__________________
Retired Sep 2023 @56
Target AA: 50% stock / 20% bond / 30% cash
Target WR: ~3.6%
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02-11-2021, 05:44 PM
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#23
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: Thailand countryside, Sisaket province
Posts: 1,331
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When I saw that my pension benefit was more or less equal to what I was already living on.
__________________
Happy, Wild, and Free
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02-11-2021, 06:02 PM
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#24
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Moderator
Join Date: Nov 2014
Posts: 9,102
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Quote:
Originally Posted by YoungSaver
A 50% fluctuation doesn't bother you? I'm having a hard time understanding that. Is it that your yearly expenses fluctuate wildly each year over the past 10 years?
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Not sure I understand your question.
What I’m saying is that may “number” is way higher than my actual expected need. Said another way, if I had $1M and FireCalc said I was right at 100 percent, I’d still add a lot to the million before I would consider it my “number” to retire on. Therefore, if I was getting close to my number, or like your example, I was just under or just over my “number”, it would bother me too much because I would have already inflated that number enough that those daily/monthly fluctuations wouldn’t bother me.
If that’s not clear, let me know and I’ll try a different way to explain it.
Note your other comment about yearly fluctuations - yes, yearly expenses can and do fluctuate. Some years significantly. For example, you might plan on buying a car every ten years. So, you add $3000 a year to your budget. So your budget will be favorable for 9 years and then bam, you’ll spend $30K on a car in year 10. Planned, yes, but still a very large fluctuation. That really shouldn’t effect your planning or your “number”, but it will impact your cash flow planning.
__________________
Every day when I open my eyes now it feels like a Saturday - David Gray
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02-12-2021, 06:33 AM
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#25
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pacific latitude 20/49
Posts: 7,677
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It was after,3 years retired. I had built the stash quickly through momentum trading. So I retired from 3BoDs and helped DW wind down her business.
In 2008, we had just bought a second home. So the downturn had me watching closely and we were OK when we confirmed that we had reduced our annual spending by 30% by living 6 months in Mexico. So our plan now extended forever with a substantial buffer.
Now 12 years later, the biggest challenge is how to,blow the dough.
__________________
For the fun of it...Keith
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02-12-2021, 09:01 AM
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#26
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Dec 2016
Location: Living the Dream!
Posts: 844
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Was very comfortable last Spring when I calc’d my monthly pension after taxes would exceed what I was taking home as an employee.
With zero long-term debt, medical covered, all three kids through university and now independent, and a few dollars in other investments, wife figured I was good to go into retirement.
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02-12-2021, 10:02 AM
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#27
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 188
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pjigar
OMY, and I am serious.
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For those of us over 30, what does OMY stand for?
"Oh My?"
"On My Year?"
"On My Yacht?"
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02-12-2021, 10:18 AM
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#28
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas: No Country for Old Men
Posts: 50,004
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CSdot
For those of us over 30, what does OMY stand for?
"Oh My?"
"On My Year?"
"On My Yacht?"
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* Acronyms and Slang Frequently Used on the Forum *
__________________
Numbers is hard
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02-12-2021, 10:21 AM
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#29
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: Southern California
Posts: 3,995
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For what it’s worth (FWIW), I think we use too many TLAs (three letter acronyms) on this forum. Is it really that hard to type the words out?
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02-12-2021, 10:23 AM
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#30
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas: No Country for Old Men
Posts: 50,004
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TANSTAAFL, but YMMV
__________________
Numbers is hard
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02-12-2021, 10:23 AM
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#31
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Apr 2010
Posts: 5,862
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We did not have a number. When we decided it was time, we reviewed the numbers, the pensions, out plans, and then pulled the plug. It was that easy.
We had been keeping track of what we believed we needed to retire in terms of cash flow and investments. No big number at the bottom though.
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02-12-2021, 12:37 PM
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#32
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Feb 2020
Location: Danville
Posts: 167
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I felt I had reached my number when I had 25x my annual living expenses at the age of 53. I worked for 2 more years after that full-time. I was having health issues and tried to push myself as long as I could because I knew I could not continue for too much longer. I knew once I stopped, I had no intention of having to go back to work. At the age of 54, I cut my hours back to 32 from 40. At 55, I cut back to part-time, 20 hours. By that time, I think I had about 30x annual expenses. I fully retired after 2 years of part -time at age of 56 in 2020 because of my health. By that time, I had 42x annual expenses. I currently have 55x+ my annual expenses. Luckily, everything worked out for me just in time. Even if there is another huge bear market, my draw down is so low, that I'll "bearly", lol--barely be affected. The hardest adjustment to retiring for me was the mental aspect of letting go of a paycheck.
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02-13-2021, 04:10 PM
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#33
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: San Francisco
Posts: 861
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The math is straightforward, when you've hit your number, even if it is at an all time market high, that's what your safe withdrawal rate is supposed to handle. But I think most people end up feeling worried about exactly that. I'd certainly feel better if I hit my number in the middle of a market crash.
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02-13-2021, 06:12 PM
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#34
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: Upstate SC
Posts: 294
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With pensions, SS, investments, and savings considered, our decision was driven by DW purchase (15 years ago) of her favorite planning books for her teaching job. Since they do not make these books anymore, she stated when the last one is used, we retire.
And so, we did. There was no magic number we were aiming for.
__________________
Don't sweat the small stuff! And realize, it is all small stuff!
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02-13-2021, 06:14 PM
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#35
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: Upstate SC
Posts: 294
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With pensions, SS, investments, and savings considered, our decision was driven by DW purchase (15 years ago) of her favorite planning books for her teaching job. Since they do not make these books anymore, she stated when the last one is used, we retire.
And so, we did. There was no magic number we were aiming for.
__________________
Don't sweat the small stuff! And realize, it is all small stuff!
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02-13-2021, 06:14 PM
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#36
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: Upstate SC
Posts: 294
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With pensions, SS, investments, and savings considered, our decision was driven by DW purchase (15 years ago) of her favorite planning books for her teaching job. Since they do not make these books anymore, she stated when the last one is used, we retire.
And so, we did. There was no magic number we were aiming for.
__________________
Don't sweat the small stuff! And realize, it is all small stuff!
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02-13-2021, 06:26 PM
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#37
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: Upstate SC
Posts: 294
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Sorry for the double post, I'm elderly.
__________________
Don't sweat the small stuff! And realize, it is all small stuff!
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02-13-2021, 06:28 PM
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#38
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: Upstate SC
Posts: 294
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And, there may have been some whiskey involved!
__________________
Don't sweat the small stuff! And realize, it is all small stuff!
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02-13-2021, 06:39 PM
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#39
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: May 2017
Posts: 121
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I hadnt planned far ahead to retire at 51. For 4 months I was fed up with my job(the poeple,not the work) so I did a bit of research and knew I could safely retire, so I went ahead and retired(I'm happier everyday). I just ran the numbers right now, I had 38x my yearly spending at that time, which was April 2017. I've actually spent less in retirement than before although I have always lived very frugally. That makes me the happiest(being frugal). I'm 99% in stocks. My yearly spending has been 2.3% of my net worth at retirement. My net worth is up 66% since I retired 46 months ago. So my yearly spending is 1.275% of my current net worth. If the stock market goes down 67% and stays there, my yearly spending would be 3.825% of that new amount(but still under 2.3% of my net worth at retirement).
I dont have a pension. I plan on taking SS at age 70.
I'm not nearly as rich as most people on here.
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02-14-2021, 05:00 AM
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#40
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Administrator
Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 22,974
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Our number was what we had on the day we retired.
It was actually a confluence of several factors that determined our retirement date. First, I had to wait until I was eligible for retiree health care for the two of us. Then, the young wife waited to hit 30 years of teaching, which substantially mitigated the early retirement penalty for her.
Financially, I had a number in mind for both income and portfolio value. Specifically, I wanted to have our two pensions cover our ordinary living expenses, which together with SS starting at 62, would also cover our expected travel expenses. Additionally, I wanted to have sufficient portfolio to cover the same thing at a 4% withdrawal rate (i.e. -- portfolio 25X the sum of pension plus SS), just in case something went awry with those sources of income. We hit both numbers almost right on the money as of the date of our retirement, although we would have gone anyway, even if the portfolio was a little light.
So we were independently SIRE and FIRE at the same time, with no change in our standard of living required. We did supplement our travel budget from our portfolio for the first year of retirement (7/19 through 6/20), but we haven't traveled due to COVID since last January. And since I start SS next month we won't have to do that going forward. Unless we want super luxury travel, we won't have to draw on our portfolio at all.
__________________
Living an analog life in the Digital Age.
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